Dueling Polls. Why should we believe *any* of them?

[longship]

There really is something going on under the rador this political season. For the past few weeks I've been posting this opinion on these forums. My premise is that things are seriously out of wack for the ChimpCo crowd but for some reason the polls aren't picking up the extent of how pissed-off the electorate truly is.

Two polls being reported today in the Lamont-Lieberman race are a perfect example.

Zogby Int'l - Latest polling shows Lamont gaining strongly and now within two points, within the MOE--a statistical dead heat.

Quinnipiac University -- Latest polling shows Lamont behind by 10 points and "losing momentum" (whatever that means).

Well, which is it? I say that they are both wrong. Furthermore, I say that it's likely that no polling done this year is going to be accurate. There's something happening this year that isn't being measured, or the sampling is missing a significantly influential segment of the electorate.

Why should we believe any candidate polls this year?

[rinsd]

1. You are in the echo chamber

"but for some reason the polls aren't picking up the extent of how pissed-off the electorate truly is."

I've heard this same line for 2 elections now and it does not wash.

Yes, ignore the polls(whether the Dem candidate is up or down) and continue to talk up Dem candidates and definitely join GOTV efforts but do not assume that the anger present at DU is even close to the anger of the populace or even rank and file Democrats.

[longship]

3. You are right, my feelings might be wrong.

But there's one thing I can't get out of my mind--everything is so one-sided this time. On every single issue Democrats are winning. Even the security issue is turning our way. The issue polls do seem stable and repeatable in this regard.

Also, not a single Democratic Party held seat is in serious jeopardy. Not one. The tightest race is NJ-Senate and no others are close. We could easily lose *no* seats in the House, and at most one seat in the Senate. But Menendez could win, too, making it a Democratic Party sweep.

I don't see "the same line for 2 elections" as a convincing argument. I did not see the last two election cycles what I'm seeing this time. I would not have made the same pronouncements before. There is truly something different this year and ChimpCo is doing nothing for their own benefit. All they have is "stay the course" and their dirty tricks, both of which are pissing people off even more. I see some shocking surprises in store for them in November. The torture issue is a non-starter for them.

And yes, I am working hard here in California. I almost wish I lived in Ohio, or a Red state where I could do more. But I do what I can here, and via the Net, elsewhere.

I remain very optimistic. If we all work hard we can and will do this. The tough nut to crack is the Senate but I think if we keep pushing the House will be ours by a comfortable margin.

[rinsd]

4. We've got to beat Ahnuld & Bilbray. We have our work cut out for us in CA.

I didn't mean to sound like I was poo pooing you. Encouraging polls are well...encouraging but always assume you are down 20 points in a race.

[Totallybushed]

2. There's only one poll

that counts for anything. Miss that one, and all the others show their true worth.

[Larkspur]

5. Remember, Lieberman won this seat by 0.5% against Weicker in 1988

This race was always going to be close. Lamont has work cut out for him to win over Indies.

I started phone banking yesterday in my corner of CT, and most people out of the 12 pages I did were Undecided about this race, and that included a handful of Republicans.