Daily Kos: Pressuring ABC: What You Should Know About the TV Biz

[Pirate Smile]

Pressuring ABC: What You Should Know About the TV Biz

by Rippe
Fri Sep 08, 2006 at 09:07:11 AM PDT

In my twenty-year marketing career, I've purchased over a million dollars in television advertising on behalf of my clients. To do justice to those ad buys, I've had to learn the inner-workings of the TV business - ratings, programming, news, promotions, spot production and of course, the buying process itself.

I've read most of the fantastic diaries this week about the pressure we're exerting on ABC in advance of its Clinton-bashing fiction piece, "The Path to 9/11." If you'll indulge me, I'd like to add a few notes to that conversation that seem to be missing from previous posts.

If I do this right, we'll have even more actionable ways to put the hurt on the Advocating Bush Company (ABC, for the acronym-challenged).


Rippe's diary :: ::
There are a few items that you might find interesting...

Networks care about two things, and you're not one of them.

There are three "A's" in the world of television. In order of importance to the networks, they are:

1. Advertisers
2. Affiliates
3. Audience

Ad revenue is king. Much of the commercial time is sold months in advance, in the spring, during a season called "upfront." This is when networks preview their fall schedule for major advertisers and advertising agencies. The networks project certain ratings for each program (more on that below), and offer discounted ad rates to the agencies that buy large ad schedules well in advance. By doing this, the networks "sell out" a large percentage of their commercial inventory long before the fall season even begins. Shows that were well-received during the upfront period will have premium price tags on them later, when inventory is more limited. TV advertising is sold on a supply/demand system, and one advertiser can "bump" another by offering a higher rate.

"The Path to 9/11" is airing with "limited commercial interruption," according to ABC - but the sponsors and advertisers that are involved purchased their airtime months ago. Their participation in this "movie" is linked to other ABC ad buys. In other words, the more they bought on ABC this fall, the lower the rates went. It's for this reason that you won't see a lot of advertisers pulling out of the show - because their ad rates in "Path" are inextricably tied to their ad rates elsewhere on ABC.

So how should the netroots pressure advertisers, if they're unlikely to pull out and jeopardize their "Grey's Anatomy" rates? The only real effective route is organized boycott. Individual boycotts (you and I sending emails that threaten to boycott) are viewed as anecdotal, even in large numbers. Organized boycotts - those with the strength of group influence - are much more likely to cause and advertiser to think twice, and to subsequently distrust the future "sales pitches" of the offending networking (ABC). This is why Focus on Family is occasionally effective - because the boycott effort is organized and influenced.

If ad revenue is king, then keeping affiliates happy is, well, queen. Your local ABC affiliate depends on the network to produce solid programming - especially programming that leads directly in or out of locally-produced newscasts.

The local affiliate has only a few commercials to sell in the network programs, because the majority of ads have already been bought by national advertisers (see above). Where the local affiliate makes its money is in their own newscasts, where they control (and make) 100% of the advertising inventory.

Telling the local affiliate that you won't watch "The Path to 9/11" is like throwing a lawn chair off the Titanic; it's meaningless because they control so little of the ad revenue there. The only real way to pressure the local affiliate is to stop watching their news. If you do that, the affiliate will exert its pressure uphill, to the network. And the network can hardly afford to piss off its affiliates.

THIS IS IMPORTANT: many of you have been sending emails to your local affiliates via their websites. Those emails, in the vast majority of cases, are going to the affiliate's Program Director. To be effective, you must send your emails to the General Sales Manager. He/she is the one person most concerned with the boycotts, news viewership, and the correlation between ratings and ad revenue.

Find a complete list of ABC affiliates here http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_ABC_television_affiliates.

Finally, there's you, the audience. Obviously, the networks all want to "win" their timeslots - to attract the largest number of viewers during a specific time period. But ad revenue is not based on how many people watch - it's based on how many people are expected to watch.

TV works on a "ratings projection" system. Both the network and the local affiliate estimate the number of viewers for a particular program, and base their ad rates on those estimates. Essentially, they pull these numbers out of their collective asses, over inflating audience projections to garner the highest ad rates. Savvy media buyers will insist on what's called a "point guarantee" - that is, an agreement that if actual audience levels fail to meet projections, the ad rate will be retroactively lowered and credited.

But the moral to the story is simple: of the three "A's", the advertisers and affiliates can inflict substantially more pain on the network than the audience.

But there is a fun way for the audience to be heard.

If you own a DVR, read this.

Your cable or satellite company (DirecTV, Dish Network) is reporting to ABC (and the other networks) what programs you have on a "timer." If your DVR, for instance, is set to record "Desperate Housewives" or "Grey's Anatomy," ABC likely knows it. And those ratings projections will go up, along with ad rates, and finally, the profit in Mickey's pocket.

Last night, I deleted all my ABC timers. There's a fairly good chance that I'll still watch "Desperate Housewives" when it debuts on the 24th, but I won't give ABC the benefit of knowing that in advance. And certainly, you should not DVR "The Path to 9/11."

I could go on, but I'll stop there. I appreciate you making it this far!

If you have questions, I'll hang around the comments!

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2006/9/8/12711/37922

Another thing mentioned in the comments is that if you have TIVO, you can downrate all the ABC shows.

"Drive it home - Downrate DVR "Suggestions" too (10+ / 0-)

'Last night, I deleted all my ABC timers. There's a fairly good chance that I'll still watch "Desperate Housewives" when it debuts on the 24th, but I won't give ABC the benefit of knowing that in advance. And certainly, you should not DVR "The Path to 9/11.'"

A crucial segement of the DVR has "suggestions" that are automatically recorded based on your prior selections. The broadcasters pay a premium to get their suggested programs automatically recorded to your queue. If you downrate these ABC programs it helps put the hurting on too.

Get dirty - downrate all ABC shows on DVR (5+ / 0-)
you can thumbs down or downrate all the ABC shows on your guide - these ratings are gathered minute by minute...

Just go into each program info screen and select thumbs down - mine allows three negative ratings.

It's kinda fun. If they pull the 9/11 program I will release their channel ratings on my DVR by uprating them. For now they are hostage."

[maddezmom]

1. good post

:thumbsup:

[Sydnie]

2. Certainly nothing stopping those of us with TIVO from

giving three thumbs down to this mess right now, is there? After all, it should already be in the menu, right?

I'm going to do just that right now on mine.

Great suggestion. Thanks.

[populistdriven]

14. This a great idea! (and fun too)

[sandnsea]

3. Good info

Particularly contacting the sales manager. Whenever I'm truly pissed at a big company, I always contact the sales dept. They don't want anything making their job harder.

[Generic Other]

4. A revolutionary course

in the art of monkeywrenching.

[tomreedtoon]

5. At last, someone who knows the business!

What's nauseated me about the forty other threads yelling "Boycott ABC!" is the self-righteous opinion of the posters. "If I don't watch and I boycott those sponsors, I'll bring ABC to its knees!"

I personally believe that local action - boycotting the local newscasts and telling the sales manager why - has the best chance of affecting this atrocity. Local news costs the most for the station; in most cases, it's the only local programming the station does. Making the ABC affiliate drop to second place in the news, even by a few ratings points, can cause a severe loss of revenue. It can get people fired. Of course, the boycotters should explain why they are boycotting; a panicked local station might think that people are avoiding their station because they have more black reporters than the other stations. (No kidding. News directors think that way.)

Ultimately, in the unlikely event that Democrats win Congress and the White House back, broadcasters have to be made more responsible to the public. They use our airwaves, they are given extraordinary power over our lives. Things like restoring the "equal time" provisions and the need to serve community needs with local programming aren't "sexy" political issues, but as you can see now, they affect our lives directly. (Limbaugh and his fellow louts get away with it because no one can challenge the licenses of broadcasters for irresponsible behavior any more.)

[wiley]

6. Thanks. Reprogrammed the DVR schedule last week

[Skidmore]

7. Question from a technically challenged person.

"Deleting the ABC timer" applies only to those with the capacity to record on a TIVO type device, right? We have DishTv with a regular receiver. Can it apply to a regular digital receiver, too? If so, what do we need to do?

[populistdriven]

15. Yes, You would need a receiver that does timeshifting (ie pause / rewind)

[UTUSN]

8. Kick n/t

[Seabiscuit]

9. Interesting ... Kick nt

nt

[helderheid]

10. Kick - will delete my timers for certain!

[AusTexDem]

11. DVR tip was helpful. Thanks for the thread.

hope it doesn't get lost

[Chimichurri]

12. thumbs down to ABC programs and I deleted all my Tivo

shows - grey's anatomy and desperate housewives. Thanks for posting this. I don't peruse Daily Kos anymore.

[populistdriven]

13. Another thought to people wanting to cut up their Disney DVD's

Make a backup copy first in case you regret your decision (anydvd + dvdshrink + nero) PM me if you want to know how to do this.

Then SELL them on Ebay or even better, take them to a local used DVD store. When the DVDs are resold disney doesn't make a penny off of them and it pushes down the price of new DVDs. I buy used DVD's every chance I get.

[yorkiemommie1]

16. done and thank you for the tips!

n/t

[Miss Chybil]

17. Who paid for the production? $40 million.

Who paid for it?

[Mr_Spock]

18. We will find out.

And the source of the money is being looked into now - we WILL get to the bottom of this propaganda film.


Heads are going to roll.

[Miss Chybil]

19. I just edited my post. You answered my question, anyway! Thanks. nt

[Mr_Spock]

20. This story has legs.

ABC may think they can weasel out from under this cloud - the cloud hasn't even begun to form yet.

I am not going to take my kids to Disney this winter if they don't fix this. That's a lot of money lost from me.

[ladym55]

21. Thanks for the info

We don't have DVR or TiVo, but I hadn't contacted my local affiliate yet. I now know the best person to contact. I had already decided to stop watching ABC and the local affiliate. I'll make sure the local gets the picture completely.

[AnnieBW]

22. This Means I Can Still Watch "Lost"

But I just don't need to pre-set it. Good! I was torn between boycotting and watching. I'm a dedicated Lostie (my ID on The Fuselage is the same as my ID here). I was really torn, because it's the only ABC show that I watch. I also know that boycotting doesn't do much good, from our days boycotting Sci-Fi Channel after they cancelled Farscape.

I didn't think of doing the "thumbs down" thing. Mostly because I never use those keys on my Tivo.

[Pirate Smile]

23. It definitely helps to get inside info from someone who knows the

industry. That is one of my favorite things about the internet (there are many others also, of course).

[OPERATIONMINDCRIME]

25. Except I Believe This Guy Is Either A Fraud Or Doesn't Know What He Is

talking about.

He makes some good suggestions, but his theory on DVR timers is just crap. Advertising rates ARE NOT manipulated, altered, revised or calculated in any way based on what someone has set to record on their DVR. The fact he states so clearly this suggestion as if it is fact makes me question his entire authenticity or credibility on the subject at all.

The only real driver of advertising rates right now is Nielsen. Tivo is looking to get into the game, and just last month launched a division to start supplying data to advertisers. But this is still in too young of a stage to be used right now to determine true market share. It mainly is used right now by advertisers to see if their commercials are being watched or their commercials are being skipped. They may also use it to compare the viewership numbers to the Nielsen data, but the Nielsen data is still the premier source for calculating ad rates. Furthermore, the author makes it sound like everyone would be included. This is not so. In fact, others have hinted that as long as you own a TIVO you'd be included in the Tivo ratings. Also untrue. Even though Tivo has just launched a division to compete with Nielsen, it is still using a sampling methodology. They are only taking random samples of 20,000 households out of 4.4 million. That means someone who owns a Tivo has less than a half of a percent chance to even be factored. And like I said, even then it isn't really being used yet for purposes of determining ad rates. I have no doubt that in the near future Tivo and other DVR's will be factored in somehow to the calculation of the all important ad rates and market share. But that day is not yet here. So the fact that this anonymous guy is telling everyone to erase their timers makes him a total fraud in my opinion, as I can't find ANYTHING ANYWHERE to substantiate this wild claim that it is used aggregately to determine ad rates.

In fact, I lay down a DU challenge to him to prove it, rather than just say it. I ask anyone to search online and educate themselves on the subject. It will become clear quite quickly as to how young the Tivo ratings system is and how it is mainly used right now to give feedback to advertisers as to whether their commercials were watched or skipped. Nowhere will you find a mention that supports the notion that this data is already used to affect ratings numbers or proposed market share in turn affecting what they will pay for ad space. Like I said, that day may come soon, but it isn't yet here. Right now, Nielsen still owns that game. And remember, this guy makes it sound like anyone with a DVR is included and can impact the numbers used to determine ad rates. I challenge anyone to find something that substantiates that absurd claim. And remember, to all those saying anyone with a Tivo is captured is merely ignorant of the truth. Tivo is using a random sample of 20,000 of 4.4 million households. That leaves a less than a half of a percent chance they'd even be noticed if they actually were Tivo subscribers. That's probably an important fact to put out there, but it is so conveniently omitted.

Well, that's enough. I'm off to bed. But please, don't take the postings of some anonymous guy on a blog somewhere as the gospel, just cause he says so. And before you counter with "hey, ain't you an anonymous guy?", just remember that you can find link after link after link substantiating what I'm saying. I challenge you to find any supporting his wild DVR claims.

Peace and Goodnight,

OMC

[Tigress DEM]

26. I think you protest too much about his expertise.

Even the slight piece that you DID acknowledge means something to anyone who has had even fundamental marketing classes...

"It (TIVO) mainly is used right now by advertisers to see if their commercials are being watched or their commercials are being skipped."


Advertisers bread and butter is based on whether people watch their commercials or not. People in advertising are quite inclined to look for any "edge" they can gain on their compettition, some might even LIKE negative publicity because it gets their name out their in the midst of the controversey, but people in marketing are looking at all the numbers.. like a smart card player even thinks about the cards they throw down.

It makes sense then, EVEN IF the cost of their ad isn't driven by TIVO or DVR information at this time that if suddenly ABC sees holes in their information that indicates people are abandoning their network like they have the plague, it will cause them to think about it even if it doesn't seem to make a difference on the surface.


The "official" line is that bushco doesn't pay attention to war protests or millions of signatures becuase they can ignore them. But even these dunderheads will move out of the way when half a million people march down Constitution Ave.

[Bitwit1234]

24. ABC/Disney Boycott

This is what I have said...pick a sponsor and everybody boycott that sponsor. If we had a website that would give us the information and for when and how long. Then the sponsors could be notified that a boycott is on by all such and such organizations and will stay on till the drop advertising on ABC channels. I'm game even if I have to give up something I like. I have already programmed ABC and Disney out of my remote. I hope the cable suppliers could tell that.