Larry Johnson: Strategy for Victory or Recipe for Disaster?

[kpete]

Strategy for Victory or Recipe for Disaster?
Submitted by davidswanson on Sun, 2006-03-12 14:23. Media
By Larry Johnson

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The preview of what Bush intends to say on Monday at George Washington University suggests that the President is consulting Baghdad Bob rather than deal with reality. Unfortunately, no matter what the President says, the reality of violence in Iraq will continue to fester and the civil war, which has been underway for at least the last 18 months, will intensify. Against this reality will be the tug of war between the politicians in Washington who are eager to drawdown troops before the election and the military commanders, who apparently believe that to withdraw substantial numbers of U.S. forces from Iraq will almost certainly permit the civil war to expand in scale and scope.

There is no easy out. Our best chance of "success" is to shore up the Shiites and try to cultivate the more modern, cosmopolitan elements of that group, while continuing to aid the Kurds in the North. This path is tricky, however, because the Iranians are pursuing a similar strategy with the Shia Iraqis. Some of the more radical Shias--Moqtada al Sadr in particular--are building up their arms caches and are ready to fight if necessary. Their arms and financing are coming from Iran.

Ironically, by strengthening the Iraqi Shias we will weaken our ability to pursue military action against Iran. The Iraqi Shias, for example, have the capability of operating as a 5th column that could disrupt and even cutoff our logistics supply chain, which runs from Kuwait through southern Iraq and up to key U.S. bases, such as Balad.

It is time for George Bush to stop with the upbeat campaign speeches. Iraq is not a problem because of bad public relations. It is a threat because of bad policy, inadequate understanding of the cultural and religious dynamics that drive the county, and a failure to clearly define what U.S. interest (or interests) we are pursuing there. The good news is that our current Ambassador and military leadership in Iraq understand the peril. It is time for the President to wake up and catch up.

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