I'm pessimistic about 2006

[Ignacio Upton]

I don't wanna be such a downer right now, but here goes:

Even though we are little more than two months removed from Election Day, I feel like the GOP will somehow pull it off yet again. I'm worried about our Senate chances in PA, MD, NJ, MN, MO and WA as polls in all of these states show tightening races (I'm especially worried about the first three, because Casey is fumbling, Menendez is having problems, and Mfume may end up being the nominee and force us to divert money away from other races to help him).

At the same time, I have this over-riding sense of negativity, pulsating through me with fear that the GOP will win again because they are just better than us when it comes to campaigning. If elections were held on random dates, we would win every time. But the way in which the election cycle is set up, it allows for months of dirty tricks and lies. It's an indescribable feeling of dread. One that is abstract. In my mind right now, something keeps telling me "we're gonna lose, we're gonna lose!" I had this same dread at this point in 2002 and 2004, and up until this weekend when I saw Casey debate Santorum, and I read some polls for the other Senate races, I was pretty optimistic.

I know that this thread may be considered heresey, and perhaps inflammatory, but I'm genuinely worried, and like a scared kid rushing into his parents bedroom in the middle of the night because he had a nightmare, I want someone to assure me "it'll be okay" and that we won't have to deal with yet two more years of unchecked and unfettered conservative destruction in this country.

[Selatius]

1. What's worrying me is election fraud.

This is the biggest thing in my mind.

Everything else is not yet in place, but if this is one issue is not resolved, we could have problems.

[orpupilofnature57]

3. That needs to be the biggest task of both houses , their protection

so theres a real chance to get it done.

[saltpoint]

2. Be of good cheer. Bob Casey is going to bury Santorum alive.

Ohio's Blackwell is on his last 9 weeks of public service before Buckeye voters sweep his lying ass out of office.

Claire McCaskill will unseat the comprehensively nondescript Jim Talent in Missouri.

Dr. Wulsin will whomp Mean Jean Schmidt in OH-01.

Of course the Rethugs will do their smear tactics. And we can almost SCHEDULE the terra alerts.

But this time the villagers know the shepherd boy is lying about the wolf.

Big night on November 7th for the blue team.

[Ignacio Upton]

5. I offer this quote from HK Mencken:

"nobody ever went broke underestimating the intelligence of the American public."

...It doesn't matter if Bush's job approval stays low (which is a good thing no matter what.) As long as the voters in the individual races are offered snake oil by the individual candidates, they'll buy in to it.

[saltpoint]

9. Sometimes that happens, yes, and Mencken is a refreshing

reality-check in those times, but this year the climate favors a serious upending of Republicans by Democrats.

Long a red, red state, Indiana is poised to send 3 Democrats to Congress to replace Neanderthal Rethugs. And again, this is INDIANA.

Menendez is holding a lead. So's Casey. Klobuchar is ahead in Minnesota. Washington State looks safe. McCaskill is making Talent work, and may whip him. Allen's recent ethnic slur has threatened his re-election odds, and some Virginians I know well believe the race is tilting toward Webb.

Brown whips DeWine in Ohio. Lamont prevails with a loyal Democratic vote in Connecticut. And I think Sheldon Whitehouse will be RI's next U.S. Senator.

Also we beat the crap out of them for the House as well.

Big year for Democrats.

[European Socialist]

4. I know the feeling--too many Dems playing it safe--like a prevent...

defense by the Detroit Lions in the 3rd Quarter.

[Ignacio Upton]

7. I wish that I could single-handedly commandeer each major campaign

and change their strategies. Granted that I'm watching things from the sidelines, but some of the mis-steps that campaigns have taken defy common sense. Especially in the case of Casey debating Santorum. I'm also upset that our Democratic "leaders" aren't pounding Bush on national security in the run up to the 9/11 Anniversary, and why they aren't talking about how Bush wants to privatize Social Security again. It's one thing to timidly point it out in press releases (which is all they've been doing so far), but it's another to aggressively and vociferously point it out in tv ads.

[pa28]

34. And like John Madden would say . . .

A prevent defense is a good way to prevent you from winning.

We have more than enough material to keep them on the ropes until election day. I'm hoping our leadership has the guts to use it this time instead of fearing backlash some poll says it will create.

[AX10]

6. Let me just say that we are going to retain our seats in...

Washington State, New Jersey, and Minnisota. Ben Cardin is favored to win the primary in Maryland. If he does than he will win the GE by 10%-18%. Mfume is a good man, but sadly, his very liberal record will be attacked brutally.

I too am concerned though that something will cause the GOP to "win" again.

[FARAFIELD]

10. i agree

With the above, I think we have four of the seats down pretty good, Talent beat Jeane Carnahan in the special election last time, but not by much, Mccaskill is a good candidate (despite 2004) rememeber Talent lost the 2000 Gov. race then came back two years later and won the senate seat, McCaskill is doing the same thing but in a better environment, still with all the people i have there, a very red state. Anyhoo, Repuke Bushbots always close the deal lately and so they have the advantage, we just have to actually get all the new dems that registered to actually show.

[Ignacio Upton]

11. Cardin is losing in the primary to Mfume in one poll

That first poll where he was crushing him is considered an outlier. Mfume will be a disaster if he's the nominee, because he's vulnerable to allegations of sexual harrassment and favoratism at the NAACP, and he has very little cash on hand. Mfume supporters claim that's because he doesn't take corporate money, but really, the guy raised less than $200,000 in the last quarter! The Democratic candidates in my home Congressional District have done better than that.

And in NJ, Menendez is TRAILING Kean in the polls, partly due to a combination of Corzine's problems, his father's name, and because of Kean's accusations that Menendez is corrupt himself:
http://www.northjersey.com/page.php?qstr=eXJpcnk3ZjczN2Y3dnFlZUVFeXkzJmZnYmVsN2Y3dnFlZUVFeXk2OTg3NTE1JnlyaXJ5N2Y3MTdmN3ZxZWVFRXl5Mg==
While NJ polls make things out to be closer than they really, are, Kerry was not trailing Bush here in 2004, and Corzine was not losing in a single poll to Forrester in 2005. The 2006 NJ Senate is definately closer than 2004 and 2005 were.

[AX10]

16. There is a high level of ambivalence in NJ about politics.

That is why you see neither candidate near 50% at this time.

[Cleita]

8. I too believe election fraud is our biggest worry.

We have two months to figure out how we are going to catch them in the act if they try and even better make it hard for them to do it.

[GOPBasher]

12. Hey are you from central NY? I live here now, and I really like Maffei.

Unfortunately, I'm moving, so I won't vote for him. (They need my votes where I'm moving, anyway -- it's Michigan.) But he is really cool.

Anyway, first I want to say that Casey is going to destroy Santorum, so don't fret about that. After that, I don't know. Polls look good for us, but polls don't take into account Diebold machines, Republican fraud, and their dirty tricks at the polls. If the elections are fair, we'll do well.

[Ignacio Upton]

15. No, I'm from downstate

But I go to Syracuse for school, and I plan on helping Maffei's campaign (I wanted to feature his campaign logo on my sig, but the file size of his logo is too large for this site.) My GOP Congresswoman (Sue Kelly) likely win re-election because the Democrats in my district have a crowded field that's facing off during a late primary date. It also costs a fortune to advertise in the Hudson Valley (NYC media market), but not in central NY.
For the record, I'm more worried about the Senate than I am the House. With Senate races, there is more of a chance that voters will say "I don't like the GOP, but I like Kean/Steele/Kennedy/McGavick/Talent/Chafee." I'm afraid that those voters who always say "I vote for the man, not the party" will screw us in November. I honestly think that we could lose seats in the Senate, but it would be a net loss instead of an complete loss, because I think that we will chip away at least one current GOP-held seat.

[GOPBasher]

20. What do you think of this congressional race here?

Walsh has been unbeatable for so long. It's a gerrymandered district, and he has all the typical incumbant advantages. But this time the Dems are really running hard, which they haven't done here in about a dozen years or so. Have you seen any polls? Do we have any chance to send Walsh packing?

[Ignacio Upton]

21. I've only recently started following this race

But I've heard that it's Walsh's toughest in ten years. Other than that, I don't know yet. I have a feeling that it will be close at the very least.

[GOPBasher]

25. That's somewhat good news. n/t

[longship]

13. Re: Election fraud.

Gaming a presidential contest in a state or two where there is a friendly Secy of State is entirely different than rigging some 50 House races and six or seven statewide Senate races all across the nation. For one, there is no way that all those races are controlled by partisan Repukes. Not all Secys of State are corrupt. Not all election commissioners are corrupt.

In my opinion, there's no way to game things this time because there's too many races in play. The Repukes may try some things, but it would take a considerable effort all across the nation to save the House, let alone insure a Senate win. If the Democrats are vigilent, there's no way that they will be able to game the system this time. It's too big of a task to pull off without detection.

Note that I'm not saying that the Repukes won't try. But if we have poll watchers, election workers, and a response team in place, we might catch them at it.

[AX10]

17. Their voter fraud tactics are going to cut down on out margin...

of victory, most likely.

[longship]

23. Maybe, however...

Imagine that you're a major backroom Repuke strategist. You've got over fifty seats in play, maybe over sixty altogether, and more becoming competitive every single day. You've got no good news.

What do you do to game this system?

The bottom line is that they don't even control the election machinery in most of the places. They only have one Blackwell and Harris is gone. How many Secys of State are willing to risk prison for these guys? How many election comissioners?

So, they are basically limited to the games that they can do behind the scenes, as a party. The problem is, that these are precisely the kind of tricks that tend to draw press coverage, faked letters from the board of elections, etc. If you are a Repuke operative, are you going to risk jail for something which hasn't a snowball's chance in Hell of succeeding?

There will be some tricks, like before, but they will be badly scattered and concentrated only in areas where Repukes have an insider. That is *NOT* going to help them stop the steamroller.

[AX10]

24. Look we could win 40 house seats, but their tactics could take several...

of them away. We need a net gain of 25 seats (228 total) in the house to be able to govern.

[Ignacio Upton]

26. We need 15 to govern

But that's assuming we'll keep all of our's (which is likely at this point.)

[AX10]

27. Bud Cramer and Gene Taylor will NOT support Pelosi for speaker.

Also, Ken Lewis who is running in Kentucky might not support Pelosi either. We need a margin of comfort just in case there are any defections, loss of seats during the next congress.

[Ignacio Upton]

29. I hope they don't do that

But Lieberman-esque postuering is the last thing we need from them.

[AX10]

31. I believe they are doing so because their districts are very conservative.

That is the case at least for Taylor. He has gone after Bush on Katrina, Iraq, the budget, Social Security, and the economy.

[longship]

28. Forty?

That's about right. If Dems get with the program, we could get forty.
Nothing that's happening right now convinces me that the Repukes will be able to reverse things.

[AX10]

30. Nothing? The Campaign's "official" season is just begining.

[longship]

32. That's right.

But the electorate has already substantially formed their opinion in spite of the fact that the campaign is just beginning. This is why many of us are saying that the Repukes can do little to change things. It's not likely that ChimpCo is going to reverse course. It's not likely that the Repuke Congress is going to start implementing the necessary reforms between now and November.

The only thing that they have is "stay the course" and their dirty tricks, both of which only drives more voters away from them and into our fold.

As long as the Democrats are informing people how they are the solution, there will be no stopping us this time.

People are ultra pissed at the Repukes. They see nothing but failure, including 9/11. All the previous Repuke tricks will fail them this time because the electorate is wise to what's going on,,, er, what's *not* going on.

[AX10]

33. The last time the electorate was this angry was in 1974.

[longship]

36. Maybe true.

But I think this eclipses 1974. ChimpCo has made a holy mess of things and people know it damned well.

I really think this has sunken deep into the psyche of the country. I think that things are so bad for the Repukes that on the eve of the campaign, major news outlets are predicting a big loss for them. When was the last time that happened? I don't think even 1974.

They were also hugely pissed in 1968, which is what got us all into this Repuke mess today. Without Nixon, we'd have no neocons today.

Gawd. Boggles the mind. What if Bobby hadn't been shot?

[AX10]

38. How much of an influence do you think the media will have in helping...

the GOP though?

[Ignacio Upton]

19. Agreed

I'm not worried about Diebold or fixed elections on a massive scale, because there are too many races to steal. FL in 2000 and OH in 2004 only happened because there were Secretary of States (Katherine Harris and Kenneth Blackwell) who were strong Bush supporters (I think that both of them chaired Bush's election campaigns in the states.)

[mnhtnbb]

37. Democrats have to officially recognize election fraud existed

in 2000 and 2004, before they can implement the strategies to prevent the dirty tricks that are coming from having an effect.

So far, I have yet to hear a unified chorus of acknowledgement from Dem leaders that Republicans cheated in both 2000 and 2004.

[kentuck]

14. What I fear most...

is not that the Repubs will keep the House and/or Senate, but that, if the Democrats did not win at least one of the Houses of Congress, many Democrats would revolt and bolt the Party. They could not take it anymore and would be looking for a more aggressive and progressive Party. Unfortunately, I don't think there is one that can be competitive. Our only hope is to change the Democratic Party from within if we hope to have any chance at all, if that were to happen?

[EstimatedProphet]

18. What I see happenning:

I keep seeing this scenario played out in my mind, when I think of the upcoming elections...

Republicans do worse and worse in the polls, to the point that the day before election day, they are publically ridiculed by everyone. They have maybe 5% support. Yet - they sweep all the elections. The press invents some cock&bull story as to why it is all the polls were wrong, and everyone walks off, kicking rocks in the dirt and mutterring. In other words, they so blatantly and obviously steal the election that it is apparent without proof, gloat about it openly, and people just respond by saying "Wait until next time!"

That's what I'm really afraid of.

[necso]

22. "Win" or not, we fight on.

"Win" or not, we will have to fight on.

Now is the time to turn the tide of battle, and that of itself is much (if it's accomplished); it's no time to falter. And it's no time to play it safe.

We have to attack without relenting -- and without giving any quarter.

Double tough, triple smart -- no fear.

[Mz Pip]

35. I'm more concerned about 2008

but that's another thread.

I think we'll take back the House. The Senate I'm not so sure about. 2008? Serious doubts and concerns.

Mz Pip
:dem: