Oil traders about to go under

[formercia]

http://www.wtrg.com/daily/crudeoilprice.html



http://futures.tradingcharts.com/marketquotes/index.php3?market=CL


check out the spread between the market price and the futures price.

If Fearless Leader doesn't start a war soon to drive up prices, his buddies are going to take a bath.

[Octafish]

1. Even amateurs like me thought oil'd be $100 per barrel by now.

Gee. I never took into account the fact that a Democratically controlled Congress could actually make a peace break out.

Wouldn't it be wonderful?

And I thought I'd never hear surf music again.

[formercia]

3. It keeps on dropping

I guess the market didn't think much of his speech.

[formercia]

10. and dropping

over 2 bucks

[formercia]

11. Closed down $2.14 today

Somebody is going to have to eat that.

[Ganja Ninja]

2. How ironic.

The warm winter caused by global warming has caused an oil glut and the oil speculators are getting screwed because of it. How long will it be before Bush proposes some sort of relief act to help out his friends?

[formercia]

8. The minute the planes take off

some gomer on a Dhow in the Persian Gulf is going to start yelling Buy! Buy! into his satellite phone.

[jollyreaper2112]

25. why do you think he's supporting nukes?

A good old-fashioned nuclear winter will get those futures back where they're supposed to be.

[YellowRubberDuckie]

29. Oklahoma Natural Gas, different, I know...

But they're charging their customers over $2 for a surcharge for the warm winter. I shit you not. How that is legal, I will never know.
Duckie

[gatorboy]

4. Just wait until the bombs start dropping in Iran.

[formercia]

6. Yup!

even if they bomb empty desert.

[Uben]

5. These guys don't take big hits

Time to buy! When you start seeing sell-offs, you can bet the big boys will be there to scoop up the bargains and do what is necessary to inflate their profits again. They feed off the fears of small investors and turn them into huge gains. Or not! he he

My feeling is that oil is finding its real value, and $50 a bbl seems to be a comfortable price.
This allows independents to look for oil with a reasonable returm on investment. This should keep prices at the pump in the $2.20-$2.30 range, a place that the public now finds acceptable. And, with the dem oversight, large price swings will be less likely to avoid unwanted investigation.

[formercia]

7. Can't have those unwanted investigations.

I bet they're tearing their hair out trying to figure how to pull it off without being too obvious.

[windbreeze]

9. I would love to see those prices

at the pump...but for some reason, it's going up where I live...it is now .10 more a gallon than it was last week...and that's at $2.79.9 for the cheapest grade...it has NEVER gone down below $2.57.9..even before the election, when the price went down below $2.00 in other places, it stayed high....
wb

[pampango]

21. Sometime I wonder what the Midwest has going for it.

Everytime I visit the east or west coast I see how much more cosmopolitan and interesting life there seems to be.

Now I see that we must specialize in lower gas prices. Our gas topped out just above $3 in the fall of 2005 when oil was at $72 a barrel. Now with oil at $52 or gas is $1.96 to $2.06 depending on the gas station here.

So our gas prices have fallen by about 33%, while oil has dropped by about 28%. Gas prices don't follow oil prices day by day or week by week, but seem to trend the same way in the long run.

[windbreeze]

23. When it was $3

a gallon for you...it was $3.25 for us...for the cheap grade...and it about broke us all...it shouldn't be this expensive now, when oil is $55 a barrel or below...frustrating...
wb

[porphyrian]

12. My heart fucking bleeds for them.

I hope they end up homeless and live agonizingly long lives.

[formercia]

13. They have been hoarding inventory

in anticipation of their new War. Oil they bought at around $70. a barrel.

Boo Hoo.

[pampango]

22. If they are hoarding oil inventory, lowering the supply to the market,

and the price is still going down, they must be getting pretty nervous. That must be a very risky business - make lots of money when you are right, lose lots when you guess wrong.

The traders may have been hoping for some short term relief from Bush's speech Wednesday. If the oil market came to believe that another war was coming, the price of oil would shoot up (pun intended) and the traders would make a fortune. For some reason the oil market did not seem to interpret the speech as incendiary and the price plunged some more yesterday.

[WCGreen]

14. It was, as always, pure speculation fueled by those people

still chasing the double digit returns of Tech Stock craze of the 90's...

[formercia]

15. They figured when the Iranian oil tap shut off

oil would go to over $100 a barrel and they would make a killing.

[WCGreen]

16. They were. I think, counting on the Iraqi oil decrease to cause much more

of a shock to the system...

Also, the damae done to the Gulf factored into the speculative bubble which actually lasted far longer than it should have...

Several old school investors, I mean guys and gals who have been abound longer than 15 minutes on Wall Street, began prediciting that oil would tank and perhaps go as low as $ 40.00 a barrel...

It looks as if once again, the old lions are going to get it right and the young turks who are constantly pushed on the air by CNBC will again, get it wrong...

[Deja Q]

19. Until they kill society.

The trouble is, if the economy breaks, 400 million times the value of it still equals zero.

Who rebuilds a new economy and how?

So it's not going to break. Even the oilmen wouldn't remain so happy for very long.

[sendero]

17. Speculators...

... are a pox on the commodities trading system just like they are on housing.

Speculation in oil has everything to do with the prices going up to begin with. That they are getting their asses handed to them is pure joy for me.

[formercia]

20. Fucking parasites

sucking the lifeblood out of the economy.

Eat shit and die.

[Deja Q]

18. With execs retiring with 400 MILLION DOLLARS, how the HELL can they be going broke?

Either way, it'll go back up. Any investor will tell you prices fluctuate.

I betcha underdeveloped countries just can't afford $60/barrel so they're manipulating it to go down so they can. :crazy:

Tinfoil ends there.

With gas prices back to reasonable levels, more people can put the difference in cost into savings, pay back debts, spend more, whatever else. I'm just happy it's back at a good price.

[IDemo]

24. Oil Price Volatility and Its Consequences

June 16, 2005 --

This from Reuters: Morgan Stanley economist sees oil crash. An excerpt:

"As evidence of weakening demand and ample supply accumulates, the market may panic," Andy Xie, Greater China economist in Hong Kong, said in a report. "I believe it could correct in the most speculative fashion -- it could collapse."

The real irony here is that this analyst may very well be right - for the short term (a few months at most), which is where most commodity speculators traders focus all of their attention. The sad part is that if prices do collapse for a few months or (maybe) a year, the public will be even less inclined to deal with the reality of Peak Oil as its consequences become more intense. Every downward spike (and volatility in general) more firmly entrenches the view that oil prices are mostly about economics and politics and that geological facts have little, if anything to do with it.

The public view of Peak Oil theory may well be that Peak Oil theorists are predicting a steady, sustained rise in prices, not higher volatility with a rising trend line, which is probably closer to what will actually happen. When the fundamentals of a market change and the market gets out of balance (or just plain unhinged, which could be happening in crude oil now), the consequences do not usually play out in a smooth and logical fashion - things almost always become volatile and chaotic.

http://emeraldcitycomments.blogspot.com/2005/06/oil-price-volatility-and-its.html

[jsamuel]

26. I told everyone in august to get out

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=364&topic_id=1904193

BOY! Was I right.

And look at all the awful comments I got like "keep dreaming".

[formercia]

27. The little guy always gets the shaft in the end.

I always liked the movie 'Trading Places'.

[MazeRat7]

28. Oil will be between $55 and $62 bbl for most of 07 - nt

[formercia]

30. $70 per barrel was just too tempting

Yah, sure, we'll cut production when you do.....


http://www.kitco.com/ind/Dorsch/jan102007.html





Is it enough to point the finger of blame for the latest crash in crude oil on the arrival of global warming? Unusually warm weather in Russia, Europe, and the United States, with temperatures reaching the upper 60’s in New York’s financial district, weakened global demand for heating oil by 23% below normal last week, and a 30% drop in heating oil demand is also expected in the days ahead.

Quite often, markets seem designed to fool most people most of the time. Global economic growth and oil demand growth are usually linked, so given expectations for global GDP growth of 4.4% in 2007, it’s logical to expect global demand for crude oil to increase by at least 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) this year. However, that would fall short of 1.8 million bpd of new oil supplies that OPEC expects to come on stream from Angola, Brazil, Canada, Kazakhstan, and Russia this year.

Non-OPEC oil output rose to 51.7 million barrels in the fourth quarter, or 3% higher than a year earlier. OPEC-10 said it would address the net increase in global oil supply in 2007, by lowering its oil output by 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) to 26.3 million bpd in November, and then lower oil output again in February by an additional 500,000 bpd to 25.8 mil bpd. “OPEC’s reduction of 500,000 bpd has been scheduled to come into effect during the winter demand period, while addressing looming market imbalances for 2007,” the cartel said on December 14th.