Employment Rate Question

[dennis4868]

I know the economy is not good at all for those in the middle class. Most people I know just make enough money each month to get by, including myself. But why is the employment rate at 4.4%? Why is it so low? You would think if it really was that low things would be much better for folks in the country. Perhaps Bush and his thugs are playing with the numbers and not telling us the truth? What's going on?

[Roland99]

1. Read through this thread. Esp. the link in Post #4 >>>>>

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=364&topic_id=2571776&mesg_id=2571776

[Hamlette]

12. if they poll 60,000 households each month, how come I've never be called?

I've answered calls for many polls over the years (many!) but I've never been polled on employment and I don't know anyone who has.

I'm missing something.
http://www.shadowstats.com/cgi-bin/sgs/article/id=341

[Roland99]

13. I've never been called either.

But, now I'm not listed and have VoIP and cell. No more "landline" thru a phone company.

[dennis4868]

14. does the survey....

actually call people on the phone? Can't they complete the survey with tax records and other public information/government information without having to call people on the phone.

[liberaldemocrat7]

15. 4.4% reflects the UNEMPLOYMENT insurance benefits collectors rate

They compute this at the beginning of each month when those who have just lost their benefits after 6 months of collecting unemployment insurance no longer get counted as unemployed which makes the rate appear much lower than the truth. Even then for a factual unemployment rate the labor department needs to count those people whose benefits expire and still seek work. If they released this rate at the end of the month, it would still not reflect those who has their benefits expire over the last few years but at least it would appear higher because over the month new people file for unemployment insurance benefits.

Spread the word.

[Roland99]

16. No, it doesn't. It's PURELY a HOUSEHOLD survey. See my link above.

[Hamlette]

17. My guess is they don't really call people, but "survey" implies it

I'll try to find out next week. I think I knew this at one time. (Believe it or not, I work for the unemployment office, but in my defense, I don't work in the LMI division (Labor market Information))

[Roland99]

18. They do call people. Using 3 call centers and an automated system.

Labor Force Data Derived from the Current Population Survey
http://www.bls.gov/opub/hom/homch1_g.htm

Each month, during the calendar week containing the 19th day, interviewers contact a “responsible” person in each of the sample households in the CPS. At the time of the first enumeration of a household, the interviewer visits the household and prepares a roster of the household members, including their personal characteristics (date of birth, sex, race, ethnic origin, marital status, educational attainment, veteran status, and so on) and their relationship to the person maintaining the household. The interviewers enter this information into laptop computers. This roster is then checked for accuracy and brought up to date at each subsequent interview to take account of new or departed residents, changes in marital status, and similar items. The information on personal characteristics is thus available each month for identification purposes and for cross-classification with economic characteristics of the sample population.

Personal visits are preferred in the first month in which the household is in the sample. In other months, the interview generally is conducted by telephone. Approximately 70 percent of the households in any given month are interviewed by telephone. A portion of the households (10 percent) is interviewed via computer-assisted telephone interviewing (CATI), from three centralized telephone centers (located in Hagerstown, MD; Jeffersonville, IN; and Tucson, AZ) by interviewers who also use a computerized questionnaire.

At each monthly visit, a series of standard questions on labor market activity during the preceding week is asked about each household member 15 years of age and older. (As previously mentioned, the official labor force estimates pertain to those aged 16 and older.) The primary purpose of these questions is to classify the sample population into the three basic economic groups: The employed, the unemployed, and those not in the labor force.

At the end of each day’s interviewing, the data collected are transmitted to the Census Bureau’s central computer in Washington, DC. Once files are transmitted to the main computer, they are deleted from the laptops.

Because of the crucial role interviewers have in the household survey, a great amount of time and effort is spent maintaining the quality of their work. Interviewers are given intensive training, including classroom lectures, discussion, practice, observation, home-study materials, and on-the-job training. At least once a year, they convene for daylong training and review sessions, and, also at least once a year, they are accompanied by a supervisor during a full day of interviewing to determine how well they carry out their assignments.

A selected number of households are reinterviewed each month to determine whether the information obtained in the first interview was correct. The information gained from these interviews is used to improve the entire training program.

[Hamlette]

20. sounds more like Nielson ratings, uses certain households

[suston96]

2. You got it.......

You answered your own question - Bush and his number crunchers are playing with themselves......

There is a whole discussion on "unemployment rates." Google it.

[LynzM]

3. One important note about the unemployment rate

Unemployment numbers are based on a survey of households. Also, after a certain period of time being "unemployed", you stop counting toward that number. I don't remember off the top of my head how long. So the rate could be more like 10% if you count everyone who's given up and stopped looking.

This page has a good, long, explanation, with examples: http://www.bls.gov/cps/cps_htgm.htm

[INdemo]

9. Thats coorect ..If a persons unemployment benefits have expired. they

are counted as being employed since they dont sign up for weekly benefits.

[VeggieTart]

4. If I remember correctly..

The unemployment rate doesn't include those who are not earning Unemployment Compensation, doesn't count people who are UNDERemployed, doesn't count people who have given up looking for a decent job. Like all statistics, it leaves out a lot of stuff. Check out Barbara Ehrenreich's Bait and Switch for an indication of the problems facing white-collar workers. Many have taken low-paying menial jobs (the sort she worked in Nickel and Dimed) just to get by.

[WestSeattle2]

5. GM and Ford employees who lost those jobs but who are now

working at Barnes & Noble or Wal-Mart, are fully employed. They just took a $30\hour cut in pay.

[dennis4868]

6. Unfortunately....

I am in the same situation. It's tough out there!!!

[WestSeattle2]

7. I really do feel your pain!

Sorry to hear you're in a tough spot, hopefully things will swing your way soon. I HATED being unemployed. I'll keep my fingers crossed for you.

[MazeRat7]

8. Well if the "streets" reaction is worth noting... it doesn't mean squat.

A strong start for Wall Street quickly turned into retreat Friday as the latest data on the job market added to the recent string of mixed readings on the health of the economy.

Or in other words, the data was not significant to bait the traders into buying...

MZr7

[INdemo]

10. We kmow the real unemployment numbers will come out

as soon as the Democrats take over.The Repukes of course will do everyhing possible to make the Democrats look bad for the next two years..

[satya]

11. The real number is 58,000 non-government jobs created in October, according to Up2Late:

Marketplace just reported that the 4.4% jobless # is based on the "Household Survey"...

[sweetheart]

19. Are you an employee or a citizen?

An employment rate presumes that it is right that employment happen in the form that
the 'rate' describes, yes? If it were not 'right', then society would be based on a
foundation of shit, but alas, it is not right. Then, employment, is a plantation
number to describe the society as a plantation with useful slaves and less useful slaves.

The slave is systemically broken of all their attachments and sent about between jobs and
cities without any personal relationships, rootless forever, a perfect utopia of flexible
labour. And from this ethos of the perfecta, every single common is charging the poor
for acess, and once again, like in the english acts of enclosure, and with other ethnic cleansings
and privatizations, the low employment is just who's on the record, and all the ones who are not, are not,
pushed out to somewhere else like los angeles or pheonix where being homeless is relatively warm, a
nonvoting externality disenfranchised like the bushishtas do so effectively in columbia, and other
client evil states, and a frigid social safety net stripped bankrupt in its foundation of war, its muck of
humanity, the hate, the toxic footprint of overpopulated stupidity, a greed grab for
the remaining resources to the bottom, and a billion people abandoned in urban ghettos
that our planet become a hell planet, with a few colonies of higher growth
in clusters here and there, grossly degenerated to an age where self knowledge
is all but a myth whispered elsewhere but the corproate spectrum.

We are employed if we guard our society from stupid war and destruction,
as what is employment if it is not to look out for the people one loves,
and what employment is there, out of the whole petrocorporate mess, that will
cut the chains of slavery and the description of citizenship as employee.