Hypothetical exercise

[sanskritwarrior]

I'm sure this has been done on DU at least 12 times, but I am a newbie and I would like to hear your answers
Iran says its nuclear program is for peace, let's say it is not. Let's say that in 2012 Iran has developed a stockpile of 50 nuclear weapons. Let's assume that the leader of Iran is as crazy as some have said he is. Let's say he launches 5 Nukes and takes out Tel Aviv, Jerusalem and Haifa. Let's say that the UN condemns Iran and imposes sanctions. Let's say that Iran then promises to launch the weapons at European capitals one at a time unless the US and its allies leave every country under the sway of Islam. Finally let's say that Iran mobilizes its huge army and prepares to attack Iraq. What does the US and the rest of the world do?

I know this is all highly unlikely, but I like what if scenarios.......Call it alternate future history.

[Canadian_NewDemocrat]

1. well..

I cant say, but I know the world would probably do more than impose sanctions after a country is nuked by Iran, let alone an ally as close as Israel.

I do think the world should definately monitor the situation to say the least, even though the US is quite likely exxagerating the threat. That's also another drawback of the pre-emptive Iraq War, no one takes the US seriously anymore in it's claims, so if a real threat were to emerge, it would be hard to get the world to cooperate and neutralize it together...sigh

oh and welcome to DU btw...and yeah, check out my blog and the usual jazz.......:)

[rpgamerd00d]

2. Hypothetical is off.

If Iran actually got some nukes, the first thing it would do, is test one.

Tests will be detected.

Following the test, Iran will be attacked by Israel, and likely the US also.

[Viva_La_Revolution]

3. newbies come up with some of the best questions!

I'll have to think on that for a while. Problem is, I can't get past the first sentence... "Let's say that in 2008 Iran has developed a stockpile of 50 nuclear weapons."

Problem is, that's impossible. They aren't far enough along in the process. We have 5-10 years before this is a real threat.

But I'm trying to play along! :hi:

[sanskritwarrior]

4. I edited it

to 2012

[MadMaddie]

5. What if Iran is playing chicken? Knowing that junior * is a bully

and doesn't take taunting from another bully very well....

What if Iran is trying to make American continue it's downward slide by attacking Iran because of ...wait for it....wait for it...."Because Iran poses a direct threat to America".....(Not really but this will be their excuse)

[Roland99]

6. Quite flawed even for a hypothetical.

Iran launches nukes and takes out major Israeli cities and the UN imposes sanctions as retaliation?

:wtf:

[sanskritwarrior]

10. Ok

what would the UN do then?

[Roland99]

13. The UN would be moot. Israel would have already struck back

and I'd be surprised if the US, Pakistan, and India had refrained from launches.

[sanskritwarrior]

14. Ok what if troops

were still in Iraq........would we still strike back. and what if Israel is caught a la Pearl Harbor??

[Roland99]

15. Missile launches would be detected and as soon as they were...

retaliatory strikes would be made.

Your hypothetical just doesn't have much to stand on.

[sanskritwarrior]

19. LOL

that's why it is a hypothetical......

[Roland99]

20. Well, usually hypotheticals are something that has a reasonable chance of happening.

:D

[sanskritwarrior]

21. That's one opinion

n/t

[Roland99]

23. What's the point of them otherwise?

If I came up with a What If of, oh, "What if aliens provided Iran with photon torpedoes and phasers?"


;)

[sanskritwarrior]

27. It gives us

something to talk about. How many Sheehan rocks/sheehan sucks Ford was ok/Ford was the devil threads do you need? I would actually like to talk about aliens providing one country with advanced technology that's quite fascinating.....

[intaglio]

7. Stupid set of "What Ifs"

well the first thing that would happen after Israel was nuked would be that Israel would nuke the country of origin.

Sanctions? you jest. Turkey, Syria and Jordan would look to wipe out the country that had just poisoned their air, water and land. India - no friend of Islaam - would take an interest.

[unsavedtrash]

8. not sure about the world but I would join the Iranian Resistance Army

I am not for arming the world in general but definitely not Iran. My bosses are covered with scars from the "protection" given to them, their families and other Iranian people by that crazy fuck and his secret police. So, like I said, who knows about the world but I would hook up with others trying to put a stop that possible future.

[bigwillq]

9. Hello!

Welcome to DU!

:hi:

[eallen]

11. Israel has missile subs. The moment their radar confirms a missile strike from Iran....

Well, that's why it's called mutually assured destruction.

[sanskritwarrior]

12. Israeli

diesel electric subs do not posess enough nukes to destroy Iran

[frogcycle]

16. ok, now that we all agree the hypothetical is flawed

lets rework it into something closer to imagineable

say Iran continues its program, develops and tests nukes, the world protests mightily and tries sanctions, but its the usual sound and fury signifying nothing

they don't strike Israel and then issue their demands - they launch a rocket into the indian ocean to demonstrate their delivery capability and let inspectors see their 50 bombs and 50 similar rockets. Then they issue their demands, with threats.

How far do the US, France, GB, Russia, India, Pakistan, China let them go? Does the world call their bluff and wait for the first launch? Or launch first? Or??

[sanskritwarrior]

18. I like this better

Sounds good

[mmonk]

17. Hard to think in those terms when

just trying to get nuclear energy makes them be seen as a threat that needs to be hit (possibly with nuclear weapons). In other words, Iran even being able to stock pile any nuclear weapons much less 50 seems highly unlikely.

[johnaries]

22. Here's a better hypothetical:

what if Israel nukes Iran's nuclear facilities?

[frogcycle]

24. yeah, you are asking for people to actually declare themselves! nt

[johnaries]

26. Are you insinuating that I'm making insinuations?

:evilgrin:

Seriously, though. If Israel does drop a tactical nuke on Iran as they have now said they might, what will happen? Will the US and the UN publicly condemn them and privately congratulate them like when Israel blew up Iraq's nuclear facility?

Or, since this time there is likely to be radioactive fallout that will spread across other countries, what will happen?

[Dorian Gray]

25. The answer is obvious here

in this hypothetical question. Hopefully, it won't come to that. I would prefer that diplomacy worked now.

[scarletwoman]

28. That's easy! In MY "alternate future history", I am declared Empress of the World and simply forbid

ALL nuclear weapons. And since I am able to do this BEFORE Iran has stockpiled 50 nuclear weapons, the problem is SOLVED!

Hey! Pulling absurd and unrealistic hypotheticals out of your ass is FUN!

Let's see... For just starters, Ahmedinajad is NOT going to be president in 2012 -- his party already lost seats in the most recent election, and lots of Iranians are grumbling about him. The Mullahs may even decide that his big mouth is not such an asset and withdraw their support.

In any case, anyone with even a rudimentary understanding of Iran's political system would know that Ahmedinajad doesn't have the power to call the shots on his own. Sure he can make decrees about dress codes and such as a matter of domestic politics, but he can not unilaterally order the Iranian military into a foreign adventure -- unlike our own mad ruler. He is not a dictator with absolute powers, he is an elected president who can be voted out and might well be in the next 2 years.

Furthermore, your "hypothetical" rests on the absurd assumption that Iran alone, out of all the nuclear-armed non-Western nations on the earth (China, India, Pakistan) is somehow uniquely susceptible to a species of suicidal madness that would inspire them to commit such a folly. Iran is looking for regional influence, not for its for own destruction.

The only nations in the world threatening the use of nuclear weapons against other countries are the U.S. and Israel. They threaten those who cannot fight back. THESE are the monsters that we need to worry about, not the little loudmouth Iranian president.

OUR monsters are the ones planning this "hypothetical exercise" -- only it won't be hypothetical, they'll drop real murder and terror and poison on thousands of innocent human beings.

Fuck that shit. And fuck anyone who tries to rationalize such a monstrous act with bullshit "hypotheticals".

sw

[HuffleClaw]

29. erroneous to say the least

there wouldn't be time for the un to do squat. such an act would provoke a regional wide war.