The odds of us attacking Iran? 400%

[Ian_rd]

Prediction market exchange website http://www.intrade.com is setting the odds at an American attack on Iran as 4:1 (that's a 400% chance for those light on the lingo).

Just a few quick facts about Iran:

1. Iran has nearly 4 times the land area of Iraq.
2. Iran has well over double the population of Iraq.
3. The Iranian population is far more loyal to their government than Iraqis ever were to Saddam Hussein.
4. The Iranian population has a far more significant hatred for the United States than pre-war Iraqis.

Think of how things are going in Iraq. Over 2,300 U.S. soldiers are dead. At the very least over 30,000 Iraqis are dead. The U.S. invasion started 3 years ago and the violence and death is only escalating. Iraq had never experienced a suicide bombing before the U.S. invasion, and now it is the greatest terrorist training ground far exceeding Osama Bin Laden's wildest dreams.

And now the Bush Administration might be flirting with the idea of attacking Iran? Imagine the consequences. Imagine the increase in terrorism. Imagine the death wrought on civilians - many of them eventually Americans.

At what point are they no longer irresponsible and reckless? At what point do we call them criminally insane?

Article: http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/prem/200604/bombing-iran

[RagingInMiami]

1. They are criminally insane

This was their plan all along. To set off WW III. The bastards.

[Cronus Protagonist]

8. Ding ding ding - Dubya Dubya 3 is the plan

Only THEN can we have a draft and the people won't revolt.

[Tierra_y_Libertad]

2. Odds of getting our asses kicked in Iran? 100%

Seeing as how the "World's Mightiest Military" can't even handle a wrecked country with no military and opposed only by a "failed insurgency", I sure as hell wouldn't be betting on the US to do other than jump in the swamp and drown.

But, Americans are susceptible to waving flags, stern faced generals on TV, "smart bomb" videos, and politicians happy to send their kids off to kill and die to protect us from the bogeyman.

[ladjf]

4. We haven't even defeated Iraq, a Country that was "down and out"

prior to the invasion.

[NNN0LHI]

16. I am not so sure we have defeated Katrina yet to be quite honest n/t

[ladjf]

18. We most definitely have not. I don't think the Miss. Gulf coast

towns will ever return fully. There is too much of a danger of it happening again and there appears to be no engineering solution to the surge problem.

[ladjf]

3. Where will Bush find the extra $750,000 billion and the extra

300,000 troops? That's going to be a stretch.

Yes, the can bomb the hell out of Iran. But, without an occupying force to enter and take control, that would be a futile and destructive strategy.

[librechik]

15. he'll borrow from our grandchildren

and thay'll use up all the slaves er soldiers that they have now until they're all dead or in chairs, then start delving into whoever is left anywhere (navy, airforce etc) until they're all gone--why? cuz they are under contract and NO WAY will they n=be able to have a draft in an election year.

These people are as the first post said, criminally insane.

[ladjf]

17. It depends on how much more credit we can get from China

and the ME.

[DURHAM D]

5. "We are sorry - in advance" . Time for someone to

setup a website where American citizens can post apologizes ahead of time to the people of Iran.

[ladjf]

6. They are already at the point of being criminally insane. That

is obvious. There has got to be some International body to deal with out of control situations like this.

[On the Road]

7. I Suspect Bush May Simply Bomb Their Nuclear Facilites

like Israel did in 1981. No way he can be crazy enough to try to occupy the whole country.

Note: The 4:1 odds would represent an 80% chance of an attack.

[warrens]

9. 350,000 troops, heavy tanks, attack copters

And lots of other goodies, including lotsa rockets and anti-aircraft missiles.

[TallahasseeGrannie]

10. It seems to me that

the only way to win there would be to completely destroy them.

And there is only one way to do that.

[BadgerKid]

11. WTF is a 400% probability? n/t

[BillZBubb]

12. It's an 80% chance of attack, not 400%.

To calculate probability from the odds, add the two odds side positions, then divide the side you are discussing by that total. 3:2 odds means 3/5=60% probable, or 2/5= 40% not probable.

In this case 4:1 means 4/5 probable, or 80%.

[Radical Activist]

14. Thank you

I'm horrible at math but that was still irritating me.

[Zinfandel]

13. We need to get out in the streets and protest another illegal invasion

attack.

[TheBaldyMan]

19. your odds are just plain wrong, is that 4:1 on, or 4:1 against ?

btw usually I won't post on War vs. Iran topics because I got tired of pointing out all the reasons the US is incapable of launching military action against Iran but this has sunk to a new low on my dumbometer.

[SmokingJacket]

20. It's not the poster's odds; it's that trading site.

Bookmaking was illegal here last I checked. Guess that's why the site's registered in Ireland, even though most of the bets are US-related...

[TheBaldyMan]

22. OK 4:1 on = 80% ; 4:1 against = 20%, don't bet - it's a mug's game

the only guarantee of coming away from Vegas with a small fortune is to go there with a large one.

[Karenina]

21. AT THE VERY LEAST

OVER A MILLION IRAQIS ARE DEAD.