that were bounced around in 9/06.
We heard "The classified National Intelligence Estimate attributes a more direct role to the Iraq war in fueling radicalism than that presented either in recent White House documents or in a report released Wednesday by the House Intelligence Committee, according to several officials in Washington involved in preparing the assessment or who have read the final document."
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/09/24/world/middleeast/24terror.html?ex=1316750400&en=da252be85d1b39fa&ei=5088&partner=rssnyt&emc=rssThat merely reflected the language--also bandied about--in the NIE summaries that "The Iraq conflict has become the cause celebre for jihadists, breeding a deep resentment of US involvement in the Muslim world and cultivating supporters for the global jihadist movement."
What made less splash in the NYT was the very next sentence: "Should jihadists leaving Iraq perceive themselves, and be perceived, to have failed, we judge fewer fighters will be inspired to carry on the fight."
http://www.dni.gov/press_releases/Declassified_NIE_Key_Judgments.pdf Right there you have one of the things * is plausibly basing his actions on.
They're also playing off of some of UBL's musings about the US in Somalia in '93, taking it at face value. And there's always the "the slow pace of real and sustained economic, social, and political reforms in many Muslim majority nations" (NIE's language) motivating the jihadis even further. (Remember the "they hate us because we support their despotic leaders" meme from 2001 and 2002? That was a motivation in the SoU speech from 2003 for dumping Saddam. This is a permutation of that.)
How to evaluate the premises for all this in a methodical way? Can't, not gonna, don't see a point in it.
But you're right: If it's as serious as all that, they'd be pushing for a larger mobilization. However Rummie's "do it on the cheap" (such as it is) theme continues to echo even after the band stopped playing; and it's politically impossible, so it's pointless to talk about it. Congress would have to activate the Selective Service, and that wasn't going to happen last year, and it's certainly not going to happen this year.