The Wall Street Journal
Families Flee Florida
Even as Housing Prices Cool, The Market Is Still So Hot People With Kids Are Leaving
By CHAD TERHUNE and RAFAEL GERENA-MORALES
September 27, 2006; Page B1
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The reason: School officials say that even though it has cooled in recent weeks, Florida's overheated housing market -- with the median existing-home price up 90% since 2001 to $248,400 in August -- is pricing young families out of the state. Ranking fourth in population among states, Florida remains one of the fastest-growing places in the country, adding an average of 1,000 new residents a day to its total of 18.3 million. But the state's tried-and-true formula of plentiful jobs, abundant sunshine and low taxes suddenly isn't enough to hold onto thousands of families as real-estate speculators and empty nesters are snapping up property, shrinking the supply of affordable homes for newcomers who traditionally pumped up school enrollment. And, despite being spared so far this year, there are signs of growing weariness following eight hurricanes that plowed into the Sunshine State in 2004 and 2005, causing insurance rates to skyrocket and some residents to move away before the next big storm hits.
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While school officials say a pause in the state's breakneck enrollment growth will help them to catch their breaths after years of frenzied teacher hiring and building expansion, economic-development officials are concerned that businesses will be deterred from moving to or expanding in Florida because of high home prices and not enough workers.
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Still, what's happening in Florida schools contrasts sharply with school districts in other U.S. metropolitan areas that have robust population growth. This fall, enrollment in the Wake County, N.C., public-school system, including Raleigh, rose 6%, or 7,388 students, to 127,767. School growth rates are holding steady in Las Vegas and surrounding Clark County, the country's fifth-largest school district. And enrollment in the suburban Atlanta district of Gwinnett County, Ga., increased by 5.1% to 151,903 students.
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More empty nesters and other property owners without school-age children isn't necessarily bad for local school districts and municipalities, which get to collect their property taxes without having to take in additional students. Economists note the longer-term concern is that these homeowners often don't support increased school spending and frequently oppose tax increases for education at the polls.
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For schools across Florida, the consequences of declining or flat enrollment are immediate. Since state funding is based on student levels, local administrators are being forced to cut expenses and reassign teachers to different schools. No major layoffs are expected, though, because most school districts start the academic year with dozens of teaching vacancies that can now be eliminated. In Tampa, the enrollment drop cost Chiles Elementary three teachers. The Parent Teacher Association donated money to keep a secretary in the media center after that position was eliminated.
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