Are The Good Poll Numbers Really Going To Help Us?

[phrenzy]

I'm afraid to get excited about them. Aren't these numbers based on national polls? There are no federal elections coming up, just regional ones. How do we know that if the Democrats are favored 55/45 over republicans that the extra 10 percent isn't in California or some other highly populated blue state? Does this really shift to our chances improving in congress?

God I hope so. But I think I've heard this before (about the public finally 'waking up' etc)

[AlinPA]

1. This is a good question/ I believe R's are more zealous about voting

than Democrats are.

[Buzz Clik]

2. no.

[AndyTiedye]

3. Being Ahead in the Polls Didn't Help Us In 2000, 2002, or 2004

[Innocent Smith]

4. Most of the time it is local issues that drive the races

Also, beecause of the way the districts are laid out, it will be difficult to take a majority in the house, but it is definitly doable. There aren't that many competitive seats across the country so the Repubs would need to lose the vast majority of them. That is were a national tide comes into play sweeping out large numbers of one party.

[longship]

5. Yes, but it's for a couple of other reasons.

1. The polls are missing some important trends. The Pew research released yesterday delved a little deeper into what's happening, but most of the campaign polls are going to totally miss it. This is something flying under the radar; something which the mere asking who are you going to vote for isn't going to measure. The main issue is that this country has turned against this administration to the point that there's very little ChimpCo can do to recover. The down slide began last summer and ChimpCo has done absolutely nothing to turn it back since then. Indeed, everything they've done has exacerbated the problem. In November there will be races which all the pollsters will be calling safe which will not be safe. There's no good news at all for them.

2. There's going to be so many races in play that it will be hopeless for ChimpCo to try to "steal" them. The House is already hopelessly out of reach for them and it's not going to get any better in the short month and a half. They may gain on a couple of races here and there, but then there will be another half-dozen which will flip into the competitive column. It's death by a thousand cuts and the only thing they have is a couple of band-aids.

There are some people here who think that ChimpCo can steal the whole thing, but those folks are not thinking rationally. If what we see happening really *is* happening, there's no way that ChimpCo can even get access to the electoral machinery in 60, 70, or maybe even 80 or more districts. Many, many of them will have commissioners or Secys of State who are Democrats. If they do try to game the system this time, it will be the most widespread electoral fraud in a putatively free country in the world's history.

Somewhere (or in many places) somebody will blow the whistle. There are many, many hungry district attorneys who would jump at the chance to impanel a grand jury on such a high profile case. Once a grand jury smells widespread electoral fraud, the chips will fall for ChimpCo.

No, ChimpCo knows that they can't steal this. They'll have to settle for their political tricks and electoral garbage executed by the local parties.