http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/HH01Ak02.htmlIt seems increasingly likely to many foreign observers that Iran's army has quietly acknowledged that it stands little chance of defeating the United States in the event of invasion, at least using conventional means.
However, its planning for an unconventional or guerrilla warfare campaign of resistance is far advanced and its confidence that it would prove ultimately successful has been greatly reinforced by the ongoing insurgency in Iraq and the resistance shown by Hezbollah in Lebanon.
In recognition of this, the US may be losing interest in the vast commitment needed for an invasion and the strain this would undoubtedly place on its already overstretched armed forces. The suspicion grows that any future US-led attack on Iran may be restricted to a massive series of air and missile strikes on strategic targets, most directly linked to Iran's nuclear program.
The US would certainly wish severely to damage not only nuclear-research facilities, but missile-production centers; chemical and biological warfare installations; the air-defense infrastructure, radar, command and control sites and probably the most significant air bases as well.
It is unlikely, however, that anything short of a ground invasion or the use of small nuclear weapons would do anything more than seriously degrade Iran's advanced weapons programs and at most set the country back some five years. The US must hope that it "gets lucky" and that a serious military humiliation for Iran would fatally undermine the government in Tehran and lead to an eventual change of regime.
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