You know, all of these predictions about the Democrats taking the House

[CatWoman]

mean NOTHING to me.

Absolutely NOTHING.

I've been burned too many fucking times.

I'll believe it when I see it.

Fool me once, er, can't get fooled again.

[Tandalayo_Scheisskopf]

1. Yup.

And if nothing else, skepticism is healthy. Keeps complacency from setting in.

[david_vincent]

2. I'm fully expecting rigged vote counting n/t

[Monkeyman]

3. Get everyone you know to vote and poll watch

Maybe you won't be fooled

[LA lady]

7. Be prepared!

In Louisiana you cannot be a poll watcher unless you are a certified commissioner!

The class is free and easy. But you MUST have your certificate to be at the polls.

[keta11]

4. You are damned right!!

I will believe it on 11/8 when I see it.
Given the mess Bush and the Republicans had created in the world before the 2004 elections, I thought Kerry was gonna win by 10points and Democrats take the House. I woke up depressed the day after.

[hedgehog]

5. Too many people think it's the Congressmen from other

districts that are the problem, not theirs. We have to win this district by district.

[The_Casual_Observer]

6. The mood is actually much worse than you can imagine for the rw . The

predictions are probably pretty good.

[NNadir]

8. Here is what Abraham Lincoln said:

"Of all God's creatures, the hen is the wisest. She only cackles after she has laid an egg."

[napi21]

9. I agree Cat. Someone was even on CNN this AM saying there is

is a big difference between the atmosphere today v/s 1994. Back then, everyone knew there was unrest in the voters, but it was a BIG surprise when the Pubs won so many seats. This time,Dems seem to be getting very overconfident. Not a good idea!

[KittyWampus]

25. Can you give examples of how Dems are very overconfident?

[napi21]

31. All the talking heads on TV are saying howgreat it looks for a Dem.

sweep this Nov. I know I've heard a number of Dems continually saying we WILL take over the House majority this Nov. and wiwth a little luck, we'll takethe Senate too! Ican't remember well enough to state the names of who said those things, so I won't name any right now.

I didn't mean that as a slam to anyone, just that, no matter how good the chances look, NO candidate should get too confident. It's imperative that they all continue to fight as if they were 10 points down!

[havocmom]

10. Too much shit going down regarding who gets to vote

Expecting plain ol election tampering my own self. Ever since Palast blew the whistle on those black soldiers who had their absentee ballots tossed out because they did not pick up some mail the GOP sent to their homes (they were deployed outside the country). Combine that test the GOP got away with and news of laptops missing, along with vet, troop, poor people, fed employess data ... I see the real danger of LOTS of people getting disenfranchised via various clerical errors this fall.

[BOSSHOG]

11. You have a healthy attitude CatWoman and I agree

Lets wait till the votes are counted but urge our candidates to campaign till the cows come home. They are expected to mosy into the barn sometime the morning of 8 November.

[pinto]

12. Can't fault your cynicism given the history. But lets GOTV.

The House is doable.

[rodeodance]

17. as J. Conyers said--there is reason to be optimist-yet need to get out

the vote and be vigalant

[Greyhound]

13. Fear not there's still time for the "centrist" Dems to snatch defeat from

the jaws of victory. Maybe we should start a pool of all the ways they can accomplish this and then take bets on which they will actually use.

You see, they dare not win both Houses in this election for if they do, they will have no cover to hide under when they don't prosecute the cabal for 6 years of maladministration and looting.
:kick:

[mitchtv]

15. See Phil Angelides for ways to lose in

Blue districts

[patrice]

14. I'm not that optimistic, because I've heard volunteer rates have

not increased.

The Democrat Party, i.e. a social group composed of Democrats, will not defeat what Republicans have been doing in the churches for these last few decades.

Unless and until the People themselves take direct responsibility for their politics, nothing much is going to change, maybe a few numbers here and there, but nothing substantial.

And, if you're wondering, yes, I am volunteering, every week.

[PresidentWar]

16. Too close too call right now, anyway.

And that's what burns me the most. After all the horrible crap the Rethugs have done in and out of government, it STILL is not an open and shut case in the eyes of the vast majority of voters.

Ponderous. Are we retarded as a nation?

[longship]

18. Hi CatWoman.

I know what you're thinking on this and I agree with your reasons.

However, I find myself holding onto hope in this case. We've been beaten down so badly the past six years or so, that hope is all I have left in me. I have no choice but to think that things have finally turned the corner. In fact, I really think that things are much worse for the Repukes than anybody is reporting.

I do not think that the polls are measuring the right things, or talking to representative samples. I think that something's happening this time which is going to shock people, especially the Reich Wing.

I know that I may be utterly disappointed the day after the election, but I have to either maintain this veil of optimism or go stark-raving mad now. I prefer to delay the process. ;-)

Consider this, just maybe the electorate are the ones who will be saying,
"Fool me once. er.. um... Can't get fooled again."

One thing's for sure. I'm not going to pay *any* attention to what the pundits are saying about it. You're right about that. My reasons are that I think we are well outside the domain of what previous history can teach us about 2006. This is going to be one for the record books.

Peace.

Still waiting for a Dem *leader* to step forward and tell us all that we have nothing to fear.

[Cleita]

19. Me too. I'm not counting my chickens yet. n/t

[AspenRose]

20. I feel you

I am right -----> THERE witcha, CatWoman

[freeplessinseattle]

21. they must mean something to you

if they inspired you to start a thread.

[CatWoman]

30. yes, they do mean something to me

and I've been wanting to start this thread for some time.

Happy?

[saltpoint]

22. Agree that it's too early to break out the champagne, but even GOP polls

are showing their people in increasing danger of voters handing their asses to them on November 7th.

GOP ads can be pretty nasty any old time, but I bet they'll outdo themselves this fall. That will be an indication of how tenuous their hold is according to their own internal polling.

[NC_Nurse]

23. I'm beyond cynical now...

if the Dems can f*ck it up, they will. Plus, we have yet to see how low the smear campigns will stoop this time out.
I'm sure they have not even gotten started with the "TERRA, GAYS, WAR ON CHRISTIANS" yet. Another pleasant campaign season.
:puke: :puke: :puke: :puke: :puke: :puke:

[applegrove]

24. Good on ya! Really. I mean that. Remember how Rove tried to downplay

expectations of Bush debate with Kerry? They dissed him for a few weeks before the debate so that all Bush had to do was overcome expectations of the public and it would feel to "the base" like a "win".

No doubt the campaign has been kicked off of late ("you don't roll out a new ad campaign in August") and making Dems overly optimistic is one tactic. Painting Rove as out of the loop on any Repuke House or Senate campaigns is likely more of it.

I guess Rove is at home knitting or something for the next two months. And he apparently has given away all his disks on local races.. the information he has collected over a lifetime of being a political hack. I'm sure there are no copies. I'm sure he will not be running any numbers.

And really - I think the faulty exit polls made Dems overly optimistic on election day last time. Making Dems complacent, overly optimistic, putting "his team" down... it all is just smoke & mirrors.

You called it! Don't believe Dems have the House until they actually do and the numbers are in.

[WillyT]

26. You Talkin Ta ME !!!

LOL!!!

Happy Labor Day, Cat !!!

:bounce::loveya::bounce:

[proud patriot]

27. No Complacency

:grr:

[Lexingtonian]

28. oh, I'm fairly sure of it

Once burned, twice shy and all that, sure.

If you were a Republican, why would you want to reelect this House?

There's a pyramid hierarchy of tiers of national power. The bottom tier is the states, where more than enough Republican leaners have given up on their slew of wacko, corrupt, useless, and obsolete governors and state legislature majorities. Democrats are going to make large gains there, and the evidence for that is so clear that the media and Parties moved their attention to higher tiers of power many months ago.

The House is about controlling the states somewhat via money apportionment, national taxes/economic policy, and a way of apportioning the tax money (aka ethics). I don't see moderate Republicans believing that this House is doing any of that right anymore, and they're the crucial bloc of voters in border and somewhat Blue states to Republican House Reps.

Decisions of the diplomacy portion of war and peace and domestic social laws and keeping the House in line, that's pretty much the job of the Senate. The key voting bloc, classical right winger Republicans (the people who put Republican Senators over the top in border and somewhat Red states), haven't lost faith as completely in their Senate majority as in their House majority. But it's not much faith anymore.

Military operations and fighting anarchists (these days, 'terrorists') are the business assigned the Presidency, plus limiting what the Senate wants done. Crashing a Presidency in office is a matter of the last large bloc of hardcore partisans, in our present case the bigots/social conservatives/ Christian Right, giving up on Bush/Cheney. Which they haven't yet. (But they are acutely sensitive to being lied to and overtly betrayed, and a desperate Presidency with no other support and no cards left to play will do that- as Nixon did.)

(There's also the Supreme Court, whose job as a federal power is in juxtaposition between the Presidency and the Senate, protecting one from power overreaches of the other. And they tip politically between when the Senate does and when the Presidency does.)

So imho, there's a hard correlation between solid support blocs remaining for a monolithic party like the present Republicans and the tiers of power they lose after absolute majorities at all levels. Under 45% unwavering support left they start losing their majorities of legislators, judges, and governors in the state governments. When under 38%, House majority is lost. When it's 32% or below, a Senate majority can't be maintained. Stacked Supreme Courts change course when it's side is a bit under 30%, as a guess. And the Presidency cannot be held when its last bloc of supporters cracks at the 24% mark.

We're in low thirties percentage solid support for the Bush GOP and a few percent soft support, and that fits to their losing the House and keeping 51 seats in the Senate as the pundits/consultants predict. But there's a trend across the whole Bush Presidency of relentless breakdown of solidity of support (Republican) or trust in them (Democratic or independent) at a remarkably constant rate of 1% per month, though when this breakdown crosses thresholds between voter blocs it takes roughly two or three months for the political consequences to manifest themselves in the public arena and realization of a change in the public consciousness. Hurricane Katrina aftermath coincided with and manifested the 45% threshold being crossed, imo. The DeLay and Abramoff fallout early this year goes with the 38% threshold falling. Lieberman losing and the Senate Democrats deciding to attack on Iraq goes with the 32% threshold crossing in sight (maybe crossed, I'm not sure yet).

The Supreme Court ruling in Hamdan (and soon in the NSA stuff) shows their awareness that the Nixon agenda (e.g. of expanding the Presidency) is very close to the decisive amount of rejection by The People that kills it for all time, and that the time for the Court to turn away from that so as to remain in touch with The People is near. (I consider John Roberts a very smart fellow as regards the larger politics of the Court.)

[BeFree]

29. It means nothing

I don't believe this conversation matters...

Not until such time as you can show me that the votes are counted as cast.

Until then (btw, you can't) I shall believe that the republican owners of the vote counting devices will steal another election.

So any discussion about dems winning is moot and just so much blow-hardiness. We will lose, I'd bet on it.

I do not say this lightly, it is in fact said with a heavy heart, but lightened by the chance that after this election all of you will finally realize that our votes are not being counted as cast.

[OzarkDem]

32. Donate and volunteer

the only way to make sure it happens.

[mwb970]

33. The House! Let's talk about the Senate.

There was an interesting report on NBC Nightly News this evening saying that although mere months ago "no one" thought it was possible for the Democrats to take the House, at this point it is considered a near certainty. The funny part was, the correspondent went right on to say that, of course, it is highly unlikely that the Democrats will take the Senate as well. Apparently the irony detector was broken again.

As an aside, I thought months ago that the Democrats would take the House. So it wasn't really "no one".

[Philosoraptor]

34. I'm prepared to live and fight beyond November

And I refuse to feel sorry for myself if I don't get everything I want, we're in a long fight.

[Beelzebud]

35. I agree. I'll believe it when I see it.

I'm voting, and I'll be hoping we win, but I don't consider this election won, until it's actually won.

[RagAss]

36. Amen....too much at stake....the neocons need a draft....

fodder for the next 3 wars they have planned...do you think they are going to risk a free election??...hahahhaha....forget it...

[mnhtnbb]

37. Democrats need to be preparing NOW for election shenanigans

of all kinds, all across the country.

[elocs]

38. I'm worried, too, about all of the confidence that it is a done deal.

Not having it happen when you expected it is the worst. Right along with being told by the Republicans that if they keep control it is an affirmation by the American voters.

[Arugula Latte]

39. Yep.

Can't help but think that these evil fuckers will do anything in their power, and I mean ANYTHING, to retain power. Human lives mean nothing to them -- look at Iraq.