Of course he's going to escalate. See this thread on why...
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=364&topic_id=3073715&mesg_id=3073715Now then, follow this sequence of events:
Pelosi/Reid issue a very strong letter to Bush saying no escalation (yesterday).
This followed the retiring two Iraq generals saying no escalation--and a whole bunch of hawks (Biden, George Will for chrissakes...)
Ted Kennedy just gave a speech at the National Press Club, today, saying no escalation, and is introducing a resolution today or tomorrow, changing the IWR (obsolete--Saddam gone, no WMDs, no 9/11 connection), to Bush has to bring any escalation to Congress and get it okayed, to get funds for escalation.
The Resolution (the relevant part)
"Prohibition.--Notwithstanding any other provision of law, no Federal funds may be obligated or expended by the United States government to increase the number of United States forces in Iraq above the number for such forces which existed as of January 9, 2007, without a specific authorization from Congress by law for such an increase."
(Kennedy's brilliant speech and link to full text of Resolution)
http://www.tpmmuckraker.com/archives/002307.phpSo here's the formulation of the issue: the bifurcating of Iraq funding into escalation money vs. current levels money.
Kennedy's resolution passes. (I don't think he would be introducing it this early, if they didn't have the votes.) The House passes a similar resolution. They send the joint resolution to Bush. He says fuck off. He escalates anyway, dipping into other budgets or slush funds--in his immensely unaccountable finances. Congress has meanwhile sent the joint Resolution to budget committees to sort out escalation funds from current level funds. Pelosi/Reid send Bush a second letter, asking why he's escalating when they told him not to, and what funds is he using for escalation?--and accompanies the letter with subpoenas for financial records. Bush again says fuck off. Waxman and Conyers introduce a bill of impeachment.
Thus the issue is joined (as Howard Baker said in the Watergate hearings). The issue is the all-important "balance of powers" and Congress' exclusive powers to, a) declare war, and b) fund war.
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So, no, they can't actively go over to the White House and prevent Bush/Cheney from giving orders to the military, to send more troops. (And where the military is going to find more troops, I don't know.) But they CAN bring the Constitutional crisis that has to happen here to a head, and quickly. And that appears to be what they're doing. If Bush/Cheney directly defy Congress' war and war funding powers, and rightful subpoena power, they are toast. We will have a REAL TIME violation of the Constitution, that doesn't involve murky records and secrets, and all their long list of past crimes. Gauntlet thrown. Happening NOW. Even the most retro Bushite Congressmen might get on board. I noticed Feingold getting on Bush on the most recent "signing statement," too. This IS the issue; Congress's power, and the "balance of powers." And I think they're going for it. Now.
Bush could back down. But I don't know if he has the power to. He is being run by the oil giants, it seems--likely through Cheney. (See that first article above. It's about the PENDING oil contracts in Iraq. They need to keep control of this Iraq government until they are signed, which is imminent. The writer says that's what the "surge" is for--to get the contracts signed.)