The February 2006 Hurricane/Tropical Storm forecast: Worst than 2005!

[Up2Late]

PLEASE Note: I said the FORECAST is worst, that does NOT mean that we will break all or most of the records that were set in 2005! Directly below is a very short piece of the 4 page report from TSR, which was even more accurate that Dr. Grey in 2005.

What I posted below is from the pdf's and is a bit hard to read, the full pdf reports are at the links below and are much clearer and easy to read.

2006 Forecast:

Atlantic ACE Index and System Numbers in 2006

TSR Forecast (±FE) 2006 172 (±53)
Intense Hurricanes/Hurricanes /Tropical Storms
-----4.1 (±1.7) / 9.1 (±2.9) / 16.4 (±4.5)
56yr Climate Norm (±SD) 1950-2005 102 (±61) 2.7(±2.0) 6.2 (±2.6) 10.3 (±4.0)
Forecast Skill at this Lead 1996-2005 36% 22% 20% 15%

2005 Forecast:

Atlantic ACE Index and System Numbers in 2005

---------------ACE Index/TSR Forecast (±FE) 2005 151(±53)
Intense Hurricanes/Hurricanes /Tropical Storms
------3.5 (±1.6) / 7.7 (±2.3) / 13.6 (±3.3)
54yr Climate Norm (±SD) 1950-2004 98 (±57) 2.6 (±1.8) 6.0 (±2.4) 9.9 (±3.3)
Forecast Skill at this Lead 1985-2004 27% 23% 17% 14%


USA Landfalling ACE Index and Numbers in 2006

-------------------ACE Index-------Hurricanes---Tropical Storms
TSR Forecast (±FE) 2006 4.5 (±1.9) 2.4 (±1.5) 5.2 (±2.0)
56yr Climate Norm (±SD) 1950-2005 2.5 (±2.2) 1.5 (±1.3) 3.1 (±2.0)
Forecast Skill at this Lead 1996-2005 37% 22% 20%

USA Landfalling ACE Index and Numbers in 2005

------------------ACE Index------Hurricanes-----Tropical Storms
TSR Forecast (±FE) 2005 3.5 (±1.9) 2.0 (±1.6) 4.2 (±2.2)
Average (±SD) 1950-2004 2.3 (±2.1) 1.5 (±1.3) 3.1 (±2.0)
Forecast Skill at this Lead 1985-2004 17% 12% 14%


Note: Most of the links below are "Adobe Acrobat Reader (pdf) files: <http://tsr.mssl.ucl.ac.uk/docs/TSRATL2005Verification.pdf>

Here's a link to that report: <http://tsr.mssl.ucl.ac.uk/docs/TSRATL2005Verification.pdf>

2006 February Forecast: <http://tsr.mssl.ucl.ac.uk/docs/TSRATLForecastFeb2006.pdf>

2005 February Forecast: <http://tsr.mssl.ucl.ac.uk/docs/TSRATLForecastFeb2005.pdf>

2006 and Past Season Data:
<http://tsr.mssl.ucl.ac.uk/for_hurr.html>

Current Forecasts:
<http://tsr.mssl.ucl.ac.uk/forecasts.html>

I'll try to answer any questions you have the best I can.

[bullimiami]

1. damn. we still havent finished cleaning up from last year.

[Up2Late]

2. Sorry about the bad news, you still have 3 1/2 months...

...until the official start of season.

[xkenx]

3. Much too far out to be able to forecast 2006

In fact, the odds heavily favor something more normal or below normal for a hurricane season.

[Up2Late]

5. I'm comparing last years February forecast with this years February...

...forcast. You can ever compare 2004 or earlier if you'd like. If you did, you would find that computer modeling this site uses, has been getting more and more accurate over the years.

These forecasts have a margin of error specified and here it is in plain language:

2006

There is an 87% probability that the 2006 Atlantic hurricane season ACE index will be above average
(defined as an ACE index value in the upper tercile historically (>113)), a 11% likelihood it will be nearnormal
(defined as an ACE index value in the middle tercile historically (67 to 113) and only a 2% chance
it will be below-normal (defined as an ACE index value in the lower tercile historically (<67)). The 56-
year period 1950-2005 is used for climatology.

2005
There is a 76% probability that the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season ACE index will be above average
(defined as an ACE index value in the upper tercile historically (>113)), a 18% likelihood it will be nearnormal
(defined as an ACE index value in the middle tercile historically (67 to 113) and only a 6% chance
it will be below-normal (defined as an ACE index value in the lower tercile historically (<67)). The 55-
year period 1950-2004 is used for climatology.

[xkenx]

9. I still claim it's too early to predict. Here's why.

The past two hurricane seasons were marked by the Bermuda high sitting farther south and west than normal and tropical Atlantic water temperatures above average. This contributed to hurricane tracks being diverted south of their normal tracks and higher intensities. The world weather patterns which cause this are unpredictable, and can change quickly (or not). For example, 2 months ago was all this commentary about a developing La Nina condition (well below normal water temps. in the equatorial eastern Pacific) and what that would mean. Well, those waters have returned to normal. I still say the odds favor a return of the Bermuda High to its normal position, which is why it is so rare to see hurricanes strike from Barbados on south and for Florida to have so many hurricanes.

[Up2Late]

11. Well I'll take the 87% over your 2% chance any day...

...and for the record, I never heard any of this La Niña talk you speak of (and I follow the weather fairly closely), but if that is true, that would bolster the "Higher than Average" prediction.

It's El Niño that causes the decrease in West Atlantic Hurricane activity, not La Niña, which causes more, or at least that is the pattern of the last 20 years.

<http://www.elnino.noaa.gov/>

<http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/elnino/la-nina-story.html>

<http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/elnino/el-nino-story.html>

[xkenx]

14. Wow! 87% to 2% !!! I lose bigtime! Do you have some agenda

in being so adamant about the severity of the 2006 hurricane season? If you carefully read my previous post, you'll see that I note that the developing LaNina failed to further develop, and the equatorial Pacific reversed to normal. Just an illustration of how quickly atmospheric/oceanic conditions can change (or not). Any conditions which cause forecasters to predict one thing 6 months out can change significantly between now and then. The extremes don't repeat very often, so odds favor reversion to the mean. Anyone making strong predictions NOW will be the ones to shout "I predicted this," if it happens, and will be silent if their predictions didn't occur. Dr. Gray had a couple good years a few years ago, everyone waited with eagerness for his next prediction, then he was way off a couple years.
For anyone interested, here is a website which shows worldwide sea temperatures and anomalies:
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/public/

[Up2Late]

15. "...Do you have some agenda?" Yes! My agenda is to warn people here...

...who will be effected by this forecast!

And NO, it's not "6 months out...," This is the Middle of February! Hurricane Season starts JUNE 1, 2006! That 3 1/2 months, which is not much time, considering last year's storms started earlier that normal, and the Army Corp and the Federal Government are still arguing over the dollars they PLAN to spend to fix the storm protections that were destroyed last season.

What's your agenda? Do you work for this "Plan for the best, and lie about the rest" Federal Government? You seem to have an anti-Scientific Agenda! I'm not talking about Odds or games of Chance, I'm talking about the still developing Science of Climatology and Tropical Storm Prediction.

I've read all your posts, and you said nothing about "...the developing LaNina failed to further develop..." If anyone's not reading what is written or linked to, it's you.

As I wrote (and linked to) above, the La Nina would have made the problem even worst, so it's a good thing it didn't develop, but I see no evidence that it was EVER developing, so anyone who said it was, or reported it was, was being totally irresponsible.

If you go to the links I provided above that linked to NOAA's El Nino info pages, you can watch several computer animations from ALL of the El Nino and La Nina events from the last 25 years.

I'm NOT "Predicting" anything! I'm simply REPORTING to my friends here, who will be effected by this issue, what the Climatologists and their Computer data, that I have learned to trust over the last several years, are forecasting for the June 1, 2006 to November 30, 2006 Hurricane season.

This is the last time I'm going to reply to you, as I've met many people here, just like you, that seem to get their kicks out of wasting my time. If you go to the links I previously provided, maybe you will learn something, but spending any more time trying to persuade you is just pointless.

[xkenx]

16. O.K., let's assume you are absolutely correct

and you have given fair warning about the upcoming hurricane season. As in every hurricane season, people who live in areas which could be affected, should make adequate preparations in advance. This would be everyone living on or near the coast on the Atlantic coast from New England to Florida and the Gulf coast from Florida to Texas, as well as the entire Caribbean basin. So what's new? The details of which area/cities/coastline will be struck by a particular hurricane are not known until 1-3 days before, and sometimes not until it happens. Witness (Charlie, I think), the 2004 hurricane which was predicted to strike the Tampa Bay area until, in the last few hours before landfall, it veered off to the east and slammed Punta Gorda, an event not predicted. If it would have veered a couple hours earlier, it would have been Naples in the eye. Some relatively inactive years have, nevertheless, had a major hurricane or two strike with major damage, while some active years have seen most hurricanes recurve harmlessly out to sea. And everything in between. Hurricanes are incredibly unpredictable, both seasonally and individually. People who live in hurricane-prone areas might want to reconsider whether they want to continue to live there, take out additional insurance, live away from potential flood zones, live in construction designed to withstand most hurricane winds, etc. Maybe that's the most useful thing to take away from this discussion. And the Feds. should pick competent people to run agencies like FEMA as Bill Clinton did, so that the people who are affected by these disasters can be helped.

BTW, I actually have a scientific background, have never worked for the Feds., and would never in any way be associated with the Bush or similar regime.

[pitohui]

12. the odds similar to 2005 actually, where you get yr numbers?

the feb. 2005 forecast was admitted to be a little on the low side, they were being conservative, however, it was re-adjusted closer to the actual 2005 tropical season, if i recall correctly, gray actually released a new prediction scaling up after the season had already begun

for feb. 2006 we have the advantage of hindsight and can see that some of the predictions maybe thought a little wild at feb 2005 did indeed come to pass because of the high water temperature in the gulf

everything i've heard is that 2006 has abt the same conditions as 2005 and therefore the forecast should be similar

i have not seen a single report suggesting that 2006 will be normal or below normal and would be interested in a cite or link

[Crunchy Frog]

4. We should start placing bets

as to how far in the Greek alphabet we'll get this year. I wonder what happens when the Greek alphabet gets used up.

[Up2Late]

6. I bet they are already taking bet on something like that in Vegas

My bet is Beta, at most Theta :P

<http://www.mathacademy.com/pr/prime/articles/greek/index.asp>

[Radio_Lady]

18. Crunchy Frog, maybe they'll use the Cyrillic (Russian) alphabet !

That would be fun, wouldn't it?

http://www.friends-partners.org/oldfriends/language/russian-alphabet.html

In peace,

Radio_Lady

[Texacrat]

7. I don't doubt it

They said the same thing last year and it turned out they were right.

[Up2Late]

8. kick n/t

:kick:

[Nikki Stone 1]

10. Let's hope DHS gets out of FEMA's way and lets the agency do its job

Somebody tie Chertoff to a chair.

[ChipsAhoy]

13. I also heard it will be worse.

There was an article in our local paper a few months back that said it will certainly be worse than last year. That's pretty damn scary!

[Up2Late]

17. kick n/t

:kick: