Why didn't oil prices plummet around the 2004 election?

[Ignacio Upton]

Granted oil prices weren't as high back then, but they were already high enough that consumers were getting pissed off about them. If you look at the retail price chart from GasBuddy.com, they show the price of gas in the two months leading up to the Presidential election. Gas actually went UP during the fall, and went DOWN after Election Day.

http://66.70.86.46/test.gaschart?Country=Canada&Crude=f&Period=36&Areas=Canada%20Average,USA%20Average,&Unit=US%20$/G

If the market is being manipulated right now (I'm skeptical, but then again, after viewing that map of states with close Senate races, I'm open to the idea, but I need more proof) then why didn't we see this same bullshit in 2004?

[ForFuxakes]

1. Ummmmm....

1. Repugs were not in any real danger of losing the congress.
2. Bushco was not in any real danger of being impeached.
3. Most (the sheeple) were not too upset by Iraq yet.

just a few that i can think of....would love to see some more thoughts.

[indepat]

9. US consumers had been subsidizing European consumers 24 cents

per gallon according to a recent article posted on the DU board. Sorry, don't have the URL, but that spread alone would give big oil that much leeway and they just might let European consumers subsidize the US for 24 cents or so per gallon until Repugs have safely tucked away control of both houses of Congress.

[sandnsea]

2. Kerry and the Gas Tax

Remember that goofy 1920's gas tax commercial? The message was - gas prices are high as it is, and this guy wants to make them even higher - yikes!!

And he won't drill for more oil and he's a crazy environmentalist who won't let us build more refineries either.

High prices was what the doctor ordered in 2004.

[madokie]

3. much more at stake today, we have a prez who has been breaking

laws and wants to stay out of jail. if the re:puke:s loose all bets are off for bush* remaining long as the preznet. bush* preznit=good for oil companys, simple

[Skarbrowe]

4. Democratic leaning South Florida is still at $2.70plus a gallon.

It's better than $3.15 a gallon, but it hasn't done a free fall here yet. There was a big article on the front page of the Sun Sentinel the other day explaining why we weren't getting that much relief. I haven't read it yet. heh

[jsamuel]

5. Iraq, futures market kept it high

[Warpy]

6. They weren't in as much trouble in 2004

Polls across the country averaging large urban areas with more rural areas in all the states said the election would be close enough to steal, which they did.

This time, they're not so sure. People are angry about Katrina, about the rotten war, about the continued presence of bin Laden, about falling housing prices, about falling wages and disappearing jobs, and about coming slowly to the realization that they've been lied to for six solid years.

That's why gas prices are going down NOW.

[CJCRANE]

7. The fix was in (Ohio)

[shugh514]

8. The fix was in on the presidential election

They may not have control of the outcome of all congressional elections. It's more unpredictable and they need all the help they can get to keep the races close.
:tinfoilhat:

[leveymg]

10. '04 - US retail gas prices kept well below rise in world oil prices

After the elections, they came back up to a parity level.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=364x657798

27/08/04 BUSH'S GAS PUMP GAMBIT: Are Major U.S. Oil Refiners and Distributors Holding Back Price Increases Until After the Elections? Mark G. Levey

The Bush Administration is putting a happy face on the near-doubling of the world price of crude oil to $50 a barrel during the last 18 months, a price explosion brought on by the Iraq War and other bungled adventures in petroleum producing countries. Here's the spin: it's an economic stimulus package.
On Saturday, Aug. 21, The New York Times carried an interesting article by business writer, Eduardo Porter, “An Oil Shock That Could Be an Economic Stimulus in Disguise”. Porter suggests the oil price spike means the Federal Reserve is unlikely to substantially raise interest rates, which will extend the U.S. borrowing binge in spite of historically high costs of energy imports and the growing trade imbalance.

Unless you're Vladimir Putin, a Saudi sheikh, or a Halliburton executive, the economic logic in this may seem more than a little perverse.

It all comes down to a false perception that cheap energy is going to continue forever for America. The Bush Administration has some powerful friends interested in maintaining this charade. In April, the White House denied Bob Woodward's report that Saudi Ambassador Prince Bandar, a long-time Bush family friend, pledged that “over the summer, or as we get closer to the election, they could increase production several million barrels a day and the price would drop significantly.”

While there are no reliable measures of actual Saudi crude production, oil traders are skeptical the Saudis can quickly bring large amounts of new oil to market. The Russians also did their part to pull the rug out from under the Bandar-Bush deal. As a result of this, and the failure of the Administration's strategy to effectively control exports from Iraq and Venezuela, crude prices escalated steeply over the summer, nearing the psychologically important $50 a barrel level this past week.

If gas prices were keeping pace with crude oil prices, Americans would be paying nearly $3.00 a gallon for unleaded regular. Nonetheless, domestic pump prices dropped to an average of $1.87 last week from their May highs of $2.06. That's nearly a forty percent discount. What appears to have happened is that domestic prices of motor fuels somehow decreased dramatically during the “peak summer driving months”. That doesn't normally happen – not in a market that is operating according to market forces. Gas prices usually go up and inventories go down during the summer. By July, domestic refineries are usually switching over to fuel oil production. But, not this year. Meanwhile, fuel oil is up twenty percent since May, a matter of concern for anyone who has to write a check to heat their home this winter. Diesel has risen thirteen percent. Why is this occurring now?

The strange failure of gas prices to rise this summer has a lot to do with growing stocks of high-priced imported petroleum that have filled U.S. storage reservoirs. This summer, supplies on hand averaged more than 300 million barrels, an increase of some 20 million over the year before. http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/oog/ftparea/wogirs/xls/'1-Crude Oil Stocks'!A1>


SNIP

[zbdent]

11. Keep pointing out to people - either the prices were artificially too high

then, or they are artificially too low now ...

And don't forget, the Alaskan BP pipeline needs to be repaired ... I'm sure they'd get back to it right after the first Tuesday after the first Monday in November ...