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whistle Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-19-06 10:39 PM
Original message
Excuse me...."$119 trillion notional amount of outstanding derivatives"
....The entire world economy generates only $41.5 trillion. Financial derivatives were the brain-child of Alan Greenspan and are nothing but gambling debts. But, these poorly managed financial pyramid schemes are about to come crashing down taking most of the world's economy down with it.


<snip>
November 10, 2006

Comptroller Dugan Tells Bankers that Managing Risk in Derivatives Markets
Is Essential to Maintain Public Confidence in Nation’s Financial Institutions

PHOENIX – Comptroller of the Currency John C. Dugan said today that ensuring effective management of the large credit risks that have accumulated in the derivatives portfolios of the major trading banks is a matter of concern for all banks, even those not active in derivatives markets.

“Significant mismanagement of these risks could precipitate market disruptions that affect public confidence in financial institutions generally,” he said in a speech to the New York Bankers Association’s annual convention. The OCC's most recent quarterly report on derivatives shows that nearly one in six national banks uses derivatives to control and reduce uncertainty and risk.
<.....>
Operational risk – the risk that arises from trade and settlement processing – has surfaced most prominently in the rapidly expanding market for credit derivatives, the Comptroller said.

“We found that the processing infrastructure for these often sophisticated risk management products was decidedly unsophisticated and ‘low tech,’ with significant manual trade confirmations in a high volume business,” he said. “As a result, we observed an unacceptably high volume of unconfirmed transactions and undisclosed trade assignments – a practice where a hedge fund counterparty arranges for another dealer to assume its position without informing the derivatives dealer.”

The Comptroller noted that five institutions, all national banks, account for 97 percent of the $119 trillion notional amount of outstanding derivatives and said that type of concentration would ordinarily be a significant concern for the OCC.

But derivatives aren’t like other products, he said. “Given the resource commitment necessary to conduct a derivatives business in a safe and sound manner, and the critical importance of credit quality to assure performance on contracts, it is understandable that derivatives activity is concentrated in those few institutions with the requisite credit strength and scale required to effectively compete,” Mr. Dugan said.

“Of course, we supervise large dealer banks with the goal of ensuring that they are well capitalized and have the necessary expertise, personnel, and resources to manage their derivatives effectively – a process that also should help mitigate concentration risk,” the Comptroller added.

<link> http://www.occ.treas.gov/toolkit/newsrelease.aspx?Doc=HI14R11T.xml
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eallen Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-19-06 10:52 PM
Response to Original message
1. Greenspan didn't invent derivatives. And you can't tell much by the notional amount alone...
Derivatives are contracts to pay on certain conditions. If people were financial instruments, life insurance would be a derivative. But should we be frightened because of the notional sum of all existing life insurance policies? 'Tis true, if every insured person died tomorrow, the insurance industry would owe more money than it ever could pay out. But that's not going to happen. One can imagine plausible events that will break the actuarial tables, e.g., a nuclear war between the US and China kills a fifth the population. But any such event is going to be catastrophic in its own right. And life insurance excludes acts of war. The insurance companies are no dummies. Of course, the insurance companies do expect to pay on every life insurance policy. They just expect, on average, to collect enough in premiums to profit in doing so.

Of course, the notional amount of life insurance would be scary if there weren't solid actuarial science behind it. Financial derivatives are more worrisome because it's not clear to most people that those bets are properly hedged. We hope it is clear to the banks and other institutions that write the derivatives. But the issue is more the risk management, than the notional amount.

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BlooInBloo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-19-06 10:58 PM
Response to Reply #1
2. Very good. That's what happens when the under-educated get their hands on....
a snippet of inforation...

(Yes, I know you yourself would not have put it that way.)

ROFLMAO! Greenspan invented derivatives. LOLOL! That's just so STOOIPD! Unless Greenspan is 300-400 years old, I suppose.
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salib Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-19-06 11:12 PM
Response to Reply #2
8. And Gore invented the internet?
Be careful about the term "STOOIPD", OK? (also, speaking of a "snippet of information")

Back to derivatives, it is true the the sheer quantity and potential dollar amount is not necessarily the most concerning measure of risk. Nevertheless, it is an upper limit on the ultimate level of potential risk.

Risk has many dimensions. Probability of particular scenarios is indeed one. However, it is also important to remember the "potential worst case", even if the probability is low. Two immediate reasons for considering this latter aspect are:

1. Catastrophic worst cases would, if they occur, be "catastrophic." We must ensure that they are nearly zero likelihood possibilities to the greatest degree that we can. They do demand special attention and should not be allowed as a possibility, especially when contrived.

2. Such possibilities have greatly enhanced impact on the "rational" choices of people (investors, planners, etc.). Thus, such possibilities deserve more consideration that their "relative risk."

But, maybe I am just "STOOIPD"?

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BlooInBloo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-19-06 11:18 PM
Response to Reply #8
11. Um, I was talking about the OP. That's the only possible person for whom...
... my statements *make sense*.
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papau Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-19-06 11:29 PM
Response to Reply #8
12. "it is an upper limit on the ultimate level of potential risk" - of what? I do not .
follow how you are using the notional amount as a measure of the danger to the economy of derivative investing. Even as a measure of the danger to a particular institution the notional amount of all derivatives on the books is not informative. The amount of credit risk exposure of course is informative, as is its concentration in a few institutions or instriments - indeed all the usual rules apply.
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whistle Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-19-06 11:05 PM
Response to Reply #1
4. I agree, 301 million Americans won't die all at once, but five major banks
...can all go bankrupt at once and they account for 97% of that $119 trillion, which is now based on eleven month old data, so that number is far higher, perhaps over $140 trillion. Couple that to the real estate bubble about to burst and Freddie Mack/Fannie May way over extended in the quad-trillions of dollars and that is a lot of shekels about to go up in smoke.
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papau Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-19-06 11:11 PM
Response to Reply #4
7. The amount that one side gains the other side loses - nothing goes up in smoke
unless the credit risk goes bad - and then the other side of the deal turns out to have more risk on the books than they should have - or have capital for - and that requires some adjustments.

The notional hundreds of "trillions" is not real - is not a measure of the market size - although the market is huge.
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whistle Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-19-06 11:29 PM
Response to Reply #7
13. Here is what Warren Buffett said about derivatives:
"We view them as time bombs both for the parties that deal in them and the economic system ... In our view ... derivatives are financial weapons of mass destruction, carrying dangers that, while now latent, are potentially lethal." -- Warren Buffett

"The job of a derivatives trader is like that of a bookie once removed, taking bets on people making bets."

The description above comes from "Into the Fire" a novel about fraudulent trading in derivatives, by Linda Davies.

<link> http://www.ex.ac.uk/~RDavies/arian/scandals/derivatives.html

It sure makes it look like we are all going over Niagara Falls where the derivatives traders are in one barrel and the rest of us are being pulled by lines over with them. I say, why not just cut the lines and let the barrel go over with the hedge fund bettors.
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papau Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-19-06 11:47 PM
Response to Reply #13
14. To an individual institution Buffet's warning makes sense - but not to the economy - or to
that same institution if that institution wants to either minimise risk or only retain only the risks that it has expertise in handling/

This is a good explanation.

http://www.financialpolicy.org/dscprimer.htm

Derivatives contracts have been found written on clay tablets from Mesopotamia that date to 1750 B.C. Aristotle mentioned an option on the use of olive oil presses in his Politics some 2,500 years ago. The Japanese traded futures-like contracts on warehouse receipts or rice in the 1700s. In the U.S., forward and futures contracts have been formally traded on the Chicago Board of Trade since 1849. Today the size of derivatives markets is estimated by the Bank of International Settlements to exceed $109 trillion in outstanding contracts and over $400 trillion in trading volume on derivatives exchanges.



Derivatives are useful for hedging the risks normally associated with commerce and finance. Farmers can use derivatives the hedge the risk that the price of their crops fall before they are harvested and brought to market. Banks can use derivatives to reduce the risk that the short-term interest rates they pay to their depositors will rise against the fixed interest rate they earn on their loans and other assets. Pension funds and insurance companies can use derivatives to hedge against large drops in the value of their portfolios.



As an indication of the dangers they pose, it is worthwhile recalling a shortened list of recent disasters. Long-Term Capital Management collapsed with $1.4 trillion in derivatives on their books. Sumitomo Bank in Japan used derivatives their manipulation of the global copper market for years prior to 1996. Barings bank, one of the oldest in Europe, was quickly brought to bankruptcy by over a billion dollars in losses from derivatives trading. Both the Mexican financial crisis in 1994 and the East Asian financial crisis of 1997 were exacerbated by the use of derivatives to take large positions on the exchange rate. Most recently, the collapse of a major commodity derivatives dealer Enron Corporation has lead to the largest bankruptcy in U.S. history.



The first public interest concerns posed by derivatives comes from the leverage they provide to both hedgers and speculators. Derivatives transactions allow investors to take a large price position in the market while committing only a small amount of capital – thus the use of their capital is leveraged. Derivatives traded in over-the-counter markets have no margin or collateral requirements, and the industry standard has shown to be deeply flawed by recent failures.



Leverage makes it cheaper for hedgers to hedge, but it also makes it cheaper to speculate. Instead of buying $1 million of Treasury bonds or $1 million of stock, an investor can buy futures contracts on $1 million of the bonds or stocks with only a few thousand dollars of capital committed as margin (the capital commitment is even smaller in the over-the-counter derivatives markets). The returns from holding the stocks or bonds will be the same as holding the futures on the stocks or bonds. This allows an investor to earn a much higher rate of return on their capital by taking on a much larger amount of risk.



Taking on these greater risks raises the likelihood that an investor, even a major financial institution, suffers large losses. If they suffer large losses, then they are threatened with bankruptcy. If they go bankrupt, then the people, banks and other institutions that invested in them or lent money to them will face losses and in turn might face bankruptcy themselves. This spreading of the losses and failures gives rise to systemic risk, and it is an economy wide problem that is made worse by leverage and leveraging instruments such as derivatives. When people suffer damages, even though they were not counterparties or did any business with a failed investor or financial institution, then individual incentives and rules of caveat emptor are not sufficient to protect the public good. In this case, prudential regulation is needed – not to protect fools from themselves, but to protect others from the fools.



http://www.reason.com/news/show/29033.html

Three of the six largest bankruptcies in American history -- WorldCom, Enron, and Global Crossing -- occurred between December 2001 and July 2002, shattering investor confidence and helping to knock 22 percent off the Dow Jones Industrial Average. The failures had more in common than just timing and size: All to varying extents involved the use of the controversial and poorly understood financial instruments known as derivatives.

In the season of finger pointing that followed, derivatives trading was singled out for abuse. "If you dig deep enough into any financial scandal," BBC business reporter Emma Clark claimed in February 2002, "you can usually find a derivative or two to take the blame." Howard Davies, chairman of the U.K. Financial Services Authority, told a conference the month before that an investment banker described to him one popular type of derivative (collateralized debt obligations) as "the most toxic element of the financial markets today." Even famed investor Warren Buffett warned that derivatives posed a grave threat to the global financial system. "We view them as time bombs, both for the parties that deal in them and the economic system," Buffett wrote in his 2002 annual report for Berkshire Hathaway. "Derivatives are financial weapons of mass destruction, carrying dangers that, while now latent, are potentially lethal."

The common denominator in all these products is that they allow companies and private investors to trade away risk with which they are ill equipped to deal and focus instead on taking risks in areas in which they specialize. Many international corporations, for example, use currency derivatives to swap out their exposure to exchange rate fluctuations. This allows them to focus on their core business while allowing professional currency traders to worry about international valuations.

<snip>In response to the various derivatives disasters (to individual institutions), many have suggested that the government should become more active in regulating these new markets. Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.), following the Enron bankruptcy, proposed giving the Commodity Futures Trading Commission regulatory oversight over all derivative transactions. (Her proposal was defeated in roll-call votes in 2001 and 2002.) State agencies should certainly pay more attention to their own derivatives trading. But there are a number of pitfalls in increasing the regulation of private derivatives trading.

<snip>Government bailouts of failing investments create a similar moral hazard. The stronger the expectation of a government safety net, the less investors will concern themselves with the risks inherent in the investment. When the average private corporation makes a mistake with derivatives, it suffers a loss. After a few mistakes, it either goes out of business or learns its lesson and changes its practices. But large private hedge funds and money-center banks know that they are "too big to fail," at least in the government's eyes. In the event of a financial catastrophe, they expect to be bailed out by government deposit insurance and the Fed. Such bailouts came to be commonplace under Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan, especially when he was teamed with Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin.<snip>

...there are significant risks involved with the fantastic voyage finance has undertaken in the last 20 years. But increased government intervention is likely only to heighten that risk.

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whistle Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-19-06 11:59 PM
Response to Reply #14
15. So who exactly gained from the Enron bankruptcy brought about
...by unrestrained financial derivatives fraud? Certainly not the economy as a whole.
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papau Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Nov-20-06 08:17 AM
Response to Reply #15
16. Enron bankruptcy was not the result of financial derivatives fraud - the losses
were on the "real businesses" -

The fraud was to investors because of balance and income sheet presentations that made use of US Acct'g rules that were a bit nuts and allowed one to establish corporations funded by the parent stock who then took on parent debt - in effect making the debt disappear from the books.

The FASB - the US Accounting God - has tightened up a bit - but such SPE -special purpose entities or SPC - special purpose companies - are still possible - but hopefully with more disclosure.

Where the money went was the usual - to the senior management. the hired managers - the paid employees - not owners came in rather poor and were determined to leave billionaires. I believe the CEO stole 700 million, the others less. The economy was hurt because of the investor asset loss, but the economy had been helped earlier by money moving about, so net-net it was not a big deal.

Consumers were not helped even in the good days as Enron did not charge especially low prices, it simply had a very high cost - unnecessarily high cost - of providing those services - causing losses that that were hidden by accounting fraud.

But it was not derivative fraud - they actually had hired some good math majors and were making a bit of money on their investments in derivatives. Not that being good at math means you always make money investing in derivatives - it is a zero sum game - but you always transfer risk which helps the enterprise.
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eallen Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Nov-20-06 09:33 AM
Response to Reply #13
17. Listen to Warren Buffett. He is a wise man.
I suspect his concern is the same as the referenced article's: that many institutions are not managing their risk properly.

I wish everyone read Warren Buffett.

:hippie:
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papau Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-19-06 11:06 PM
Response to Reply #1
5. Well said - :-)
:-)
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papau Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-19-06 11:04 PM
Response to Original message
3. Financial derivatives are a great development - great for risk management -but
as the article says, the credit risk of the other side of the derivative is always a concern.

The notional amount has no meaning - the amount that would transfered between parties is the credit risk - not the notional amount.

Things got wild in this market with EU people or private corporations - often owned by US folks - came out of the wall with the ability to take on $5 billion dollar transactions - and while the major financial institutions watch out for credit risk, others did not.

The real problem in this market are the folks who are not using derivatives to minimize the real risk that there assets face, but who are treating derivatives as leveraged bets that have more "alpha". Many a pension fund has bit off more than they should based on stupid financial advice.

This - as a market - is not something to worry about, beyond the fact that the middleman fees are much too high - yielding the brokerage houses major profit increases, and the investment bankers and brokers quarter million dollar AVERAGE bonuses.

In the chase for more alpha (greater return) some derivative relationship bets are leading edge concepts - and wrong - as in the gas futures guy that dropped 6 billion of his 11 billion dollar fund this last August om a hedging derivative that did not work. He had made huge profits for his billionair private investors - so they could handle the loss - but that was dramatic. But that was hedge fund non-supervision problems - not a problem of the concept of derivative investing.
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Octafish Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-19-06 11:06 PM
Response to Original message
6. And they're all tied to real property...
... from what I've heard. Mostly real estate and stocks and bonds. Should they underperform or should America's housing values crash, the quake could bring down the whole house of cards.

PS: I'm no expert, but that never stopped me from stating an opinion.
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Jed Dilligan Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-19-06 11:16 PM
Response to Reply #6
9. That's basically what my very successful ex-boss told me
and he'd made millions in the market. I'm not an expert, either--I used to pay his bills, vacuum the office, etc.--but I would trust him (a nearly autistic math nerd) over any number of "experts" whose job it is to push financial instruments.
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papau Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-19-06 11:17 PM
Response to Reply #6
10. LOL - all opinions are always welcome. "tied to stocks" could mean a
Edited on Sun Nov-19-06 11:20 PM by papau
a million dollars changes hands if the market goes up a hundred points, or goes down a hundred points. It does not mean the notional value is paid to anyone or that s crash would be worse because of the existence of derivatives.

Trust your Actuary! (and this is the one side of the profession that does pay well as the math - the correlations developed and bet on - are very important to risk management.)

Your comment on a housing values crash is very true - it would be horrible for the economy - but again, as with the idea of a stock market crash, derivatives would not make things worse for the economy as a whole.
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whistle Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Nov-20-06 01:42 PM
Response to Original message
18. UPDATE: the U.S. is an economy of buccaneers and fantasists....
<snip>
October 2006 Issue -- Le Monde diplomatique

An economy of buccaneers and fantasists
Weapons of Mass Financial Destruction

Last month a major US hedge fund, Amaranth Advisors, lost more than half its assets in a week, speculating on natural gas prices. The company proved correct the chief worry of such major financial institutions as the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund: that financial reality is now out of control.

By Gabriel Kolko

GLOBAL financial structure is far less transparent now than it has ever been. A few decades ago daily payments for foreign exchange transactions were roughly equivalent to the capital stock of a major United States bank; today they exceed the combined capital of the top 100 US banks. Financial adventurers constantly create new products that defy nation states and international banks. This May the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) managing director, Rodrigo de Rato, deplored these new risks, which the weakness of the US dollar and the US’s mounting trade deficits have greatly magnified.

<....>
Warren Buffett, Forbes-listed as the second richest person in the world, has called credit derivatives “financial weapons of mass destruction”. Nominally they are insurance against defaults, but they encourage greater gambles and credit expansion, which are moral hazards. Enron (14) used them extensively; they were a secret of Enron’s success and also of its eventual bankruptcy with $100bn losses. They are not monitored in any real sense, and experts have called them “maddeningly opaque”. Many innovative financial products, according to a finance director, only “exist in cyberspace”, often as tax dodges for the ultra-rich (15).

Banks do not understand the chain of exposure and who owns what: senior financial regulators and bankers now admit this. Hedge funds claim to be honest, but those who guide them are compensated for the profits they make, which means taking risks. There are thousands of hedge funds and many collect inside information. This is technically illegal but it happens anyway.

<....>As long as interest rates have been low, leveraged loans (17) have been the solution. Because of hedge funds and other financial instruments, there is now a market for incompetent and debt-ridden firms. When the Ford Motor Company announced last month that it was losing over $7bn annually, its bonds actually shot up 20%. The rules once associated with capitalism, such as probity and profit, no longer hold....The International Swaps and Derivatives Association revealed that one in every five deals, many of them involving billions of dollars, had major errors. As the volume of trade increased, so did the errors. They doubled after 2004. More than 90% of all deals in the US were not properly recorded, but put down only on paper and often just scraps at that. <MORE>

http://mondediplo.com/2006/10/02finance
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