|
I for one don't want a candidate beholden to the South. We've had 30-some years of Southerners controlling the show in Washington, it's time for some successful Reconstruction. Democrats on the state and local levels are certainly free to manage things as best they can there.
I don't know why you think the Culture War and such will carry on much longer. I don't want to be much ahead of the game, but the faux "family values" crap is losing ground and in decline. There's a dead ender 24% that will champion anything of the Past that is obsolete, be it the guillotine or drawing and quartering or bloodletting via leeches, but outside that set the motivation to keep on fighting against legal equal rights and fairness for women, gay people, non-'Christians', and non-white people is definitely flagging.
As it is, this present Republican run is wrenching their centrists/moderates out of their coalition. It's looking something like the Dixiecrat defection of 1965-68 that ended the reign of the FDR coalition of the Democrats then.
As for Kerry and bills, in the Massachusetts delegation to Congress Ted Kennedy has been the bill-writer and backroom coalition-builder. Kerry got his stripes doing the Iran-Contra and S&L investigations/hearings and the like- in oversight, in media pronouncements, appointee vetting. Let's just say that the past 11 years were rather futile, given the Republican incivility, and before that there were always large enough numbers of Quisling conservative Democrats that hampered the Party from getting much done for a number of years.
The only a few ways to be a relevant Congressman in Washington, most of them bad, but claiming to be about to run for President does achieve a certain amount of media coverage that otherwise wouldn't happen.
The Republican prospects in '08 are pretty bad- McCain with a broken Party behind him, or Allen with a damaged one, pretending to be able to clean up after their own. Democrats have no particularly ideal candidate, just a few seemingly adequate ones and a bunch of irrelevant ones stuck in the Eighties or Nineties. The Democratic candidate will have to put in a lot of work to fit defected moderate Republicans into the Party as a wing. There are a couple of measures no one loves that will have to be gotten through Congress- cleaning Republican misappointees out of the federal government, rescinding of tax cuts on the upper classes, repealing DoMA and mandating ex-felon vote reenfranchisement, handing Iraq over to the UN, just for starters. The '08 Presidential race will be about cleaning up the Bush mess. No Republican can credibly do that, and only a decent liberal Democrat would fully expend himself/herself politically to do it as comprehensively as is needed. Iraq will be off the table anyway. I just don't see how a centrist or moderate or Left (i.e. union) sort wins the nomination- there won't be money to do much new, there's lots of wonky stuff to deal with to clean up healthcare and energy economics and management, a lot has to be done in the way of investigating/purging to revamp the federal government, and a pile of social issue problems have to be settled by creating new law.
I think Kerry sees himself as a backup to Clinton at this point. A great of Hillary's fortunes, and Kerry's, turn on what the November election result is. If it's a Democratic sweep, as it should be, that favors Hillary. Kerry wouldn't mind a job cleaning up the federal government of Bush detritus and rot, I think.
|