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Many races still have significant percentages in the "Undecided" column. With one short week left in the campaign it's time to pay attention to those professed undecided voters. Because of the political environment favors the Democrats this year, these voters will probably break for the Democrats. The only question is, by how much. If one assigns values from the generic Congressional ballot the Dems could gain a point or two as more undecideds pull the D lever than the R lever. In the closest races, that may be enough.
Now, one could make all sorts of arguments for how these undecideds will vote, but I like the one that asks, "If the Republicans haven't sold their plan at this late date, the Democrats aren't Democrats more likely to get the benefit of the doubt?"
Another dynamic which may be important is when there is a strong Dem candidate up-ticket. Safe statewide Dem candidates for Governor, US Senate, or other statewide offices could also pay benefits. This certainly may pay off in states like OH or PA where both the Governor and Senate races are heavily favored for us Dems. Down ticket, races like Mean Jean Schmidt vs Dr. Victoria Wulsin may pay off for the Democrat. Coat-tails may be important this year.
So, when you see a poll of likely voters that has the Dem behind 39/37 and 15% undecided, remember that the two percent could easily be made up by those 15% of voters who are having a lot of trouble committing to a Republican incumbent. That cannot be good news for the GOP.
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