AMAZING global terrorism trend numbers the White House has hidden

[ProgressiveEconomist]

How plausible is the argument that the invasion of Iraq and subsequent mishaps there have caused terrorism to "metastaticize"? Numerical data on trends in measures of terrorism might help in deciding whether terrorism has accelerated since "Mission Accomplished".

IMO, for that very reason, Dubya's Dept of State has halted longstanding publication of annual measures of terrorism and substituted reports that have very few numbers in them (See the second URL below for details).

But, using obscure Congressional reports and other sources, it still is possible to bring the series up to date. Here it is:

TRENDS IN OFFICIAL US GOVERNMENT NUMERIC MEASURES OF WORLD TERRORISM

Year . . . Killed . . Wounded . . . . Acts

2005 . . 14,602 .. .. 25,398 .. . 11,111
2004 . . . 1,907 . . .. . 7,393 . . . 3,168
2003 . . . . 625 . . . . . 3,646 . . . . 208
2002 . . . . 725 . . . . . 2,013 . . . . 199
2001 .. . 3,547 . . . . . 1,080 . . . . 346
2000 . . . . 405 . . . . . . 791 . . . . 423
1999 . . . . 233 . . . . . . 706 . . . . 392
1998 . . . . 741 .. . . . 5,952 . . . . 273
1997 . . . . 221 . . . .. . 693 . . . . 304
1996 . . . . 311 .. . . . 2,652 . . . . 296

SOURCES: 1996-2002: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Patterns_of_Global_Terrorism
2003-2005: http://fpc.state.gov/documents/organization/69479.pdf , page CRS-7

This table is very dramatic. IMO, what it shows is that

(1) 9-11 was a "blip" in historic deaths due to terrorist acts. While 3,547 were killed that year, overwhelmingly at the WTC, the number of deaths fell dramatically the following year, and continued to fall into 2003, when on May 1 Dubya declared "Mission Accomplished" in a photo-op aboard the USS Abraham Lincoln.

(2) Deaths from terrorist acts more than tripled from 2003 to 2004, and then increased more than sevenfold on top of that tripling.

Thus there seems to have been a dramatic acceleration in world deaths from terrorist acts since 2003.

(A) Does anyone have an explanation other than the US invasion of Iraq, and the deteriorating military situation there since 2003?

(B) Does anyone have an explanation for the obscurity and apparent deliberate obfuscation of these numbers other than a White House attempt to hide the terrorism consequences of the Iraq fiasco?

[OnyxCollie]

1. Nope, that pretty much says it all. nt

[ProgressiveEconomist]

7. Kick

[ProgressiveEconomist]

8. kick

[BelgianMadCow]

2. Amazing stats - R'd

but is this somehow directly linked to the NIE?

[ProgressiveEconomist]

4. You are right--I've changed the title of the thread to eliminate

any confusion of the National Intelligence Estimate with this alternative measure.. Like this year's NIE on terrorism, the "Patterns of Global Terrorism" / "Country Reports on Terrorism" series traditionally has been released in April. In all likelihood, there must be at least some informal coordination between the sources of the two reports, to avoid making each other look silly with discordant concurrent results. But I have no direct evidence of that.

The New York Times story that prompted this week's Bush press conference explains how the National Intelligence Estimate reached the explicit conclusion that the Iraq invasion had worsended global terrorism. See http://www.nytimes.com/2006/09/24/world/middleeast/24terror.html?_r=1&ei=5094&en=003f596f66422cfd&hp=&ex=1159070400&oref=slogin&partner=homepage&pagewanted=print :

But there are no numeric estimates in that story, or in any other MSM news story I've seen on this issue. The alternative source I've found surely is relevant enough to get MSM attention, don't you think?

[BelgianMadCow]

5. Owww yess I have no problem with your source, and the figures NEED exposin

but it is a good thing you changed the thread title - otherwise it could be confusing. Similar figures have floated around on DU before, and we all know that terrorism got worse not better.

So you could include in your title "Figures supporting the NIE" or something like that. Cause they do, obviously.

Good work!

:thumbsup:

[ProgressiveEconomist]

6. Thanks for the suggestion, but I'm going to play it safe in the OP

I'm too tired now, but later I may add a "reply" to myself on the dfferences between the NIE and the PGT/CRT.

There was actually quite a scandal over apparent attempts by State to manipulate the series. See http://www.vredessite.nl/andernieuws/2004/week27/06-23_terror_toll.html and http://www.foreignaffairs.org/20040901facomment83502/alan-b-krueger-david-d-laitin/misunderestimating-terrorism.html .

I was trying to refresh my memory about that scandal when I stumbled on the damning statistics in my table.

[ProgressiveEconomist]

11. Clearing up my initial confusion of NIE with PGT (Patterns of Blobal

Terrorism annual report):

Apparently, a National Intelligence Estimate can be prepared about any national security issue. See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Intelligence_Estimate , or google http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&lr=&ie=ISO-8859-1&q=%22national+intelligence+estimate%22+site%3Agwu.edu .

From 1983 to 2003, The State Department published a numerical and analytical assessment of the extent of terrorism called "Patterns of Global Terrorism" (PGT). This report came out every April, like clockwork. Two economists found that Colin Powell's State Department had clumsily fudged the April 2004 report (see links at http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=364&topic_id=2231628&mesg_id=2231699 ). The report had to be re-released in June 2004, and that was the last one of the series.

The Wikipedia article on PGT (at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Patterns_of_Global_Terrorism ) is the best wiki I've ever seen on any topic. See also my tentative filling-in of the gaps in the PGT series at http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=364&topic_id=2230807&mesg_id=2233164

Another great resource on the death of the PGT, the NIE, and other security issues is a blog run by Larry Johnson, a consultant who has testifed before Congress many times on terrorism issues. For a recent post about the NIE on his blog, go to http://noquarter.typepad.com/my_weblog/2006/09/the_facts_behin.html . You need only supply a name and an (unverified) email address to post a question immediately.

[radwriter0555]

3. LOL Terrorist acts in IRAQ? no.... that's not terrorism. That's people

defending themselves from marauding genocidal invaders and murderers.

Since when is self defense considered terrorism?

[ProgressiveEconomist]

9. Truncating this 1983-2003 series drew scathing rebukes from the REPUB..

LICAN chair (Royce, R-CA) of the oversight subcommittee, who evidently did not realize the numerical measures were being dropped until he recived the 2005 report. Royce well may be the Congress member who requested the report from the very experienced Raphael Perl at the Congressional Research Service (google http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&ie=ISO-8859-1&q=%22raphael+perl%22+crs+terrorism&btnG=Google+Search ).

From http://commdocs.house.gov/committees/intlrel/hfa21207.000/hfa21207_0.HTM :

"REVIEWING THE STATE DEPARTMENT'S ANNUAL REPORT ON TERRORISM

HEARING BEFORE THE SUBCOMMITTEE ON INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM AND NONPROLIFERATION

OF THE COMMITTEE ON INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS

HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES ONE HUNDRED NINTH CONGRESS FIRST SESSION

MAY 12, 2005

Serial No. 109…50

Mr. ROYCE. The State Department's last two editions of its yearly report on international terrorism have been mired in some controversy. The 2003 edition had to be reissued after significant errors were detected, errors that underreported the number of terrorist attacks for 2003. This year the State Department issued its 2004 report, minus its traditional annex statistically reporting on the number of terrorist attacks worldwide. This change leaves us with two documents, Country Reports on Terrorism, produced by the State Department, and A Chronology of Significant International Terrorism, produced by the National Counterterrorism Center (NCTC), where we used to have one: Patterns of Global Terrorism.

Patterns had been around since 1983. It was widely used throughout the world because it was authoritative and it was comprehensive. In truncating this document, a pretty good brand name was jettisoned. Post 9/11, when we are finding that much of what we have been doing for years in the terrorism field has been ineffective, it is an odd time to play with success. The new Country Reports on Terrorism is a bit like a one-sided baseball card. We have the terrorist picture on the front and we see what team he is on. What is missing are the statistics on the back. In this case, it is the grisly statistics of attacks committed and deaths, injuries and damage inflicted. Looking to next year, I would ask the Administration to revisit its decision to split this report in two. One report makes sense. ... I do not understand why the Committee was not consulted as the decision to alter Patterns was made.

To some, this may be just a report, but it is a congressionally-mandated report dealing with the central security challenge facing our Nation. ... This is not to This report is, or at least was, a useful tool, but again, it is not the ultimate scorecard in the battle against terrorism. ... My hope for this hearing is that we examine the issues and look ahead. A commitment from the Administration to work with Congress on producing the best possible report on international terrorism would be a good start."

[liberal N proud]

10. And they still have the gaul to say they are keeping us safer?

[ck4829]

12. Kick