Peak oil article on slashdot. December 16, 2005 was the day?

[lectrobyte]

In the January 2004 Current Events on this web site, I predicted that world oil production would peak on Thanksgiving Day, November 24, 2005. In hindsight, that prediction was in error by three weeks. An update using the 2005 data shows that we passed the peak on December 16, 2005.

http://www.princeton.edu/hubbert/current-events.html

[Earth_First]

1. Interesting...n/t

[Justsayin]

2. Peak oil is a..

LIE!

[Mind_your_head]

4. Thanks for offering all of those facts

:eyes:

[lectrobyte]

5. Can you elaborate on that? I don't pretend to have all the statistics,

but I can only assume there's only so much under there to be cheaply pumped out.

[Justsayin]

12. here is a link.

http://www.prisonplanet.com/articles/april2005/120405peakoilscam.htm

[Solon]

14. Interesting, from the link:

About Nick Begich

Dr. Nick Begich is the eldest son of the late United States Congressman from Alaska, Nick Begich Sr., and political activist Pegge Begich. He is well known in Alaska for his own political activities. He was twice elected President of both the Alaska Federation of Teachers and the Anchorage Council of Education.

He has been pursuing independent research in the sciences and politics for most of his adult life. Begich received his doctorate in traditional medicine from The Open International University for Complementary Medicines in November 1994.

Begich has served as an expert witness and speaker before the European Parliament. He has spoken on various issues for groups representing citizen concerns, statesmen and elected officials, scientists and others.

Emphasis is mine of course, but the interesting thing is that he is not a Geophysicist, a Geologist, nor is he even an expert in the scientific method, as mentioned in these links:

http://www.psitalk.com/begich.html

http://www.haarp.net/

And now onto his own website:

http://www.earthpulse.com/

OK, this guy has less than no credibility, he is about as believable as Ms. Cleo.

[lectrobyte]

15. My old buddy Alex. Not the most credible source, but he is

usually entertaining.

[Justsayin]

18. Let me remind you who

is the President of the United States. There is some crediblity for you.:eyes:

[MadAsHellNewYorker]

10. so the idea that demand for a finite resource will exceed supply is BS?

:shrug:

[Justsayin]

11. finite resource

That is where the lie is.

[Solon]

13. So the second law of thermodynamics is wrong?

After all, the oil in the ground is a part of a CLOSED system.

[Justsayin]

16. here is another link.

http://educate-yourself.org/cn/mcgowanpeakoilandclubofrome14mar05.shtml
------
"Very interesting," you say, "but what does any of this have to do with 'Peak Oil'?" Glad you asked. Coal is, you see, a member of the same hydrocarbon family as oil and natural gas, and it is, like gas and oil, claimed to be a 'fossil fuel' created in finite, non-renewable quantities at a specific time in the earth's history (when the stars were, I'm guessing, in the proper alignment). And yet this allegedly precious and limited resource has been burning off at the rate of millions of tons per year, year in and year out, for at least a million years, and probably much longer.
-----
Personally I think the war on Iraq is to stop the flow and increase the price of oil.:tinfoilhat:

[Solon]

19. This guy seems to lack basic understanding of geology and palentology...

First, Coal has not been "burning off" for millions of years, for a 150 yes, but not much longer than that. Forests, on the other hand, HAVE been burning off for millions of years, but they are LIVING, not DEAD organisms that survive, and indeed thrive in such conditions. As far as I'm aware of, coal, like oil and NG is formed in specific porous rocks from dead organisms(mostly algae and smaller creatures) in shallow seas. It takes a specific chemical reactions to make the complex hydrocarbon chains that are present in such fossil fuels, this is not Methane we are talking about, which is a much simpler hydrocarbon that can be formed in abiotic ways, look at Titan for proof of that. These complex hydrocarbon chains can ONLY be created by a COMBINATION of organic metabolism and geologic processes.

Besides which, even in the event that 150 years of established, peer reviewed science is wrong, it wouldn't matter. What does matter is the fact that the largest single field in the world(Ghawar) pumps out almost as much water as oil, that many fields in the US are exhausted and closing up shop. There is no evidence that states that Oil, regardless of orgin, isn't formed over millions of years of geologic time, and therefore isn't renewable within the Earth on time scales that matter to us Humans.

[MadHound]

20. Peak Oil isn't about us running completely out of oil

Though oil reserves are indeed finite. No, Peak Oil is about us running out of economically viable oil. And yes indeed, that economically viable oil is running out. That is what the oil shocks of the seventies were all about, the economically viable oil in the US ran out. Sure, we could go up to ANWR, but why? The oil would be very expensive to get, and the reserves there would only last a couple of years at most.

Now the same thing is happening the world over. The five large fields in Saudi Arabia(who has the leading amount of oil in the world) had their production peak in the mid seventies. Their largest oil field, Ghawar(which has 12% of the worlds oil reserves) is running dry in the northern part. In the southern part of Ghawar, twice as much seawater is being pumped into the ground as the volume of oil that is pushed up. Think about it, the backbone of the Saudi oil industry is losing steam, and we have nothing to fall back on. Oil sands in Canada? A goddamn pipe dream friend, for it takes nearly as much energy to extract that oil as what energy you get out. The same with other projects, like extracting oil from waste tires and plastics.

Then there is the matter of demand. The two largest countries in the world, China and India, are now becoming quickly industrialized, and their demand for oil is going up. What a situation we're in, higher demand, and falling supply. Guess what that means? Yep, higher prices for everybody. Peak Oil, the end of economical oil.

Look, if you don't want to believe it, fine. But it is something that is real, and is going to greatly effect us. And the sooner we all prepare for it, the better off we'll all be. Our government certainly isn't going to do a damn thing about it except run this country right over the cliff. Thus it is up to you and I to do for ourselves. So if you don't believe it, great, don't prepare. I on the other hand am already preparing, what with a 100mpg motorcycle, an external wood furnace, and soon to have wind turbine, solar panels, and set up to make biodiesel, along with growing my own food. And you know what, even if it all turns out to be a fantasy, I will still be saving money, and decreasing the amount of pollution, and the size of the footprint I leave on this earth. That in and of itself is a goal worth attaining.

So don't believe in Peak Oil, don't believe the numerous scientists and oil experts(of which my uncle is one). Just go blindly along with the crowd, right over that cliff. But when the shit hits the fan, don't come crying to me because you didn't think it would happen, and thus didn't prepare. I've got many other people in line ahead of you that I will need to help first.

[phantom power]

3. Marking it down to the day is a sort of futile exercise...

except maybe as a rhetorical tool. Nobody knows the world's supply of oil to 4 significant figures. However I think the larger point, that we may already have hit peak, or will in the next few years, is completely valid.

[lectrobyte]

6. Good point. I was just surprised to see it referred to there among

all the techie articles.

[phantom power]

8. Books like "The Long Emergency" are making it a popular meme.

Regrettably, nobody in actual power is taking it very seriously.

[jsamuel]

7. Exxon/Mobil's new slogan: "Peak oil is raising your prices, not us."

Whether we believe them or not... :shrug:

[JohnyCanuck]

9. More a long plateau than a peak

The Long Plateau of Peak Oil

By Tom Standing

Oil's peak will be signaled by a decade-long plateau in non-OPEC member production


When might the peak of world oil production arrive, and what might be the peak production rate? These are key questions, with many unknowns but few equations. The most we can do is to make some educated guesses based on past observations.

Global oil production's peak will probably not form a well-defined crest. Instead, it will likely stretch out as an irregular plateau. I will crawl out onto the limb to say that the plateau might begin around 2010 and extend to 2020. The highest sustained level of crude oil production might be 10 million b/d greater than production for 2006, a gain of about 15%.

SNIP

The critical precursor to the peaking of global oil production will be when non-OPEC oil production plateaus. Then OPEC steps to center stage, for they will be the only producers capable of increasing production. Non-OPEC producers, on the other hand, already operate at or near capacity, with no production quotas or ceilings. As long as non-OPEC producers are able to satisfy some of the growing demand for oil, OPEC can be held in check. But as soon as non-OPEC production fails to increase in the face of growing demand, OPEC will have the incremental market to themselves. Then the world oil market will depend completely on a few Persian Gulf members to expand productive capacity.

During 2000 through 2004, non-OPEC production grew at the steady rate of one million b/d per year. It continued to grow by 500,000 b/d during the first 6 months of 2005, but fell by 1.4 million b/d in September as a result of the hurricanes. The International Energy Agency forecasts non-OPEC recovery and growth in 2006 of 1.3 million b/d over 2005. CERA forecasts a similar non-OPEC growth rate through 2010. As monthly oil production data becomes available, we will be able to confirm or refute these forecasts. When non-OPEC production stagnates, expect the price of petroleum products to go up and up.

http://www.evworld.com/view.cfm?section=article&archive=1&storyid=975&first=4194&end=4193

[Solon]

17. Doesn't matter if its a plateau or a downslide...

Basically, with a plateau now, that means the end of economic growth worldwide, that's almost as bad as a downslide. For demand will still be present, but supply will be lacking, and the divide will continue to grow. No economist on the planet will say that we can have a growing economy while using LESS energy resources, that's simply insane.