It is not possible that Bush's polling numbers are going UP. No way.

[Atman]

What good thing has happened lately? In fact, he's only gotten into more shit lately. More bad headlines. Things going worse in Iraq. What possible justification could there be for this president to now be up to 44 in the Gallup?

Oh yeah...Gallup is GOP. Mix in a shot of Diebold and a dash of Margin-of-error, and you have the recipe for a Republican Victory Cocktail in 2006. I hope no one has bet the farm on a Dem take-over of anything. They'll give us enough democratic House victories to be able to do some stories on the GOP's troubles, and set up Nancy Pelosi and the Democrats for two years worth of demonizing, but anytone who think Diebold...er, BushCo is going to let us gain control of the Senate is far more optimistic than I. Too much is at stake. And just as many of us predicted falling gas prices leading up to the election, we've also been warning of
"Poll Creep," little incremental jumps in Bush's numbers leading up to November, bringing him and the party to within the MOE -- safe Diebold range. And looky at what's happening. Gallup now has him rising to 44% today. For what, pray tell? Americans are proud of his new torture allegations? WTF?

Don't plan your victory party without having a back-up plan for a march on Washington. Seriesly.

[Captain Hilts]

1. Gallup isn't GOP. Increases have been within the margin of error.

Gallup publishes all their data, so you can see how they balance their data, etc.

No, they're not GOP, they're just a bit sloppy.

[Atman]

5. They skew 5% GOP. Is it in the methodology.

They claim that 5% more Republicans vote, so they poll more republicans. This is also part of their methodology. I don't believe they haven't been "got to" too. Besides, find me any other polls. Only Rassmussen and Gallup seem to get published anymore, with a smattering of Zogby. I simply don't trust them any more than BushCo.

[Captain Hilts]

10. Gallup is sloppy,...

but it's true Republicans have much higher turnout. So, there's a logic to what Gallup is doing. In the 2000 election their partisan breakdown would sway over 5% from day to day. So, when they polled 7% more Republicans Bush would be up by 7%. The next day it would be majority Democrats and Gore would lead by that margin. As a result, overnight they were reporting 15% swings in the results. Sloppy.

Despite all the Rock the Vote and UTube and Eminem publicity last election, only 17% of those under 30 voted. 17%.

Democratic constituencies with low turnout:
The poor
Minorities
People under 30
Women under 30.

So, while this might not be a great way to balance data, there is a logic to what they do and they are consistent.

[lonestarnot]

22. Gallup should ....off into the distance.

[raccoon]

2. You think the Gallup polls would LIE?

I am shocked--shocked. :sarcasm:

[rodeodance]

3. there is a gradual upward 'uptick" over last few months.

[Atman]

6. Of course! Things have gotten so much better for Bush!

So what is causing this "uptick." Just exactly what has he done to make people change their minds? I smell BULLSHIT ten feet deep here.

[halobeam]

8. we are swimming in the bullshit, forget just smelling it.

If voting is rigged, no other issue need be addressed, it becomes moot. We knew this sooooooo long ago. IMO, there should only be one thread. Yes, all the issues ARE in need of urgent attention, but failure to have the power to do anything about it comes first.

[Captain Hilts]

11. It's still pretty small. When you're glad to hit 40% you're reaching. nt

[Toots]

15. I think some Americans get aroused when they think of torturing people

:shrug:

[SammyWinstonJack]

17. Certainly ** does. nt

[bullimiami]

4. i pretty much agree with your assessment. its going to be an ugly NOV.

[npincus]

7. if true, does not bode well for Nov 2006

[bandb 88]

9. POLLS

NNNNNNNNNNOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

[LoZoccolo]

12. You know all this talk of rigged polls and stolen elections...

...doesn't do anything to stop black box voting (which is important, but talk does nothing), and pretty much serves as an excuse for us not to take responsibility for winning elections. We see plently of armchair speculation passed off as fact here, and little activism. I post threads asking people what they are doing for the 2006 elections so that people can see how much there is to be done and there are a few very active people around, but the threads pretty much sink.

I say again and don't care who's offended: DUers are seldom doers.

[Atman]

19. All generalizations are false.

DUers are seldom DUers.

Lot of DUers are, though. I've been a poll worker for a few years now, and was an Assistant Registrar of Voters in the last election. More recently, I volunteered for the Ned Lamont campaign (so far so good). I understand what you're saying, but I think it is a considerable over-statement. Sure, lots of people here are nothing more than keyboard commandos, but the action of spreading information is still an action that fills a void, a niche.

[Donald Ian Rankin]

13. You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means.

NT

[johnnie]

14. Gas prices

It's all the way down to $2.20 per gallon here, what a deal what a deal. :eyes:

A lot of people don't give a shit about things that they don't have to look at.

[KoKo]

16. Haven't you noticed the Media Lockdown? No mention of AbuGhraib

torturing has come up...it's all about "Extreme Terrorists" who are in Gitmo.

Both MSNBC and CNN are in lock down with the heavy Bush Filter in place. CNN is the Israeli Channel focusing more on the ME and MSNBC is the kidnapped Baby and Girl in the Bunker 24/7.

Only Keith Olberman and Jack Cafferty are allowed to be the Tokens who can speak out. And one's sports and the other is entertainment and that's how they get away with what they say.

Even C-Span has been dreadful...cutting of Dem Callers allowing Raving Crazy
Repugs to spew lies. Their line up is filled with the Think Tanks and articles from the Washington Times read on WJ.

They are flexing their muscles showing us how they will steal another election. It's all laid out. We've been taken over and they are stronger than ever. The Dem establishment should have brought a lawsuit against ABC for ELECTION TAMPERING. What happened to all those petitions we signed? They went nowhere. Clinton has done nothing so far. We look spineless once again, as we are laughed at for our lack of power. :banghead:

[FoxOnTheRun]

18. You can't rig an election while Bush has 20% approval

The bounce comes with seven weeks before elections to deicide control of Congress amid falling gas prices and a renewed campaign by Bush to boost support for the Iraq war and to portray Republicans as more competent than Democrats on security, the newspaper said.

Bush's approval rating edged up largely on the strength of Republicans coming back to the fold with 86 percent saying they support him now, compared to 70 percent in May, USA Today said.

For the first time since December 2005, a majority of people polled did not say the war in Iraq was a mistake. The respondents were evenly split at 49 percent to 49 percent, the report said.

However, the poll finds that the Iraq war continues to be a problem for Bush. Sixty percent said he does not have a clear plan for handling Iraq and 75 percent said Iraq is in a civil war, USA Today said.

The telephone poll of 1,003 people was conducted September 15-17, and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

[Horse with no Name]

20. Because he HAS been on TV EVERY FRIGGING DAY

and gas prices are down.
Morans equate that with he is working HARD and in essence, that is why gas prices are down.
Not to mention all the airtime that the networks are giving Republicans for their campaigning--free of charge, disguised as news.
November is going to be difficult.

[Flying Dream Blues]

21. More of Karl Rove's "bullshit" nt

[Efilroft Sul]

23. Let's say that Bush's numbers have gone up.

They should have stayed down.

Remember that 29% Bush rating? The Democrats let Bush off the ropes, because I don't recall any concerted efforts by the Democratic Party to drive his rating lower. For crying out loud, Bush's rating was near Nixonian levels and it was like the Democrats were afraid of saying anything about the guy. Where is the Democrats' killer instinct, especially when Bush is destroying and mocking American ideals?!

With the Democrats going into yet another coma, it was eventual that Bush's rating would come out of the basement (barring another Katrina-like debacle). We can bitch and moan all we want about a complicit corporate media and polling firms aiding and abetting the Bush administration, but the result is that the Democratic Party speaking as the opposition let us down.

For what it's worth, I think falling gas prices and the 9/11 Victory Tour have helped Bush's rating, but I don't believe it's around 44%. The USA Today/Gallup Poll, I suspect, is an outlier. However, I think Bush's actual rating is somewhere around 36–38%.

[Sugarcoated]

24. Another angle on this

The Muslim world is in an uproar about the Pope's stupid comments a week ago - I don't know about you all, but it's scares me when I see thousands of people yelling and screaming like insane maniacs and throwing American flags into bonfires. And I'm a liberal Democrat. I would never vote for a Republican out of fear, but I'll tell ya, I was shocked beyond belief by the number of well educated moderate people I know who said they were voting for Bush in 2004 for varying reasons based on fear. Fear is their magic bullet, and hopefully enough people will be awake and aware this Nov and not base their vote on this one issue.

[Sugarcoated]

26. I want to add

any thinking person keeping up with politics can see Bush/Republican's are making us LESS safe with their selfish, greedy and arrogant actions.

[Atman]

27. Logically then, wouldn't electing democrats help bring peace?

Republicans are hornest-nest whackers. They deliberately stir 'em up and then refuse to talk to them. They are school yard bullies. Approaching the 2004 election I recall more than one pundit-blogger-whatever suggesting that the world would forgive America after Bush's first election, because largely everyone agrees that one way or another, Gore got robbed. It wan an anamoly. But the American people voted him in AGAIN, and kept voting in more war-mongering, fear-loving, hate-spewing republicans to further enable Bush's crusades. In the eyes of much of the world, the American people are sitting back scratching their asses while our president destroys the world. That is not hyperbole. Our image abroad, everyway, is so bad it is astonishing, and America is viewed to have fomented and created much of the violence around the globe.

Doesn't it stand to reason, in the eyes of the world in which all of this violence is taking place, that the American people were finally awakening to throwing the bums out and possibly even prosecuting them for their crimes? Wouldn't this send a message to the world that America is finally coming around to sanity again? And wouldn't we then be able to start actually talking to world leaders again, instead of sending John Bolton to the UN to tell everyone to fuck off, or Condi to do, uh...whatever Condi does.

This whole situation is total madness, and I cannot see how it is logical for voters to think that staying the course is going to take us anywhere other than...uh, well...I just happen to have an old cartoon here... ;)

[Sugarcoated]

28. I was talking to my brother who was once just a normal

voter, leaned right on some issues, left on others, registered Indy. We were talking about the Nov elections, state of the world, etc., and he actually said to me, 'if the Democrats win in '08 the terrorists win'.

So much I could've said but my jaw was on the floor.
:cry:

The only sense I can make of seemingly intelligent people voting against their own interests is the propaganda of fear.

[spanone]

25. CNN reported 'highest poll #'s of the year this am.

Hell, the bastard has been on tv night and day.