Does the "anti-incumbent" movement hurt Dems or Repubs the most?

[kentuck]

If there is indeed an "anti-incumbent" movement? Are the people really in the mood to throw out all the incumbents? Or do they mostly have the Repubs in their sights? And if there is such a "movement", shouldn't we be encouraging people to "throw the bums out"? Are we afraid they may throw out the "good guys"?

I'm beginning to think this may be the best strategy to counter whatever the Repubs have up their sleeves in the last couple of months? You can bet they don't wish to talk about the issues - they will want to make it personal - very personal...

[Warpy]

1. What makes you think "we" will be able to control it?

I'm hearing a lot of rage at incumbents in both parties in New Mexico. I don't know what it's like in the rest of the country, but I would imagine the mood is similar. People are fed up. Prices are skyrocketing, their wages are flat, their houses are starting to lose value, and they're finally getting scared about their futures. It doesn't help to have blow dried bobbleheads on the tube every night chirp about how great the economy is. Every time they drive by a gas station or go buy some food they know the truth.

That rage may explode into some very odd directions. I'm making absolutely no predictions about this election. Angry people are just too unpredictable.

[kentuck]

2. You make an excellent point...

:) However, I'm willing to bet there are more "bums" in the Republican Party than in the Democratic Party...

[ComerPerro]

3. seems to be hurting Dems

[longship]

4. Not a single Congressional Dem seat is in serious jeopardy.

This is *not* an anti-incumbent movement!! It's an anti-Repuke movement.

There may be one or two Dem House seats that will turn, but there's likely going to be fifty Repuke seats going buh-bye in November. The election prediction crowd knows this, but they are afraid to say it because they've never seen anything like this year ever before. They're working off the map so they continue to make the safe predictions.

There's no doubt in my mind that this is going to be a Democratic Party sweep.
Hell, in the Senate, the Dems will likely lose no seats, and if Lamont wins, they're likely to take seven or eight more Senate seats from the Repukes.

But nobody's saying these things because things are so far out of wack.

[kentuck]

5. I would like to believe you are correct but...

Joe Lieberman was defeated and Cynthia McKinney was defeated...both incumbent Democrats. However, Joe could be mistaken for a Republican at times. And McKinney was just an exception... she got some bad press about the Capitol Police and she did not handle it very well, honestly... However, Alaska threw out the long-time Republican Murlowski, as Governor. Maybe we need a couple of more races before we can see if there is a trend??

[longship]

7. Lieberman is an aberration.

Any other Democrat would have conceded defeat and gone back to Congress for the balance of his last term in office. Not Joe.

McKinney received bad press because she basically messed up. Still, the seat will remain safely in Democratic Party hands.

The real trend will show if and when Lamont shows to be eclipsing Joe in the final. If that happens, which is looking increasingly likely, we're going to see possibly seven or eight new Senate seats and maybe fifty new House seats.

I really think that's what the pros are seeing now. I just don't think that they have the guts to lay down their "good names" on it.

[RoyGBiv]

6. Throw the bumbs out ...

That phrase was attached to an indentifiable "movement" in 1994, and it hurt Dems tremendously. It's why I was a vocal opponent of term limits for state and national congresspeople when that first came in vogue. The intent of the movement was to open a path for Republicans to take control.

Anti-incumbancy is not really the issue at the moment. As has already been suggested, it's too soon to identify a trend, but what makings of a trend that exist point to desire to move away from the status-quo.

[loyalsister]

8. Very risky ripple

We can't underestimate what kind of ripple that would have to internal state politics.
There are some Governors and state legislature seats across the country that such a strategy could put at risk.

[jerry611]

9. Both

It hurts both. The only reason it hurts the GOP more is because they have more seats.

But there are people that are just as pissed off at incumbant Democrats as they are with Republicans.