Bush's War in Iran: How Will It Happen? (If It Does)

[smoogatz]

Poll question: Bush's War in Iran: How Will It Happen? (If It Does)

Good morning, DUers--

Please vote for what seems like the most likely Iran war scenario in the coming months. If you choose "other," please explain.

[wakeme2008]

1. I voted for the Poppy, Baker and Scowcroft answer but I think

ROVE should be added to the list. Bush will only go down in the polls if there is any "problems" with attacking Iran.

[smoogatz]

2. Self-kick.

[Sir Jeffrey]

3. Israel will attack Iran...

after we get our strike groups and patriot missle systems in place. Our job initially will be to try to deter Iran from shutting down the Strait of Hormuz and/or fiddling with everyone else's oil shipments in the region. We will fail miserably at that because Iran has had years to prepare for this andHormuz is only about 20 miles across IIRC.

The Mahdi Army will start carrying out waves of insurgent attacks against the US. Casualty rates in Iraq will spike significantly. Hopefully by this time our Congress will have moved to stop the funding for this shit.

I am sure there are other options Iran could use to retaliate, but these two are the most likely from what I have read. Anyting further would have to have CHinese and Russian support. What scares me is that Russian scientists are supposedly assisting Iran's enrichment program. What happens if Russia decides to tell the US, UK, and Israel to go f-ck themselves?

[smoogatz]

6. This does seem like the likely scenario at the moment--

Israel attacks, the US tries to shut down the Iran's ability to retaliate. Emphasis on "tries."

[Sir Jeffrey]

10. I will say that I would have voted for #1 last year...

I think after the election George realized his party would abandon him on Iran if he went that way.

Raw Story had an excellent pdf yesterday from an investment firm that analyzed the possibility of a strike on Iran. It downplayed the possibility of any long-term disruption of MidEast oil shipments once the attack starts. I found this surprising, given how little Iran, China and Russia would be affected vs. how greatly the US, UK, Japan and others would be affected.

If that is the kind of analysis the elites are getting, we're all screwed because they think they can do this with little to no long-term economic consequences.

[Norquist Nemesis]

4. I went with Israel

Condi was checking out the plan and assuring them we've got their backs.

[halobeam]

8. I thought Israel was having second thoughts re: Bush escalation

Israel claiming we are endangering them. Not that I can believe anything I read, just brought it up, wanted your take on that.

[Norquist Nemesis]

13. hmmm... Well, I'd have loved to have been a fly on the wall

http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/813786.html
Olmert, Rice agree to hold three-way summit with Abbas

By Aluf Benn and Amos Harel

Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice agreed yesterday to hold a tripartite summit, with the participation of Palestinian Authority Chairman Mahmoud Abbas, during her next visit to the region.

Olmert and Rice met alone for two hours, while aides of the prime minister briefed officials accompanying the secretary of state of the steps taken by Israel to alleviate the difficulties faced by the Palestinian population in the West Bank.
...

I did a very quick google for Israel making public statements being worried about Bush's plan, but nothing came up. :shrug: As to my opinion...FWIW, it seems to me that Israel's supposed main concern is a "nuclear armed Iran". It appears that they seem to be on the same page as Bush and I really have doubts that they're going to be anything but helpful in taking out sworn enemies. JMVHO :)

[no_hypocrisy]

5. I'll go for something more creative, although improbable but

possible.

How about Al-Quaeda explodes something big in Iraq that belongs both to Iran and our military. Iran blames the U.S. The U.S. blames Iran. Instant war. (Israel is too proactive to take this course of action. Its modus operandi is to fly and drop bombs.)

[itsmesgd]

7. I have to go with a combination of answers

1. The chimp is already trying to provoke the Iranians by small raids along the border the the capture of Iranians from their embassy in Iraq. He has also staged several groups of small numbers of troops along the border to be more or less targets for an Iranian attack of opportunity. These are not special forces but average soldiers.
2. We have so mony assets in the waters near Iran that we are daring Iran to do or say anything. If that doesnt happen in a timely manner, we will see another false flag attack. We know that we have planned such things in the past (like Operation Northwoods and so on).
3. We have also told Isreal to feel free to go right ahead and do whatever is necessary. We have given "friendlies" in the area patriot missle defense batteries. Isreal knows that they will be defended by our military the seccond that they start the war with Iran.

I think that there are too many possibilities that all appear to be getting a good footing in the region. I would be worried with one or two of the scenarios, but as it stands now, any one of a dozen things could trigger a war.
1. A former naval rear admiral appointed to run a war that has been fought so far in the desert and mountains. Unless they have a plan for our nuclear capable carrier fighter groups.
2. More troops being rushed into the area
3. Iranian diplomats being taken hostage by US.
4. Chimp pointing fingers at Iran and Syria and saying that they need to stop provoking us in Iraq.

Please feel free to add you list of worries that you see pointing to a war soon.

[Eugene]

9. Both 1 and 2 much like the Iraq war.

The neocons at AEI are pumping up the case for war against Iran following the same script
that PNAC'ers used to instigate the Iraq war. Israel won't attack Iran because BushCo
will do it first.

[JCMach1]

11. unithinkable for me... I am just a 10 minute air flight from Iran

:(

You want to destabilize the Middle-east go ahead and attack Iran at the behest of the Saudi and Israeli masters... go ahead!

:patriot:

[Tierra_y_Libertad]

12. NPR just did a report on the possibility of Israel attacking Iran.

You can listen to it here. Most of the "officials" agree that Iran poses a serious threat and "threatens" it's neighbors with nuclear arms - something I find incredibly ironic in that Israel has been threatening it's neighbors with nuclear arms for years.

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=6865785

January 16, 2007 · Most Israeli officials agree that an Iranian nuclear weapon would pose a dire threat to the Jewish state's existence. But they are divided on how to respond if U.N. sanctions fail to deter Iran from pursuing its nuclear ambitions.