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"The Federal government began monitoring the storm as a potential hurricane shortly after the NWS announced Tropical Depression Twelve had formed. Federal department and agency Emergency Operation Centers (EOC)—bases used to coordinate and direct response activity—began to closely monitor NWS bulletins and incorporate them into their own updates and situation reports.
The U.S. Northern Command (USNORTHCOM), the military command charged with defending the U.S. homeland and providing military support to civil authorities, also began monitoring the Tropical Depression at its Operations Center in Colorado Springs, Colorado, on August 23.14
August 24, 2005
On Wednesday, August 24, the Tropical Depression strengthened into a Tropical Storm and was given the name Katrina, the eleventh named storm of the 2005 hurricane season.15 The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) activated its Hurricane Liaison Team (HLT), consisting of FEMA, NWS, and State and local officials.The HLT deploys to the National Hurricane Center to assist in the coordination of advisories with Federal, State, and local emergency management agencies, providing forecast updates and technical advice.16 FEMA Region IX was notified to prepare for possible back-up should Mississippi or Georgia be affected. USNORTHCOM also issued a Warning Order for supporting commands to prepare for requests for Department of Defense (DOD) assets should the need arise.17
August 25, 2005
Katrina continued to gain strength throughout the day on Thursday, as it approached the southeastern coast of Florida.18 At 3:30 pm edt, Katrina was upgraded to a Category 1 hurricane and forecast to make landfall in Florida.
Meanwhile, advisories issued by the NWS Tropical Prediction Center (TPC) and the NHC predicted Katrina would turn toward the Alabama-Florida panhandle area after it crossed Florida and entered the Gulf of Mexico.19 At 6:30pm edt, Hurricane Katrina made landfall in south Florida near the Miami-Dade and Broward County line, with sustained winds of up to 80 miles per hour and dropping as much as 14-16 inches of rain in some regions.20 The Florida landfall resulted in more than a dozen deaths,21 over 1.4 million power outages,22 and pockets of severe flooding. Damage costs in south Florida amounted to just under $2 billion,23 with an estimated $400 million in agricultural losses.24
Gulf Coast States and localities began hurricane preparations on Thursday, August 25, even as the storm approached its first landfall in Florida, by activating their emergency response elements, issuing emergency declarations, pre-positioning response assets, and planning for evacuations and sheltering. Because NWS advisories predicted Katrina would enter the Gulf and make landfall on the Northern Gulf Coast area, Alabama and Mississippi activated their Emergency Operations Centers (EOCs) to coordinate information and their State’s resources for emergency response operations.25
In preparation for Florida landfall, FEMA delivered 100 truckloads of ice to staging areas in Georgia, and thirty-five truckloads of food and seventy trucks of water to Palmetto, Georgia. Also, anticipating a potential second Gulf Coast landfall, FEMA pre-staged over 400 truckloads of ice, more than 500 truckloads of water, and nearly 200 truckloads of food at logistics centers in Alabama, Louisiana, Georgia , Texas, and South Carolina.26 This was the beginning of the pre-staging efforts that increased to the largest pre-positioning of Federal assets in history by the time Hurricane Katrina made its second landfall on August 29, 2005.27 At this time, FEMA placed Rapid Needs Assessment and Emergency Response Teams – Advance Elements (ERT-As) on alert.An ERT-A is “the portion of the Emergency Response Team (ERT) that is the first group deployed to the field to respond to a disaster incident.”28 FEMA also conducted their first video teleconference, a call held each day at noon from August 25 until well after landfall. These video teleconferences helped synchronize Federal, State, and local responders and were a means of defining and coordinating assistance and support needs.29
Numerous private sector entities took action as well. Norfolk Southern Railroad, for example, recognized the potential impact of the loss of certain key bridges and pre-staged repair barges in order to be able to move in quickly to make repairs after the hurricane made landfall.The Cargill Corporation, an agricultural products and services company, also pre-positioned freighters offshore so that it could continue shipping grain internationally immediately after landfall.
Katrina Enters The Gulf Of Mexico August 26, 2005
Katrina briefly weakened to a Tropical Storm as it passed over Florida in the early hours of Friday, August 26, but by 5:00am edt, the NHC reported that the storm had once again strengthened to a Category 1 hurricane.30 The hurricane continued moving further west, intensifying over the warm waters of the Gulf, rather than north toward the Alabama-Florida panhandle area as NWS had originally predicted.31 This westward direction enabled the storm to strengthen first to a Category 1 and then intensify to a Category 2 hurricane over the course of the day.
In the afternoon of August 26, the NHC released a track forecasting the eye of Hurricane Katrina would pass just east of New Orleans on Monday, August 29.32 This forecast and all subsequent NHC forecasts projected Hurricane Katrina would make its second landfall as a Category 4 or 5 storm along the Gulf Coast, in the Mississippi-Louisiana region.33 The Center also forecasted that the accompanying coastal storm surge would cause flooding fifteen to twenty feet above normal tide levels where the eye of the hurricane would make landfall.34 National Weather Service Director Johnson later testified before Congress that “forecasts of where Katrina would go were more accurate than usual, with all of the forecast tracks during the last forty-eight hours lining up almost directly on top of the actual track.”35 The last NHC Hurricane Katrina forecast on Friday, August 26, as the storm intensified in the Gulf of Mexico, gave Federal, State, local, and private sector officials, in hindsight, approximately fifty-six hours advance notice that the hurricane would make landfall near the City of New Orleans.36
Preparations took on a greater urgency on Friday, August 26, due to Hurricane Katrina’s continuing intensification and west-southwest track from Florida into the Gulf of Mexico. Louisiana Governor Kathleen Blanco and Mississippi Governor Haley Barbour declared states of emergency for their respective States.37 Gulf Coast States and localities expanded their EOC staffing and operations schedules in anticipation of Hurricane Katrina.38 The Alabama, Louisiana, and Mississippi State EOCs soon were activated to their highest levels.39
State agencies began putting their response plans into action.The Louisiana State Police notified personnel assigned to the Traffic Control Center that they should report to the State EOC the following day, at 6:00 am cdt, to prepare for emergency response operations.40 The Louisiana National Guard began mobilizing 2,000 personnel while the Joint Forces headquarters-Louisiana National Guard activated its Joint Operations Center (JOC) at Jackson Barracks in New Orleans to coordinate their emergency response operations.41 Governor Barbour issued an Executive Order that directed Major General Harold Cross, Adjutant General of the Mississippi National Guard, to prepare to use the Mississippi National Guard for disaster relief operations.42 The Mississippi National Guard alerted military police and engineers, activated 750 personnel, and activated its EOC in Jackson.43
Worst Case Scenario A catastrophic hurricane striking Southeast Louisiana has been considered a worst-case scenario that the region and many experts had known and feared for years.Much of Southeast Louisiana is at or below sea level, and experience had shown Gulf Coast hurricanes to be deadly.At the turn of the 20th Century, an unnamed Category 4 hurricane made landfall on September 8, 1900, in Galveston, Texas.With storm surges higher than fifteen feet and winds stronger than 130 mph, over 8,000 people perished - making it the deadliest disaster in American history.44 Sixty-five years later, on September 9, 1965, Hurricane Betsy made its second landfall near Grand Isle, Louisiana, as a strong Category 3 storm. As an omen of things to come, Hurricane Betsy’s storm surge and high winds hit Lake Pontchartrain just north of New Orleans, overtopping levees and flooding the city. Breaching the Florida Avenue levee, flood waters consumed the Lower 9th Ward of New Orleans, drowning many in their attics as they tried to escape.In total, seventy-five people were killed and over 160,000 homes were flooded.45 Only four years later, Hurricane Camille, a Category 5 hurricane, struck the mouth of the Mississippi River on the night of August 17, 1969.Storm surges measuring over twenty-five feet, combined with winds estimated close to 200 mph, caused an estimated 335 deaths, destroyed or damaged 22,008 homes, and injured thousands in Louisiana, Mississippi, and Virginia.46 In the decades that followed, experts attempted to model the likely impact of future hurricanes to improve protection in the Gulf Coast region.47 In 2000, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers’ (USACE) modeled the effects of a slow moving Category 4 or any Category 5 hurricane on the region.48 According to the Corps, New Orleans would be inundated by over twenty feet of water if such a hurricane took a “critical path” towards the city.49 A weaker, slow moving hurricane can be as dangerous as a more powerful, faster moving storm because it can generate as much or more flooding by dropping more rainfall.50 Vice Admiral Conrad C. Lautenbacher, Jr., Undersecretary of Commerce for Oceans and Atmosphere, stated in 2002 that the overtopping of the levees and subsequent flooding of the city could occur during slow moving Category 3, 4 or 5 storms.51 Recognizing that current Federal, State, and local disaster response capabilities overall needed to be enhanced to better address possible effects of catastrophic disasters, FEMA provided funding for a Southeast Louisiana Catastrophic Hurricane Planning Project, which brought together responders and decision makers from all levels of government and the American Red Cross to identify, analyze, and address the overwhelming operational complexities that would be involved in responding to a catastrophic hurricane striking southeast Louisiana.52 "
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