Things are about to get super-ugly in Iraq: Maliki gives al-Sadr ultimatum to disarm.

[originalpckelly]

"Iraq PM Tells Shiite Militias to Give Up

BAGHDAD, Iraq (AP) - Iraq's prime minister has told Shiite militiamen to surrender their arms or face an all-out assault by U.S.-backed Iraqi forces, senior Iraqi officials said Wednesday, as President Bush said he will commit an additional 21,500 American combat troops to the war.

Under pressure from the U.S., Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki has agreed to crack down on fighters controlled by his most powerful political ally, Muqtada al-Sadr, a radical Shiite cleric, according to officials. Previously, al-Maliki had resisted the move.

***SNIP***

The militia has more fighters, weapons and sophistication today than it did in 2004, when it battled U.S. forces to a standstill in two strongholds, the Shiite holy city of Najaf and Sadr City, Baghdad's sprawling Shiite slum.

***SNIP***

Sunni militants, meanwhile, have put up fierce resistance in the five days since al-Maliki announced his new security initiative for Baghdad."

http://www.guardian.co.uk/worldlatest/story/0,,-6336676,00.html

OH MY GOD!

It's about to get really ugly if al-Sadr decides (as he probably will) to fight it out and keep his army. He may even launch a coup. Saddam's chaotic execution was the prime example of al-Sadr's great power and infiltration of the Iraqi government. I don't think people really are prepared for the possible bloodshed in the next few days.

[La_Fourmi_Rouge]

1. al-Sadr has more troops than the US!

They know the streets, have serious firepower, and time is on their side. Maliki will fall before the 20,000 troops get there.

[originalpckelly]

4. I think we need to appreciate something...

this is al-Sadr's territory. He's a thug, it's not logical to expect him to simply give up his arms, unless he's going to get something even better.

[madeline_con]

2. Or else what? n/t

[bemildred]

3. Or what?

That is the question. Al Sadr can ignore them, as he has in the past, and there is nothing they can do to him if he does. This is all show-biz.

[originalpckelly]

6. No, that's the thing. The troops are going to disarm him...

and the other troops on our side already there will get into any battle with Sadr. Their rules of engagement appear to have been changed by Bush, this is what he wants. This is the plan, to take on al-Sadr.

Americans may be going into a complete bloodbath, because all of our technological advantage may very well be wiped away by their knowledge of the territory.

[bemildred]

10. No they won't.

They have been trying to "disarm" al Sadr for some time now, without any meaningful result. Bush can throw down the gauntlet, again, but al Sadr has no reason to oblige him by picking it up.

[originalpckelly]

14. If you listened, Bush is sending the troops in to go door to door...

and fight the militias.

[bemildred]

16. That isn't new. It hasn't worked in the past.

There is no reason whatsoever to think it will play out differently now.

[StrictlyRockers]

5. Holy crap! Our boys are walking into a bloodbath vs a very determined opponent.

The supply lines are 400 miles long. Encirclement is a threat.

They had an opportunity to disarm al Sadr three years ago when he was not such a huge threat. Now it is going to be very difficult. This is incompetence on a grand scale that will lead to hundreds of American dead. There is no good option, and it is all Bush's fault.

SR

[Disturbed]

7. Al-Sadr could stage a Coup but he will need to do so

within the next two weeks. Malaki doesn't have the support of most Iraqis. Al Sadr may have the support of al Sistani. If that is the case and al Sistani backs al Sadr, the Shiites will back al Sadr. This could be a real turning point. Al Sadr may even forge a peace with the Sunnis and then call for all Occupiers in Iraq to leave post haste.

[originalpckelly]

8. Oh my.

:cry:

Yeah, that's not going to happen if Sadr takes control. He will annihilate the Sunnis.

[GreenZoneLT]

26. Put down the crack pipe

The Sunni resistance hates Sadr a lot worse than they hate us, and vice versa. They've got one peace proposal for him, and it's a 7.62mm one. Some of Sadr's people kidnap Sunnis off the street and drill holes in their heads with power drills; that's a war to the knife there.

Sistani has never supported any armed struggle; he's not that close to Sadr. Sadr, you might not know, is not the most popular Shiite politician; that's Aziz al-Hakim, who has several times more seats in parliament. Sadr just has the biggest militia.

Sadr also has no way of staging a coup; the Saddam execution showed how much he's infiltrated the ministry of interior, but the ministry of defense is a whole different animal and has way more guns.

[roamer65]

9. Shit is about to hit the fan.

Al-Sadr is not about to give up. It will be nothing less than a bloodbath.

[Disturbed]

11. "if Sadr takes control. He will annihilate the Sunnis"

Is there any proof of that? I have read that al Sadr has actually called for the Sunnis to make peace and be part of the Govt. and gain a fair share of power and the wealth of Iraq. Maybe he was conning them when he stated that, maybe not.

[originalpckelly]

13. Yeah, that violence you see is against Sunnis.

[originalpckelly]

15. I believe you mean: The Shi'ite is about to hit the fan.

[aint_no_life_nowhere]

12. Militias are a way of life in Iraq

They prize their guns far more than the NRA, because of the fact those militias used to be their only line of defense against Saddam. They'd feel naked without them, especially in the middle of an ongoing civil war. How can you expect a militia to disarm when there's no reliable police force and only chaos in the streets? If Bush plans to disband Al Sadr's forces, he's going to be declaring war on the Shiites. In that case, he'll need far more than 20,000 men to fight both the Sunnis and the Shiites.

[Strelnikov_]

17. Oh, yea. We have definately turned the corner and found the way forward to the light at the end

of the tunnel.

[originalpckelly]

18. You mean, we're about to see the light?

I don't think that's always a good thing.

[Strelnikov_]

19. To paraphrase Major Kong . . .

"Well, I've been to one world fair, a picnic, and a rodeo, and that's the stupidest thing I ever read on this here site. You sure you got today's propaganda?"

[originalpckelly]

20. Wha?

:shrug:

[AZCat]

He'd be the character played by the loveable...

Slim Pickens in "Dr. Strangelove" - the B-52 pilot.

[originalpckelly]

30. Getcha.

Sorry.

[ellisonz]

21. Jesus Fucking Christ...

I think we're about to witness a full on Battle for Baghdad.

Fuck.

:-(

[frogcycle]

22. probably so

our guys might do better in an all-out war than in this damned police action.

i guess they'll never ferret sadr out without "going in", but if they go in in force...


a big battle is bad, but the death by a thousand cuts is bad

damn

[GreenZoneLT]

25. Yeah, I'm actually mildly optimistic

Sitting around getting shot at sure isn't working. And if it's anything like this Haifa Street operation, most of the actual fighting will be done by the Iraqi Army, with U.S. air and artillery support.

We've always been able to take over any neighborhood we wanted, it's just that there's never been anyone to maintain control after the clearing operation ends. The plan now is to use the Iraqi Army to do it, since the police are just an arm of the militia; we'll see how good that works.

This is also contingent on a) Maliki actually ponying up the three new brigades he's promised and b) Maliki actually having the political will to see through an operation that's going to kill a lot of Shia. Don't hold your breath on either one.

[ellisonz]

27. I think I'm more concerned about the long-term dimensions of political/military power.

In particular, if we really are going to go after Al-Sadr it will further polarize Shiite men of fighting men against the Americans and against the Sunnis. Until now, they have mostly been reacting to Sunni attacks and against the Americans (although that stopped for a period.) If one wanted to put this in terms of Vietnam, we've mostly been fighting the Vietminh/NVA (think Dien Bien Phu/Khe Sanh) up until this date near the DMZ and along the Ho Chi Minh Trail. Now we're going to go after the VC strongholds in the South (think Platoon/Full Metal Jacket), and that provokes the neccessity of a Tet style offensive against the cities and government control. This will be the deciding point for whether or not any political "victory" can be snatched from the jaws of military defeat. If they screw this up, it's over. The head of Afghanistan and Iraq Veterans Against the War Paul Reichoff was on MSNBC tonight and said the following: if one wants to use football analogies this is not a hail mary, this is a draw play in the fourth quarter. Maybe we get lucky, but if we don't, we've lost.

a and b are very incisive though as always.

:yourock:

[Neshanic]

23. Yikes!

[grytpype]

24. Bush wants us to fight BOTH sides in the Iraqi Civil War!

That's like Mexico attacking the Union and the Confederacy to, uh, I don't know.

[HuffleClaw]

28. he's the newest designated asshole alright

and when they kill him... ...they'll simply find another. it will be meaningless of course, just like when the us built up zarqawi to be a boogeyman then snuffed him. i think the real intention here is to fuel the ongoing 'sectarian violence' (heheheh) then withdraw, claiming its 'an iraqi problem'

[ConsAreLiars]

29. Leave it to a third generation mega-wealthy frat boy bully to think that more killing

is the "way forward." A child of privilege who believes that wealth and power means that he can get away with any crime, a psychopath who delights in executions and tormenting animals, a drug and drink-addled poser who thinks, like a five-year-old, that dressing up as a cowboy or soldier is something like being one. Yes, things will get far worse. I am afraid that nothing short of an absolute rejection of this monster and his handlers by the American people -- impeachment, trial, and life sentences of hard time behind bars (I oppose the death penalty, but mass murder on this scale sure tests that belief) -- will get us out of the disaster he has created.

[California Griz]

31. Doesn't everybody get it

This is what Bush wanted all the time. We are on the verge of full scale war in the middle east. I'm not talking just Iran. This escalation was planned from the start. What other reasoning can there be for never securing the borders and stopping the flow of weapons from Iran and Syria. Cut your enemies supply line and the battles half won. We're not talking military genius here we're talking tactics 101. Bush never wanted to stop the insurgency. The tactics used have never had any chance of reducing the fighting. We like to think of Bush as an idiot but I think madman is closer to the truth.