Families fleeing Florida (high housing costs blamed)

[Herman Munster]

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB115931354362274915.html?mod=hps_us_editors_picks

In Florida, school principals, real-estate developers and economic-development officials are scrambling to solve a troubling mystery: Where did the kids go?

Across a state long plagued by shortages of teachers and classrooms, school-enrollment figures show declines or no growth this fall. The Palm Beach County public-school system in south Florida saw its first enrollment drop since 1971 -- a 1.9% decline to 170,582 students. Broward County, surrounding Fort Lauderdale, lost 3.1% of its students. Growth in Orlando and Tampa has slowed to roughly half... Overall, the number of students in Florida public schools now is expected to grow by just 30,000 students to 2.67 million, well below recent annual increases of about 65,000.

The reason: School officials say that even though it has cooled in recent weeks, Florida's overheated housing market -- with the median existing-home price up 90% since 2001 to $248,400 in August -- is pricing young families out of the state.

Ranking fourth in population among states, Florida remains one of the fastest-growing places in the country, adding an average of 1,000 new residents a day to its total of 18.3 million. But the state's tried-and-true formula of plentiful jobs, abundant sunshine and low taxes suddenly isn't enough to hold onto thousands of families as real-estate speculators and empty nesters are snapping up property, shrinking the supply of affordable homes for newcomers who traditionally pumped up school enrollment. And, despite being spared so far this year, there are signs of growing weariness following eight hurricanes that plowed into the Sunshine State in 2004 and 2005, causing insurance rates to skyrocket and some residents to move away before the next big storm hits. Last November, Kevin and Christy Kilpatrick left Plantation, near Fort Lauderdale, for rural Lawrenceburg, Tenn., to escape south Florida's escalating living costs, congestion and hurricanes...

[ddeclue]

1. WSJ - Masters of the obvious....

Tomorrows WSJ's headline: Sun rises in east - Will set in West.

As someone who moved to FL in 2000 (I worked here in the summer of 92 as well)..I can tell you first hand that Florida real estate prices have no relation to reality.

ECON101 supply and demand tells you that prices can't continue to go up forever when the people buying have no more income than they had 6 or 10 years ago (and likely less). Gas prices, insurance prices, medical prices, utility prices - everything is going up... real estate has become unaffordable for the upper middle class (lawyers, doctors, engineers, etc.) here in Florida much less the working poor and lower middle class. Soon Florida is going to either suffer a massive real estate market collapse (I hope so then I can buy) or everyone but the uber wealthy will have to leave this state.

I'm an engineer, single with no kids who makes good money but I can't afford to buy here in Florida - how do you do it with 2 kids, a wife and an average job?

I dunno...

Doug D.
Orlando, FL

[Herman Munster]

2. well you have to compromise

You either compromise in size or distance.

That may mean forgetting about buying a house close to your job for a smaller condo or townhouse.

Or it may mean communting 50 or more miles out from the exurbs so you can afford a big house.

That's what people in California have been doing for decades and Florida is the new California for the 21st century.

[ddeclue]

5. That just doesn't work in Florida....

Our level of traffic congestion is reaching monumental proportions (and mind you I have lived in Atlanta for 12 years as well as Detroit, Nashville, Hunstville AL, Phoenix AZ, Fort Lauderdale, and Orlando so I am not new to traffic congestion) because Florida is becoming one giant suburban sprawl mess.

There really isn't anywhere like that to move to here in Florida and the further away you live, the worse the travel time becomes. It really isn't practical to live more than 20 miles from your job in Central Florida because you will spend an hour+ in your car each way.

Condos and townhouses aren't affordable either - at least not in Florida.

The solution is that someone needs to get these developers under control and put an end to all the games that go on with Florida real estate.

Doug D.
Orlando, FL

[Herman Munster]

9. there are still some affordable parts of florida

ocala/gainesville/lakeland and especially the more rural counties surrounding them aren't too bad. They are much smaller metros than Orlando though, so the problem then becomes finding a job in your field there.

Also, a lot depends on your definition of affordable. I went to realtor.com and ran a scan of condos in the $150k range and there were hundreds of them. 546 to be exact between $125,000 and $175,000.

To me, that's affordable for a 1 bedroom or 2 bedroom condo, but I come from living in Miami where things are much more insane than Orlando.

See for yourself.

http://www.realtor.com/FindHome/HomeListings.asp?frm=bymap&nearbyZp=&lid=Enter+MLS+ID&pgnum=1&ss_aywr=&optInCheckbox=&st=FL&mls=xmls&lnksrc=&mnbed=0&js=on&mnsqft=0&fid=so&vtsort=&poe=realtor&mnprice=125000&ct=Orlando&zp=&primaryZp=&mxprice=175000&typ=2&exft=0&exft=0&exft=0&exft=0&mnbath=0&areaid=230

[ddeclue]

10. You ain't gonna get anything worth your money for

an ocala,gainesville and lakeland would only be practical if I could still afford to fly and I could fly from there to my job. All of those are well outside of commuting range for Orlando.

As for South Florida - I already understand that - I've lived in both parts of Florida:

Titusville 1992
Ft. Lauderdale 2000-2001
Melbourne 2001
Ft. Lauderdale 2001-2003
Phoenix 2002
Huntsville AL 2003
Orlando 2003-Present.

I was renting a 2BR/2BA apt with a garage for $1360/month when I left.

I'm renting a 2300 sq ft. house for 1200/month from a friend/coworker up here in Orlando.

It's much cheaper here than down South (although the weather's better down there.)

The cheapest area if I bought that I could reasonably commute from would be Brevard County - probably Titusville.

Doug D.
Orlando, FL

[Herman Munster]

11. i never meant ocala/gainesville/lakeland

would work from where your job is now in Orlando, only if you could transfer your job close to there or find a new job there.

That isn't always practical. But there is a lot to be said for moving to lower cost of living locations, even if you have to take a pay cut to do so. It's not what you make that counts. It's what you have left after paying all your expenses to pay yourself.

[graywarrior]

3. Not the main reason I left, but it played a big part in my decision

[mnhtnbb]

4. North Carolina is gaining Florida transplants.

[Aviation Pro]

6. Here in the Palm Coast - Ormond - Daytona Beach - Titusville area....

...the smart money is on renting. The Palm Coast area (formerly known as the fastest growing area in the U.S.) has 3,000 houses on the market begging for buyers or renters. A three-bedroom/two-bath can be had for $800/month and the owner can be possibly talked down for less.

With the overvalued market (upwards of 101% in Naples), Florida is due for an enema real soon as the five-family real estate oligarchy (led by our guess who, baby bro Jeb) faces up to the reality of supply and demand.

[ddeclue]

12. Ditto...

I'll wait till the bubble bursts..

Doug D.

[The Backlash Cometh]

7. I'll tell you want happened: Poor Community Development.

I've been trying to tell you that our cities have been infiltrated by realtors and our public land has been disappearing by inappropriate means. Even in our private communities, people are taking over the boards and deeding over common grounds to themselves and their cronies -- inappropriately. The kids have no where to go. The communities no longer have nearby parks where kids can walk to. I live in such a community which is hostile to the kids. The old farts don't want to put up a dime in Association fees or taxes to provide good facilities for them. And our worthless City Manager said that if you wait 8 years, the community reverts to a community of retirees, anyway, so don't invest in parks. The parks we did finally get came under duress, but you have to drive to them and you have to belong to special soccer teams in order to even use them. That son of a bitch created a self-fulfilling prophecy.

[onethatcares]

8. meanwhile

the taxpayers of our sunny state are going to give the St. Joe people 46 million dollars to plan for transportation around the developments they hope to build after destroying 400 acres of wetland for a damn airport that won't get any traffic. The insanity of the developers and the legislators with their hands in the developers pants is getting to be unbelieveable.