Poll: WEBB TRAMPLING ALLEN BY 8 POINTS, 50-42, THE SENATE IS OURS

[Grebrook]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virginia_United_States_Senate_election%2C_2006

This is it people, we were looking for that sixth senate seat. Missouri, Montana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island. Ford is giving Corker hell out in Tennessee and all of the conservatives are turned off, might not show up to vote. Webb is now pulling ahead of Allen. He was being trounced 57%-26% at the beginning of the year. This is it. The senate is in striking distance. We're either breaking even, with Cheney as a tie-breaker, or we're taking it all!

[GetTheRightVote]

1. I hope you are right but let us not count our chickens to soon

:kick:

[Beaverhausen]

2. I hope you're right. Isn't Santorum coming up on Casey in PA?

I thought that seat was a definite, but I heard differently.

and don't forget the Diebold factor...

[Dob Bole]

4. Santorum doesn't have a chance

Santorum is currently the closest he's ever been to defeating Casey...six points behind:

http://www.electoral-vote.com:2006/

[BurgherHoldtheLies]

7. Latest Pennsylvania poll from USA Today/Gallup: Casey 56%, pRicky 38%

Latest poll from USA Today/Gallup:

The USA Today/Gallup poll shows Casey with a sizable advantage over Santorum among likely voters, 56% to 38%. Most other polls in the state this year have shown Casey with the lead, albeit of varying sizes. The USA Today/Gallup numbers are similar to the results of several polls conducted in the spring, and may indicate the momentum is swinging back toward Casey after recent polls suggested that Santorum was cutting into the large lead Casey had enjoyed.

Gallup sampled both likely voters and registered voters. Amongst registered voters, the race is 49-35 in Casey's advantage. They also sampled the governor's race and got some interesting info from that. Amongst registered voters it's Rendell 53-30. Amongst likely voters its Rendell 57-35. That's right. Rendell is hovering around the 60% line with likely voters.

What is particularly interesting to me is that Santorum is stuck at about 40% (which is consistent with every other poll we have seen to date) while Casey's numbers keep moving. Rick ran how many ads across the state and he is stuck right where he was in June. All this talk about Angry Rick Santorum being able to repair his image is crap. He's tried and has nothing to show for it.

http://www.keystonepolitics.com/Article4236.html

[saltpoint]

11. Just hunching here, but I have a feeling those numbers are darn close.

I think Casey buries Man-on-dog in a near-landslide.

And I'm thinking that will be a damn fine night on Nov. 7th when it happens.

[Beowulf]

13. I hope you are correct,

Casey is a very uninspiring candidate and no one slings mud quite like Ricky can.

[saltpoint]

15. Hi, Beowulf. A warm welcome to you to DU.

Yep -- Icky Ricky can sling it with the best of 'em, but I think even with the expected tightening of those Gallup numbers, Casey holds on for the win.

I'd prefer a pro-choice, deeper blue Democrat, but I'll ride the Casey horse to a Senate majority.

[wryter2000]

3. Wow, wow, wow!

Great news! :bounce:

[ps1074]

5. Zogby online poll

Zogby online polls are BS. There was a Mason Dixon poll the other day showing Allen up by 4.

[dogday]

6. I am so burned by the 2004 Election when

Zogby and the odds-makers were making their picks and I got really excited....

I want to be positive about this election, I truly do, I just don't know if I will be able to until I see it happen....

[samdogmom]

8. All I can say is knock on wood--and get rid of the early expectation curse

This is too reminiscent of 2000 and 2004. These posts make me very nervous.

[saltpoint]

9. Zogby keeps us on our toes, that's for sure. If these numbers are

not exactly right, my guess is they are registering the trend in Virginia accurately.

Mason-Dixon, Zogby -- not the same numbers in recent polls, but the same trend: Cement-Head is losing ground fast and Jim Webb is gaining ground fast. The long-term trajectory since summer is fairly good for Allen, although with below-safety levels on approval ratings. Webb's numbers steadily rising until the ethnic slur on Mr. Sidarth, then Webb's numbers spike, Allen's plummet.

Let's grab this seat in Virginia, and at least five more from the Rethugs, and take the Senate.

[VolcanoJen]

10. Tread carefully when it comes to Zogby Interactive...

... I'm tempted to take Kos' advice on this one. Let's just take deep breaths and work like hell!!

Zogby has new interactive polling numbers out. I don't believe them for a second. Zogby's interactive numbers were atrocious in 2004, and there's nothing to indicate that they will be any better this time around. I know Democratic campaigns with good numbers will cite the poll approvingly (especially with the Wall Street Journal's imprimatur). But whatever value they may have as propaganda, don't take them otherwise seriously.

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2006/9/11/133948/123

[borlis]

12. Not to burst your bubble, but I will believe it when I see it.

I have been way too excited way too many times in the past 5 years for nothing. I do hope it happens and I will be soooo happy if it does. I also don't trust the voting machines in this country either.

[mitchtv]

14. NJ is looking bad for us

I hope Menendez can turn it around

[Penndems]

16. Thank you, Grebrook, for this good news

It'll be nice to have a Senator we can be proud of here in Virginia. :)