Bin Laden may feel lure to disprove his "death"

[tocqueville]

By Mark Trevelyan, Security Correspondent
Sun Sep 24, 9:58 AM ET

LONDON (Reuters) - A leaked intelligence report of Osama bin Laden's death has met scepticism from Western and Muslim governments but may increase a clamor from his followers to show himself on video for the first time in nearly two years.

One theory surrounding the mysterious French leak is that it was designed precisely to flush the al Qaeda leader into the open, prompting him to release a new tape that might give a clue to his whereabouts and state of health.

"Western intelligence, the Americans, the Saudis want bin Laden to appear," said Diaa Rashwan, an expert on Islamist groups at the al-Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies in Cairo.

"Perhaps they're trying to agitate him to appear by video to try to fix some information about his real (location)."

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20060924/ts_nm/security_binladen_leak_dc_1

[rzemanfl]

1. Gee! Yah think? n/t

[elehhhhna]

2. Right. Then why have Saudis said he's SICK but not DEAD?

And nobody's asking how they know he has typhoid, but have no idea where he IS?

[H2O Man]

4. Those are two

possibly related, but still distinct reports. First, let's look at the "he's dead" bit. Yesterday I wrote that it was one of two things: either it is someone trying to get Usama bin Laden to react, or it is an attempt to get those looking for him to react. A few hours after my DU post about that, CNN had a retired Agency analyst on, who said the same thing. He noted that because the report was based upon one source, and that person remains unidentified, it is only possible to speculate which of the two things is the goal.

The reports of his being ill sound, much like the report of Armitage's "stone age" remarks, aimed primarily towards the Islamic extremists.

We do know, without any need to speculate, that the administration really would like to score Usama before the elections. Are they hoping to flush him out? Or are other forces watching the hunters? It is complex, as there are indeed the hunters, and those hunting the hunters.

[malaise]

6. Michael Ledeen was on one of the PNAC

panels on CSpan. These were recorded and he said that he had heard that Osama was dead sometime back.

[H2O Man]

7. There have been

about 15 separate "Usama's dead" rumors & reports since 2004. The newest one is from a Saudi source, who is unidentified. If it turns out that that source is connected to the Ledeenites, it would not surprise me.

[malaise]

11. Hardly LOL n/t

[hlthe2b]

8. Question never even asked...

Bin Laden supposedly had access to top medical care-- even to the point of receiving dialysis (if one believes that old tome). Now is there any competent medical professional who would not have recommended typhoid among the many vaccines one should receive in that part of the world--ESPECIALLY if he had underlying renal dysfunction? For God's sakes, there has been both a highly effective injectable and an oral vaccine for years...

If Bin Laden was so damned important, surely he would have been recommended to receive even if none of his followers. He was, after all, very wealthy, as well...

SO, maybe he was vaccinated.. No vaccine is 100%, right? Maybe he received an oral vaccine that hadn't been propery maintained under "cold-chain" and was thus partially inactive? Or maybe he just had a whopping exposure to a highly virulent strain of the bacterium..


Whatever.... Makes no more sense than having a six foot plus man dragging around a dialysis machine in the Pakistani mountains...

[gully]

3. Right, just after we vote on the "compromise" legislation featuring

treatment of "terrorists" ie "prisoners."

[Javaman]

5. OBL has made a statement...

"the report of my death has been greatly exaggerated."

[hlthe2b]

9. you left out the rest...

"and Bush* is El Diablo!" :evilgrin:

[angstlessk]

10. OR have him do a video just in time for the November elections?

The Saudi's have lowered the price of oil for bush...why not stir up bin laden?