If the general election match up is Hillary vs. McCain, the expect a strong 3rd party candidate

[Ignacio Upton]

Hillary and McCain are about the least exciting voters that either party could nominate. Hillary won't excite us, and McCain won't excite the Freepers. At the same time, having a pro-war candidate and a pandering-on-the-war candidate could easily open the doors to a 3rd party candidate. No, not Nader, but someone more mainstream.

A few days ago, I predicted that Hagel would bolt from the GOP and run as an Independent. I honestly think he would have a real shot if his opponents are Hillary and McCain. Hillary will NOT be able to attract the people who voted for candidates like Tester or Webb in 2006: people against the war, but center-right on social issues and populist on economic issues. I doubt they'll like McCain too much either because of his support for the war, so Hagel could pass as a viable alternative for larger numbers of voters in states like Virginia or Colorado or Montana (or PA, MI, OH, NH, and FL.)

If the race is Hagel-Hillary-McCain, then expect to see something along these lines:

Hagel (I) 38%
Hillary (D) 32%
McCain (R) 27%
Others 1-2%

[originalpckelly]

1. I predict an 1860 election...

Hillary will win, and it will spark some sort of internal strife.

[Ignacio Upton]

2. Do me a favor, and photoshop Hillary dressed up as Lincoln

I will LMAO if I could get a hole of a picture like that.:D

[aquart]

3. And the money would come from....where?

Is this going to be a Connecticut situation when the Republican Party shafts its own candidate?

Anyway, McCain isn't going to be the Republican so rework your figures.

[papau]

4. The media is McCains main backers - and they may well be able to sell him to the GOP n/t

n/t

[Skidmore]

6. I agree....and

the media is Hillary's big backer. They can't wait to be able to trot out old Monica footage and run Bill's impeachment footage again as background.

[papau]

10. LOL - "Hardball" does not conform to your thesis about Media love of Hill - what

media person or show are you referring to?

In any case - did you catch the Dick Morris request for contributions so that he can make a film that will slime Hillary "better than the Swiftboaters did Kerry"? http://townhall.com/Columnists/RobertDNovak/2007/01/20/pelosi_power_play

I suspect Hill will have to fight the media all the way.

Only because she is female will the sliming by the media be other than all out 24/7/365.

The media wants a GOP WIN -which means remove Hillary - and dirty up Obama and Edwards - so that McCain has a weaker opponent.

At the moment McCain beats Hill by 5% with both in the 40's - but in some polls that widens - and in at least one where the Dem name versus McCain included "Rodham" - Hillary beats McCain.

It is a long time until the first primary - we shall see who holds up to the media tear down.

[napi21]

5. I don't think McCain is going to be the Pub candidate. I think he had a chance

BEFORE he decided to start screaming for more troops in Iraq, but now, coupled with the RW not trusting him, and his terrible tempersure to show it's ugly head on camera, I don't think he stands a chance.

The problem is, Ican't even pick an "oh I guess I could deal with him" candidate out of the Pub group! every time I hear another one announce he's running, he's worse than the ones already running.

[roamer65]

7. Hillary won't be the party nominee.

It will be Gore or Edwards. If Gore runs, he will win it in a landslide.

[Toucano]

8. McCain is DOA and Hagel isn't going to leave the Republican party.

There will be no strong 3rd party candidate because it's going to be cost prohibitive.

This will be the most expensive election ever.

[illinoisprogressive]

9. I will vote indie or stay at home

[roamer65]

11. Don't stay home, vote for other good progressive Dems in the election.

If I can't stand the choice for president, I will vote Democratic on all other races and leave the presidential part of the ballot blank.

[wakeme2008]

12. the other question is will Hillary do a Holy Joe if she does not get the Dem

primary..... :shrug:

[Ignacio Upton]

13. If she doesn't get it, she'll have her people sit on their hands

And not help out the nominee.