IPCC - Warming To Be Far Worse Than Worst-Case Scenarios - Average +3C By 2100 "Extremely Likely"

[hatrack]

Global warming is destined to have a far more destructive and earlier impact than previously estimated, the most authoritative report yet produced on climate change will warn next week.

A draft copy of the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, obtained by The Observer, shows the frequency of devastating storms - like the ones that battered Britain last week - will increase dramatically. Sea levels will rise over the century by around half a metre; snow will disappear from all but the highest mountains; deserts will spread; oceans become acidic, leading to the destruction of coral reefs and atolls; and deadly heatwaves will become more prevalent.

The impact will be catastrophic, forcing hundreds of millions of people to flee their devastated homelands, particularly in tropical, low-lying areas, while creating waves of immigrants whose movements will strain the economies of even the most affluent countries. 'The really chilling thing about the IPCC report is that it is the work of several thousand climate experts who have widely differing views about how greenhouse gases will have their effect. Some think they will have a major impact, others a lesser role. Each paragraph of this report was therefore argued over and scrutinised intensely. Only points that were considered indisputable survived this process. This is a very conservative document - that's what makes it so scary,' said one senior UK climate expert.

EDIT

To date, these changes have caused global temperatures to rise by 0.6C. The most likely outcome of continuing rises in greenhouses gases will be to make the planet a further 3C hotter by 2100, although the report acknowledges that rises of 4.5C to 5C could be experienced. Ice-cap melting, rises in sea levels, flooding, cyclones and storms will be an inevitable consequence. Past assessments by the IPCC have suggested such scenarios are 'likely' to occur this century. Its latest report, based on sophisticated computer models and more detailed observations of snow cover loss, sea level rises and the spread of deserts, is far more robust and confident. Now the panel writes of changes as 'extremely likely' and 'almost certain'.

EDIT

http://observer.guardian.co.uk/uk_news/story/0,,1995348,00.html

[porphyrian]

1. Can we do something about this now? - n/t

[teach1st]

2. K&R

Sadly

[Buzz Clik]

3. This brings up a very, very important point.

A lot of people -- including informed scientists -- are attributing many if not most of the odd changes in weather we are seeing today to anthropogenic sources. However, the IPCC is sticking to its the predictions its been making for quite some time, though the consequeces are being updated.

We must be very careful in how we describe today's events in the context of human-induced changes. If a significant portion of the on-going oddities are natural, you'd hate to be in a position of doing a lot of explaining when the next natural swing is toward cold.

[skids]

6. Not really.

The public has the memory capacity of a housecat.

[Buzz Clik]

7. Are you saying it's okay to exaggerate to call attention to the problem?

[Morgana LaFey]

10. What makes you think there's any exaggeration going on?

I don't see it. Please show us all your examples of exaggeration of the problem.

[Buzz Clik]

12. I discussed this issue in post #3

[Morgana LaFey]

17. No, you made a completely unsuppported assertion that most

scientists -- the ones who KNOW -- don't agree with. That's not a "discussion," it's an unsupported assertion posted as if it were fact.

I'm asking what support you have for what I believe is a completely erroneous assertion.

BTW, I also question your use of the term "odd changes in weather," and portraying that as something climate scientists attribute to global warming. Rather, I think most scientists attribute the growth in EXTREME weather -- and not "odd changes in weather."

I personally don't find too much about the weather these days that is ODD, just excessive and extreme. I don't think we have any new weather, or new twists on old weather, just an intensifying of the same old weather forms we're all familiar with. There have always been extreme episodes of weather, there are just more OF them and that's not "odd" at all if you consider the FACT of global warming.

[johnaries]

14. " a lot of people - including informed scientists" are paid by Exxon-

Mobil.

http://www.google.com/search?sourceid=navclient&ie=UTF-8&rls=GWYA,GWYA:2005-19,GWYA:en&q=exxon+mobil+global+warming

[Dead_Parrot]

16. Do you have any evidence

that a significant portion of the causes are natural? Or are just adding more hot air?

[Ilsa]

4. El Nino is giving us a cold winter, which I like, but it is far worse

of a winter in the mid US, north of me. The cold weather is welcome where I live in south texas, but I feel really sorry for all the folks who have died from the ice storm in accidents and freezing to death, and those who are without electricity.

I am dreading the warm-up temperatures overall as it gets so freaking hot here. I am beginning to wonder if we will eventually be living on seaside property here, forty miles inland.

[Richard Steele]

5. "This is a very conservative document - that's what makes it so scary"

Recommended.

[rman]

8. Most likely long before then,

there will be serious problems with the seasons, flooding, drought, etc - changing the locations were mass agriculture is possible, flooding harbors and coastal areas, causing famine and mass migrations.

[leftchick]

9. However, there is still hope

I hope :(

<snip>

However, there is still hope, said Peter Cox of Exeter University. 'We are like alcoholics who have got as far as admitting there is a problem. It is a start. Now we have got to start drying out - which means reducing our carbon output.'

[charlie]

11. I once read

that the deviance from the average during the Year Without a Summer was 1.8C degrees. Pretty far reaching effects from such a small variance.

[nam78_two]

13. K&R :-/

But yay because Hatrack is posting in GD :bounce:

[Uncle Joe]

15. Thanks for the post hatrack

Kicked and recommended