New Census Numbers a Bright Spot for GOP

[Herman Munster]

http://blog.washingtonpost.com/thefix/

Just days before Christmas -- paging a public relations professional! -- the U.S. Census Bureau released a slew of data documenting population growth in various states and regions across the country. At first glance, the numbers appear encouraging for Republicans. The ten states with the highest percentage population growth between July 1, 2005 and July 1, 2006 -- Arizona, Nevada, Idaho, Georgia, Texas, Utah, North Carolina, Colorado, Florida and South Carolina -- were carried by President George W. Bush in 2004.

Regionally, too, the highest population growth is in areas that are Republican-red. The states comprising the South gained 1.5 million people over the past year, and the region now accounts for 36 percent of the national population. The West picked up more than 1 million people in the same period and now makes up 23 percent of the population; the Midwest gained 281,000 people and represents 22 percent of the nation's population total. The Northeast, which produced Democratic gains in the House and Senate in 2006, added just 62,000 people and is now the smallest region of the country with 18 percent of the population.

But to understand the political implications of the population numbers we must look forward, not back. Following the 2010 Census, congressional district boundary lines across the country will be redrawn -- a process largely controlled by state legislatures and governors. Therefore, the party in control of the growing states following the 2010 election will largely determine whether Democrats or Republicans in future congressional elections will benefit from the population fluctuations.

On this micro-level, Republicans still look well-positioned. In six of the ten fastest growing states -- Idaho, Georgia, Texas, Utah, Florida and South Carolina -- the GOP controls the governorship as well as both legislative houses. Five of those states will host governor's races in 2010. The exception is Utah, where Gov. Jon Huntsman (R) is near certain to win in 2008. South Carolina and Georgia will host open-seat contests as term-limits will force Republican incumbents out of office in 2010. In Idaho and Florida, first-term GOP governors will likely stand for a second term. Texas Gov. Rick Perry, who was elected to a second term in November, is not bound by term limits.

Democrats control all three levers of the redistricting process in just two states: North Carolina and Colorado. North Carolina Gov. Mike Easley (D) is term limited in 2008 and both sides are gearing up for a major fight. In Colorado, Democrats have made major gains over the past two elections (the latest triumph being the election of Gov.-elect Bill Ritter (D) in November) and they should feel good about the 2012 elections.

[Dogmudgeon]

1. "Bright spot" -- is that like the infamous "Wet spot"?

:evilgrin:

--p!

[cdnwannabe]

2. It all comes back to, for me anyway, you get what you vote for....

and if those states want to keep voting in the Bushbot types, then they do so at their peril. Maybe it's time to start talking about carving up this country.

My girlfriend and I were in Vancouver B.C. this weekend and we were watching an outdoor comedy and magic performance. The performer asked if there were any americans in the audience and my girlfriend said "we're Oregonians"

[PsN2Wind]

3. Many of those moving here to AZ

are from Norteastern areas. So the population growth could be more beneficial to the Democrats by reducing the redness of these states.

[Herman Munster]

4. yeah

north carolina and virginia too

lots of northeasterns coming down and eventually Texas will turn blue as more hispanics become citizens and the hispanics who were born here but are now children come of age.

Texas is about 20 years behind California but it'll get there.

[Tempest]

5. Here's where the Post gets it wrong

The population changes to the states the Posts talks about are due to:

1) migration from traditionally blue states.
2) immigration, and immigrants have voted Democrat in larger numbers in the last two elections.

[bigbrother05]

6. Even though the SCOTUS made TX redraw

a couple of districts, Delay's gerrymandering had a mixed effect. There were a couple of pick ups for the Dems in 2006. As others pointed out, much of the increases are from the blue states with the prospect that the tinges of purple will grow bluer over time.