Bush "bounce" in gallup poll is just noise

[louis c]

Gallup/USA Today poll that reports Bush's job approval at 44% was conducted just days after 9/11.

During that period Bush delivered many emotionally charged, politically motivated speeches and appearances. I believe that this created a "false bounce" or "statistical noise".

Link:
http://www.galluppoll.com/content/?ci=24601

The evidence for my theory is actually a repuke polling venue, Rasmussen. His 3-day rolling average will show the bounce during that period, and then the fall back to the 40% and dropping that Rasmussen has Bush at today.

Link:
http://rasmussenreports.com/Bush_Job_Approval.htm

[Zynx]

1. Gallup doesn't try to set their samples static so sometimes they overpoll

one way or the other big time. They probably heavily overpolled Republicans.

[Stevepol]

11. Steven Freeman also covers this flaw, especially with Gallup.

They often over-poll Repubs because they don't take several things into account.

Freeman's book, "Was the 04 Election Stolen?"

(Short answer: "Yes")

[bryant69]

2. I think you are probably right

I don't think that things have really turned around for Republicans - they are just trying very ahrd to create the illusion that they have.

Nothing succeeds like success - but, on the other hand, nothing fails like failure.

Bryant
Check it out --> http://politicalcomment.blogspot.com

[louis c]

12. My point, exactly

Thanks

[AndyA]

3. I agree with your assessment.

I think Gallup USA Today is just a bit late in compiling its data and releasing it. Everyone expected Bush to get a slight bounce from 9/11, God knows he worked it to death.

He will settle back down again in Gallup/USA Today, because he's always doing or saying something offensive and/or stupid. For instance, today at the UN - an opportunity ripe for Bush to do something dumb.

[WI_DEM]

4. A few days ago on Ras Bush was at 47% and now he is at 40%

and Ras usually has Bush a few points ahead of other pollsters. It's only the 9/11 hoopla. But believe me just before the election the WH will orchestrate something which will involve national security to try and win a few points. They are totally without scruples.

[BOSSHOG]

5. GOP running the engine hard to break even

rove has to throw red meat (kill muslims) to the base to perk the numbers up to (40%)! Sad, pathetic, disgusting. "Conservatives" - so proud of their ignorance; attempting to be unaware of their cowardice.

[Poiuyt]

6. Could Bush numbers be going up because of the lower gas prices?

I don't know. It does seem like an unusually large jump

[AX10]

7. 9/11. Also gas prices are falling.

I expect Bush's true poll ceiling to be 40%.

[lonestarnot]

8. noise, chatter and lies.

[louis c]

14. kick in the evening

[bluestateguy]

9. I think the real number is 40%

He did get a point or two out of 9/11, but that's it. And Bush bounces never last.

[Zynx]

13. I think 40% is right on the money right now.

SurveyUSA just did their monthly huge nationwide polling and came up with 39%.

[mvd]

15. SurveyUSA's become a respected poll - hasn't it?

I've never trusted Gallup. Knowing them, they'll manipulate it to the other Bush approval ratings right before the election after trying to give Repukes morale boosts. It's what they do during every Presidential election.

[Virginia Dare]

10. I predict...

that once he's finally left office, and all of his manipulative cronies are out of the picture, there will be a big pox mark on his "presidency". I believe he will end up being the most hated President in history, bar none.

[ComerPerro]

16. yeah, two or three solid days of propaganda will do that