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Drop the immigration bill.
As a pro-union, lunchbucket Democrat, I oppose the bill in its current form because I believe it will only institutionalize a large class of permanent and invisible low-wage workers; workers who will work for less, and workers who will be less likely to unionize. That will exert a downward pressure on wages and benefits for all workers. Until such time as the government cracks down on employer exploitation of immigrants--which Bush is unwilling to do--then I will oppose this bill. Of course the bill badly divides the Republican base, so as a Democrat, I am delighted to see Bush press the issue further.
But the fact of the matter here is that this immigration bill is damaging Bush's relationship with his base: social conservatives, many of whom are of working class backgrounds. It's the business conservatives who really want this bill, for they are the ones who have become accustomed to cheap, invisible labor, from the domestic workers in their McMansions to the manual laborers in their businesses.
Bush is in the mid to low 30's in the polls, suggesting that there is a noticeable chunk of his base that is upset with him, for various reasons. Indeed, the business conservatives are just as mad at Bush over the runaway government spending (and no presidential vetoes in 5 1/2 years), as the anti-immigrant conservatives are mad at him over the immigration issue. He should be unifying his base right now, not alienating them further with this bill. Hispanic voters are also mad at Bush over a wide range of other domestic and foreign policy issues. Passing this bill will not change their overall perceptions of Bush.
Recall late 1993, when Bill Clinton pushed for NAFTA. He won that fight, but at the terrible cost of demoralizing the Democratic base, which opposed the bill. We all know what happened in the 1994 elections, as a consequence. Republicans run the risk of making the same mistake in 2006: pass the bill, and anger anti-immigrant social conservatives, who then take a walk on election day; or try to pass the bill and fail, hence angering anti-immigrant social conservatives, and the cheap labor business conservatives who will feel let down. Either way, the GOP, and Bush, loses. It's just a question of how much. He should cut his losses and drop the bill.
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