Censure Vote Breakdown

[mb7588a]

It takes 51 votes to pass...

Assuming loyal opposition (Huge assumption, I know...):
There is 44 Democrats and one Independent = 45 yes votes.


Who are the other six? Some possibilities:

Allen (Chance to distance himself before '08, he did some distancing from Bush on MTP yesterday)
Brownback (Chance to distance himself before '08... believes pres. broke the law)
Chafee (Join us, Lincoln, we can be friends!)
Craig (Libertarian-leaning conservative, opposed earlier version of new Patriot Act. Has publicly opposed the wiretapping program)
Collins (Homeland Security and Govt. Affairs Cmte. Chairwoman, has said they should look into wiretapping)
DeWine (Has a huge reelection challenge... Has basically led the Republicans who are against this program)
Graham (Also Grilled Gonzales in Judiciary cmte. hearing)
Hagel (Chance to distance himself before '08, Has expressed discontent with program in Intelligence Committee)
Specter (Has spoken against wiretaps)
Lott (What better way to hit back for his dethroning that still irks him?)
McCain (Believes pres. broke the law...)
Snowe (Has expressed discontent with program in Intelligence Committee)

Any others?


Things to remember:
- Even John Ashcroft had reservations about this program.
- Admins has offered shifting justifications of the program that most agree are crap
- There's a good chance some of those Republicans up there would rather support changing the FISA laws rather than a censure
- We might lose some Dems (Holy Joe, Ben Nelson, ?)
- Senators take an oath:

I do solemnly swear (or affirm) that I will support and defend the Constitution of the United States against all enemies, foreign and domestic; that I will bear true faith and allegiance to the same; that I take this obligation freely, without any mental reservation or purpose of evasion; and that I will well and faithfully discharge the duties of the office on which I am about to enter: So help me God.

[OrangeCountyDemocrat]

1. Thanks For The Effort....

But you're wasting your time. Here's the breakdown:

Perhaps you'll get 35-40 Dems on board. I'd say there's about 10% chance you would have more than 40.

There won't be Any Repubs. Zero! Zilch! NONE!

The sooner we stop living in this fantasy world, where elected leaders have any conviction or conscience....the better.

The vote will be something like 35-65 in favor, assuming it even gets that far.

[bowens43]

4. I think you're being optimistic.

I will be surprised if a dozen Democrats vote for it.

[leftchick]

5. I can only think of about three or four

:(

[OrangeCountyDemocrat]

23. I Was Afraid Of Being Called A Pessimist

You're right though. Probably under 20.

[Cassandra]

7. Having the craveness of repukes...

on the record will be useful; perhaps sooner rather than later. I think it is important for Feingold to try, to show that only Democrats stand up for the rule of law. (Wait...could that be a campaign position for the fall?...)

[Marr]

2. I don't think a censure has a chance of passing.

C'mon- these are Republicans. They're trying to write new laws to make Bush's crimes legal, and the people who report on them criminals themselves. If they had any sense of morality or duty, they'd have displayed it a long time ago.

[wordpix2]

3. don't think we can count on McCain as he's trying to get *'s fundraising

machine on his side for '08 pres election.

[npincus]

6. does Censure take Impeachment off the table?

If it does, then I don't support it.

I heard a Feingold sound bite on CNN... something to the effect of introducing censure to avoid impeachment (not verbatim, but that was the jist).

Sorry, censure insteadof impeachment doesn't cut it- for me. Impeach the bastard.

[jane_pippin]

12. No. From Russ' diary on Kos:

"Congress may consider a range of other actions, including investigations, an independent counsel, or even impeachment. But at a minimum, and as a first step, Congress should censure a president who has so plainly broken the law."

http://senator-russ-feingold.dailykos.com/storyonly/2006/3/13/114144/941

[npincus]

14. oh, thank you.

I've been trying to get that answered.

I think we really may win back Congress in 2006.

[Hissyspit]

30. When censure is rejected, post-Nov Dem Congress can present impeachment

and say "We TRIED to censure and you wouldn't let us."

[Tierra_y_Libertad]

8. I'll be (pleasantly) amazed if it get's 20 yes votes.

I can't imagine any Republican voting for it, and far too few trembling Dems. Tho' I do have high hopes for my Senator Patty Murray who usually has the backbone to actually stand for something that's obviously right - even if it isn't "smart" politics.

[spindrifter]

9. Thanks for the breakdown of votes.

No matter what the real chance of censure is it is vital that a record be made and real pressure be brought on possible aye votes.

[WI_DEM]

10. Not a single Republican will vote to Censure Bush

and probably only half of the dems will.

[Nutmegger]

13. You're probably right

The house of cards will fall yet again.

[Norquist Nemesis]

11. Sadly, It's going to be a party line toe the line thing

Republicans have put it squarely into "playing politics" and will vote against it; then they'll blame Democrats as being un-patriotic, un-supportive of the Commander in Chief (and in a time of WAR!!! *gasp*), and un-resolved over the country's National Security.

If they could find a way to squeeze in a tax and spend or liberal smack they'll do that too.

[alcibiades_mystery]

15. Not even

If more than 28 Dems vote for censure I'll kiss your ass in Macy's window. Seriously.

[Norquist Nemesis]

17. I'm taking a leap of faith and going for 38

45 minus the 7 "gang of 14" Dems.

You're probably correct, though.

[alcibiades_mystery]

22. 38? ROFL...You're mad

If it's over thirty I'll do pirouettes while wearing a mint green tutu in the friggin' town square! 38? :rofl:

[Norquist Nemesis]

32. Of course I'm mad!

Crazy as a loon! The Cons tell me every day on news and talk radio that I'm angry, loony, crazy, rabid, intolerant, unpatriotic, weak, ...did I get them all?

I really thought there would be an organized effort to put pressure on the Senators, especially Democratic Sentors to vote for this resolution. Apparently the call tree didn't get activated or something. They don't lose single thing by voting yes, and gain by showing unity...for once.

oh, well

[bowens43]

18. Don't count on it.

I think very few Democrats are going to support this. It won't be party line, it will be a bi-partisan defeat.

I hope I'm wrong. Party line would make me very happy.

[Norquist Nemesis]

21. boohoo! You're smashing my dream!

*wags finger*

[npincus]

16. I think CNN said Reid was not supporting censure

the MSM keeps telling us "American support B*sh's warrantless wiretap program".

[Norquist Nemesis]

19. Figures!

Somehow it doesn't surprise me one bit. :(

People should be calling him and jamming that phone line. There's an 800 number to do it!!!

[dennis4868]

20. I hate it....

when they call it a program. For all we know Bush is listening in on Dems phone conversation and maybe Kerry's during the 2004 election. If Bush does not want to go to the FISA court even retroactively for a warrant then he must be up to something no good!

[BuyingThyme]

25. If that's true, Reid should not only step down from his leadership post,

but should vacate his seat before being incarcerated.

[Tesha]

33. Why would he? He's only the leader of the "opposition". :-( (NT)

[DancingBear]

24. The spineless wonders voting to censure??

Not a prayer - maybe 10-12 Dems, tops.

Maybe.

If it's a nice day.

And the sun is shining.

(more like 3 or 4, however)

[Me.]

26. Lieberman Vote For Censure?

Don't think so. I'll be surprised if he gets 10 support votes. But hey, you know, everything has to start somewhere and I count this as a nice beginning. Look how long Watergate took to reach it's inevitable conclusion.

[Nutmegger]

27. LMAO!

:rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl:
:rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl:

:rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl:
:rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl:

:rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl:
:rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl:

:rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl:
:rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl:

[chicofaraby]

28. They either support warrantless wiretaps on citizens

or they don't.

The issue is stark and clear.

American voters are watching.

Feingold is brillliant. There are only two choices. What'll it be Senators?

[newyawker99]

34. Hi chicofaraby!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[TechBear_Seattle]

29. Maria Cantwell will vote Nay

I have $10 saying she will vote not to censure. She has a noteable record of supporting the President, after all, Democrat though she may (allegedly) be.

[rodeodance]

31. smart move by Russ F--public vote to hold the Pres. accountable.