Other Dem candidates who were held up as "inevitable nominees"

[Mayberry Machiavelli]

where the conventional wisdom didn't hold up too well:

-Ted Kennedy (this is what I seem to recall)

-Howard Dean

I don't remember what the buzz factor was on Gary Hart.

[RoyGBiv]

1. Hart was the It boy ...

He was going to win, hands down. People were already talking about what a Hart administration would look like.

[Jack Rabbit]

2. Edmund Muskie (1972)

[Mayberry Machiavelli]

3. Was there an early consensus that he was going to win?

[Rowdyboy]

4. Oh, it was a sure thing...He had it wrapped up in 1976.....

Then his wife was attacked in print and he was so angry and emotional there were tears. That killed him.

Gary Hart was also a lock in 1988 before he challenged the press to catch him in infidelity. Earlier that year, the consensus had been that the nomination was Mario Cuomo's for the taking-all he had to do was run. Sadly, he didn't.

[Mayberry Machiavelli]

5. 76 was Carter/Kennedy was it not? I thought Muskie was 72.

[Rowdyboy]

6. You're right on Muskie, the incident of his.....

crying ws in 1972. Sorry. Carter/Kennedy was in 1980. There really was no front-runner in 1976 that I remember, though Ted Kennedy was hyped as a sure thing if he got in the race.

[Jack Rabbit]

7. 1976 was pretty muxh Carter wire to wire

Anybody would have beat Ford.

[Mayberry Machiavelli]

8. I guess my point is, the conventional wisdom has had a pretty poor record

in early prognostication of Dem nominees. Way below 50 percent, it would seem.