Democratic-held Senate seats that could become competitive?

[Ignacio Upton]

We all know that NJ, MD, MN, WA, are competitive as of now. However, I'm concerned that the number could DOUBLE, considering that gas prices are feeding more Kool Aid for the Republicans.

Are there any DUers in Florida, Michigan, West Virginia, Nebraksa, or Vermont that can tell me how things are going on the ground in their states? For example, Katherine Harris is now only losing to Bill Nelson by 15% in a new Survey USA poll. It could just be a post-primary bounce, but considering how her campaign has been imploding throughout the year, I'm wondering why she's polling as much support as she is. Also, another new poll out from American Research Group shows Sanders only leading by 15% over Tarrant in Vermont. Michigan could become competitive because of Granholms unpopularity, and Stabenow is only winning by rouhgly 10%, still small enough that Bouchard could make it a competitive race.
Now, I'm not as concerned about Ben Nelson and Robert Byrd, but considering that their opponents are well-financed and the conservative bent of their states, I have decided to list Nebraska and West Virginia as potentially competitive.

[DemPopulist]

1. Uh

WA and MN aren't really competitive; MD is an open question. NJ is the only one where we're really down, though by a small margin.

[jefferson_dem]

2. MN and WA are just about in the "safe" column.

NJ and MD are the biggest challenges right now.

Follow the trends with the latest polls at the http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2006/senate/ (yes, i know it's a repuke-leaning site but good for poll updates).

[Ignacio Upton]

6. Cantwell is now only leading by 6%

That story about her neutralized McGavick's loss of support:
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2006/9/22/20837/7368

[Lexingtonian]

3. don't worry about that

and don't put so much stock in this gas prices linkage canard.

I can't remember a single Republican getting newly elected as Senator in Blue States since 1998. And Ken Salazar broke the opposite streak in 2004.

[FogerRox]

4. Maryland? Not happnin, NJ .......Not in my lifetime

Menendez is up by 7%... look here:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=364&topic_id=2194158&mesg_id=2194158

What you have described is a very conservative view of the senate. IMHO there are no DEM senate or HOuse seats in play. Plus the polls you cite are crap. Rassmusen has the senate 49D & 51R. The generic DEM is up 15%, 50 to 35. And Rass has a slight "R" edge even in his state polls.

[Ignacio Upton]

7. I can't find a poll showing Menendez up by 7%

n/t.

[FogerRox]

9. REPEATING.......Menendez up by 7% go here

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=364&topic_id=2194158&mesg_id=2194158


DId you not see the link in post #4 ?

[Name removed]

5. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[mb7588a]

8. Forget it.

Only place we are on the defensive is in NJ. The rest are safe.

[FogerRox]

11. Thast right mb7588a and I have left a link that tears the NJ

Polls a new piehole, they are wrong. TO believe that Kean is up 3pts, you have to believe that Kean is takin 64% of the Indie vote.

In a Blue state. Trending nationally is to DEMS. Quiniapac said Bush was up 8% in 2004, over Kerry. Kerry won by 8%. that is a 16 pt error.

Many Polls said Forrester is tied or closing on Corzine, in the 2005 NJ Gov race. Corzine won by 9%. Thats a 10-12% error.

What NJ poll in the last 5 years actually matched election results?

There are 2 mill Indie voters in NJ.

1.3 million DEMS

850,000 Repubs.

THe probability that Kean is ahead is off the chart.

[Hippo_Tron]

10. I'd be most concerned about Stabbenow in Michigan

But honestly I doubt it will be any trouble. Sanders is one of the safest bets in the country. I think that the GOP has put up such lightweight candidates in the rest of these races that we have nothing to worry about. BTW, races always tighten up significantly as election day draws nearer.

[FogerRox]

12. right now we have 5 senate seats in the bag