I think this is OK because it's a press release and it's supposed to be circulated. Sorry about the formatting of the tables, hopefully you'll get the jist -- which is America has given up on Iraq.
CBS NEWS POLL For Release: Monday, March 13th, 2006 6:30pm ET
IRAQ: THREE YEARS AND COUNTING March 9-12, 2006 President Bush, beginning a series of speeches to shore up support for the war in Iraq, faces a public that believes things are going badly for the U.S. there, is increasingly doubtful of eventual success, and is overwhelmingly convinced that Iraq is now in a civil war. Two-thirds of Americans think the President paints too rosy a picture of events there. It has been nearly three years since the beginning of what was expected to be a shorter engagement, and despite their wishes for troop reductions, most think Americans will continue to be in Iraq at least two more years, and 27% say the war will last another five or more years. Americans cite Iraq as the most important problem facing the U.S. For many, there is a personal connection. 54% have a close friend or relative who has served in Iraq. Half don't think the government is giving troops the resources needed to succeed. The war continues to impact views of the President, whose approval ratings remain at or near all-time lows. LOOKING AHEAD: SUCCESS IN IRAQ? Optimism about eventual U.S. success in Iraq is down to its lowest levels so far, with only half expecting eventual success. Just 15% say the U.S. is very likely to succeed in Iraq, down from 21% in January, while another 36% say success is somewhat likely, down from 42% in January. 47% say it is either not very or not at all likely that the U.S. will achieve success the pessimism has risen sharply from 35% just two months ago. WILL THE U.S. SUCCEED Now Very likely 15% Somewhat likely 36 Not very/not at all likely 47 IN IRAQ? 1/2006 21% 42 35
7/2005 21% 43 35
Prospects for Iraq's democracy look bleak to a majority of Americans. 54% now thinks Iraq will never become a stable democracy. Just 5% think Iraq will be a stable democracy within a year or two and 38% say it will take longer. This stands in stark contrast to the optimism of two years ago. Then, and again after the Iraqi elections in the winter of 2005, most Americans had hopes for democracy in Iraq. WILL IRAQ BECOME A STABLE DEMOCRACY? Now 1/2006 2/2005 Yes, in the next year or two 5% 6% 9% Yes, but will take longer 38 52 55 No, never 54 39 34
12/2003 7% 59 31
Any payoff in the war against terrorism from a democratic success in Iraq is unclear to most Americans. 64% say it will make no difference to U.S. safety from terrorism if Iraq does indeed become a stable democracy. Just 28% say that would make the U.S. safer. However, majorities do say a stable democracy is important to both the economic and security interests of the U.S. IF IRAQ DOES BECOME STABLE DEMOCRACY, U.S. WILL BE... More safe from terrorism 28% Less safe 5 Won't make any difference 64 And only 36% think the U.S. effort in Iraq will lead to greater stability in the broader Middle East. 21% say it will bring less stability; 36% say it will make no difference. These feelings are not much different than they were in the fall of 2003. IRAQ TODAY More than seven in 10 Americans majorities of both Democrats and Republicans say a civil war is currently going on in Iraq among different groups of Iraqis, and another 13% think civil war is likely to break out in the near future. IS THERE A CIVIL WAR GOING ON IN IRAQ NOW? Yes 71% No, but will happen in the future 13 No, won't happen 10 Overall, 57% of Americans say things are going badly for the U.S. in Iraq, while only 40% say things are going well. While this is a slight improvement from two weeks ago, when CBS News polled immediately after an important Shiite mosque in Samarra was bombed and sectarian violence began, for much of the past year a majority has said things are going badly in Iraq. Just over a year ago, in the weeks after elections to select a National Assembly in Iraq, views were more positive: 53% said things were going well for the U.S. After the capture of Saddam Hussein in December 2003, 65% thought things were going well. HOW ARE THINGS IN IRAQ GOING FOR U.S.? Now 2/2006 2/2005 40% 36% 53% 57 62 47
Well Badly
12/2003 65% 33
Today, Americans are likely to say most Iraqis are resentful of the U.S. Only 32% say most of the Iraqi people are grateful to the U.S. for getting rid of Saddam Hussein the lowest number to date while 46% think most Iraqis are resentful of the U.S. for being in Iraq. More Americans thought the Iraqi people were grateful to the U.S. after Saddam Hussein's capture in December 2003, and after the fall of Baghdad in April of that year.
Grateful Resentful Both
HOW ARE MOST IRAQI PEOPLE FEELING RIGHT NOW? Now 4/2004 12/2003 4/2003 32% 38% 48% 53% 46 48 30 26 13 9 13 14
Most Americans - 53% - say neither side is currently winning the war in Iraq. Only 29% say the U.S. is winning, down from 36% in January. Today's views are similar to those shortly after the prison abuse scandal at Abu Ghraib came to light. WHO IS WINNING THE WAR IN IRAQ? Now 1/2006 The United States 29% 36% Iraqi resistance 12 9 Neither side 53 48
5/2004 31% 10 54
41% say the U.S. has made at least some progress in the training of Iraqi troops, but this number has dropped dramatically since January when 54% said progress had been made. Today, a quarter say there has been little or no progress and another 35% are unable to gauge the amount of progress. The public is more optimistic about the progress being made in setting up a stable democratic government in Iraq. About half say there has been at least some progress made toward that. HOW MUCH PROGRESS HAS BEEN MADE IN ...? Training Setting up stable Iraqi Troops democratic gov't Now 1/2006 Now 11% 16% 7% 30 38 41 19 16 25 5 4 5 35 26 22
A lot Some Not much None Don't know U.S. TROOPS TODAY
50% of Americans think the U.S. government is not giving U.S. troops in Iraq enough resources and military equipment to succeed there. There are partisan differences on this question. 61% of Republicans say the U.S. government is providing the troops with all they need, but 62% of Democrats think the troops are not getting enough resources. IS THE GOV'T GIVING U.S. TROOPS ENOUGH RESOURCES TO SUCCEED? Yes 37% No 50 Still, three in four Americans are opposed to reinstating the draft in order to provide soldiers for the Iraq conflict. They are also opposed to reinstating the draft in general.
Favor Oppose
REINSTATING THE MILITARY DRAFT... To provide In the soldiers for Iraq United States 20% 25% 76 68
Americans today, as they have for a while, would like to see troop levels in Iraq lowered, including 29% who want all troops removed now and 30% who want levels decreased. U.S. TROOP LEVELS IN IRAQ SHOULD BE... Now 12/2005 Increased 10% 11% Kept the same 25 24 Decreased 30 32 Remove all troops 29 28
9/2005 10% 26 27 32
But many are skeptical that what they'd like to happen won't actually come to pass. 27% think U.S. troops will remain in Iraq for more than five years, and another 36% think they will be there at least another two to five years from now. Americans have never thought the stay in Iraq would be a very short one, but back in the summer of 2003, when asked how long troops would need to stay, more than four in ten believed troops would be out within two years time. HOW LONG WILL TROOPS HAVE TO STAY? Now 4/2004 Less than one year 10% 8% One to two years 20 27 Two to five years 36 33 More than five years 27 25
7/2003 13% 31 31 18
However, if troops were pulled out of Iraq now, 44% think that would bring more violence, while 42% say there would be about the same amount of violence as there is now. Few think there would be less violence if U.S. troops withdraw. VIOLENCE IN IRAQ IF TROOPS WITHDRAWN Now 12/2005 More violence 44% 46% Less violence 11 12 Same amount 42 38 LOOKING BACK Today, three years after the war began, Americans' belief that it was the right thing to do remains at 41%, the same as last month, and this measure's lowest level of the war. Most Americans continue to believe that going to war was NOT the right thing to do: 54% say so, also the same number as last month.
Right thing Should have stayed out
DID U.S. DO THE RIGHT THING GOING TO WAR WITH IRAQ? Now 2/06 10/05 2/05 10/04 4/04 12/03 41% 41% 41% 46% 53% 47% 63% 54 54 55 50 42 46 31
3/03 69% 25
Support for military action was very high when the war started in the spring of 2003, and remained high through the capture of Saddam Hussein late that year. But by spring 2004, that sentiment had dipped below 50%, weighed down in part by rising U.S. casualties and the Iraqi prisoner abuse controversy. During the 2004 Presidential campaign, as President Bush repeated his case for the Iraq action, belief that war had been the right thing to do rose back to 53% -- only to dip again in 2005. It stayed in the 40% range throughout the past year. As has been the case for nearly the entire course of the war, support today breaks heavily along partisan lines. 71% of Republicans call the war the right thing to have done, while 20% of Democrats agree. Democratic support for the war was once higher: back in December of 2003, soon after the capture of Saddam, about one-third of Democrats called the war the right thing to do. Americans make an even more negative evaluation when asked to weigh the war's costs versus its results. Today, only one-fourth of Americans say the war has been worth the costs, including the loss of American life the lowest measure ever found in this poll. An overwhelming seven in ten say it was not worth it the highest number who have ever said so. HAS THE WAR BEEN WORTH THE COSTS? 2/2006 10/2005 4/2004 29% 31% 34% 63 64 57
Yes No
Now 25% 70
12/2003 42% 47
Even in December 2003, when many more Americans called the war the right thing than do so today, this evaluation was more negative than positive. Half the sample was asked whether the war was worth the costs, while another half was asked whether "removing Saddam Hussein" specifically was worth it. On this question, more 40% - say that it was worth it. Americans have usually assigned higher worth to removing Saddam than to the more general results of the Iraq conflict. But this sentiment, too, has moved lower since the former dictator's capture in December 2003. By spring 2004, at about the one-year anniversary of the war, fewer than half thought his removal, specifically, had been worth it. WAS REMOVING SADDAM WORTH IT? 2/06 10/05 3/04 12/03 41% 34% 47% 54% 53 57 43 37
Yes No
Now 40% 51
5/03 65% 28
A majority still believes some sort of action against Iraq was the right thing to do. But nearly one-quarter of Americans, 22%, would have preferred the U.S. had ousted Saddam from power, and then left Iraq right after that.
35% think the U.S. was right to both remove Saddam and to stay in Iraq to rebuild the country. Four in ten, however, would have preferred not getting involved in Iraq at all. WHAT SHOULD THE U.S. HAVE DONE...? Remove Saddam AND stay to rebuild Iraq Remove Saddam, then left Iraq Never gotten involved in Iraq REASONS FOR WAR Americans hold a wide range of views about the reasons that the Bush Administration decided to go to war in Iraq. Asked to volunteer in their own words what they believe the Administration's motives were, about four in ten Americans cite a reason roughly in keeping with the Administration's stated goals. This includes 21% who say it was to protect the U.S., either generally, or from terrorism or weapons of mass destruction, specifically. Another 9% name Saddam Hussein and his removal, and 7% say it was generally because of, or in retaliation for, the September 11th, 2001 attacks. 3% say it was to either free the Iraqi people or promote democracy, generally. But nearly as many others, most of whom do not think the war in Iraq was the right thing to do and many of whom are Democrats, give more skeptical reasons. 19% say it was to protect U.S. oil interests or make money for U.S. companies, and 11% say it was President Bush's personal goal to finish something his father, George H.W. Bush, had started during the Gulf War of the early 1990's. Another 8% say the action was prodded by others in the Administration, such as Vice-President Dick Cheney or Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld. WHY DID BUSH DECIDE TO GO TO WAR? Protect the U.S. (from terror, WMDs) To remove Saddam Hussein Because of 9/11 Free the Iraqis/promote democracy Protect U.S. oil interests/make money Finish G.H.W. Bush's Gulf War Others in Administration wanted to
35% 22 40
21% 9 7 3 19 11 8
Whatever their view on the U.S.' involvement in Iraq, most Americans say the war has lasted longer than they expected. HAS THE WAR BEEN... Longer than you expected As long as you expected Shorter than you expected
60% 34 4
Americans split over whether they describe themselves as proud of the U.S. action in Iraq. 46% call themselves proud. 48% are not. Most Republicans are proud; most Democrats are not. But in the eyes of most Americans,
support for the war, or lack thereof, has nothing to do with patriotism 83% say a person can be patriotic if they don't support the war. Most conservatives, as well as most moderates and liberals, say so. But in assessing the payoffs from the war so far, Americans say one goal making the U.S. safer from terrorism has still not been realized. Just 30% say the U.S. is safer from that threat today thanks to the Iraq action, and 23% say it has made the U.S. less safe. 44% say it has made no difference. HAS THE ACTION AGAINST IRAQ MADE Now 12/2005 Safer from terrorism 30% 35% No difference 44 41 Less safe 23 22 THE U.S....? 3/2004 36% 38 22
1/2004 50% 29 18
One reason for this may be that only 35% of Americans see the Iraq action as a major part of the broader war on terror. Another 11% see it as a major part, while nearly half 49% - see it as not connected at all. Back in the Spring of 2003, most Americans thought it was a major part. IS IRAQ PART OF WAR ON TERROR? Now 12/2005 11/2004 Yes, major part 35% 41% 34% Yes, minor part 11 12 9 No, separate 49 43 51
5/2003 51% 14 32
Fewer than half of Americans say they are following the trial of Saddam Hussein, including just 8% who are following it very closely. RATING THE PRESIDENT: THE IMPACT OF IRAQ
The American people continue to give President Bush low marks for the way he is handling his job as president. President Bush's current job approval is 34% -- an all-time low for the Bush Presidency that is unchanged from last month. PRES. BUSH'S JOB APPROVAL 2/06 1/06 3/05 34% 42% 43% 59 51 48
Approve Disapprove
Now 34% 57
4/04 46% 47
4/03 73% 21
More than seven in ten Republicans still approve, virtually the same number as two weeks ago, after views of the President were damaged by the nowaborted Dubai Ports deal. Only 6% of Democrats and 28% of Independents approve, also not changed from then. Opinions about the war in Iraq are also related to approval -- 64% of Americans who think things are going well in Iraq approve of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as president, while only 13% of Americans who think things are going badly approve. President Bush's approval ratings for handling the war in Iraq have closely followed the highs and lows of his overall approval rating since the war began. In April 2003 just after the fall of Baghdad 79% of Americans approved of the way the President was handling the war in Iraq, and 73%
approved of how he was handling his job overall. In April of 2004 right after the revelations of the abuse of Iraqi prisoners at the Abu Ghraib prison both of these numbers fell below 50%. They rose slightly before the election, only to drop again through 2005. Currently 31% of Americans approve of the way the President is handling the war in Iraq, and 34% approve of the way he is handling his job overall. PRES. BUSH'S JOB APPROVAL Now 2/2006 1/2006 4/2004 34% 34% 42% 46% 31% 30% 30% -37% 39% 41% 40%
Overall Iraq Foreign Policy
4/2003 73% 79% --
The President's approval rating for foreign policy has followed this trend as well. Today 30% of Americans approve of the way President Bush is handling foreign policy down 9 points since January, the last time this question was asked. Only 31% believe that the Bush Administration has clearly explained what the U.S.'s goals are in Iraq, while twice that number believes the Administration hasn't done that yet. Most Americans are skeptical of the President's description of the situation in Iraq. 66% think President Bush makes things in Iraq sound better than they are the highest number to date. 23% think he describes things accurately. PRESIDENT BUSH DESCRIBES Now Better than they are 66% Worse than they are 6 Accurately 23 THINGS IN IRAQ... 1/2006 1/2005 58% 55% 5 6 31 35 are more mixed. 35% situation accurately, worse in Iraq than makes things in Iraq
Views on how the media explains the situation in Iraq say when the media talks about Iraq they describe the but almost as many 31% - say they make things sound they really are. A quarter of Americans say the media sound better than they area.
THE MEDIA DESCRIBES THINGS IN IRAQ... Better than they are 24% Worse than they are 31 Accurately 35 Iraq remains the dominant problem facing the country. While fewer name it now than last month, it is still ahead of the economy and jobs and terrorism.
U.S.' MOST IMPORTANT PROBLEM Now 2/2006 War in Iraq 20% 24% Economy/Jobs 13 13 Terrorism 6 9 Americans view the Democratic Party as more likely to make the right decisions about Iraq, and by a larger margin than in earlier polls. 41% say the Democratic Party is more likely to make the right decisions about Iraq; 35% choose the Republicans. LIKELY TO MAKE THE RIGHT DECISIONS ABOUT IRAQ? Democrats 41% Republicans 35 Americans are split over the President's handling of the campaign against terrorism. Now 45% of Americans approve and 47% disapprove of the way President Bush is handling this issue. BUSH'S HANDLING OF THE WAR ON TERROR Now 2/2006 1/2006 Approve 45% 43% 52% Disapprove 47 50 43 Although still low, the President's approval rating for handling the economy has risen slightly to 35% from 32% last month. This rise coincides with a more positive view of the state of the economy in general. After dipping down to 50% last month, a slight majority of Americans (55%) once again thinks the condition of the national economy is at least somewhat good. Americans continue to have a pessimistic outlook when assessing the direction the country is going in overall. Now 66% of all Americans think the country is on the wrong track. DIRECTION OF THE COUNTRY Now 1/2006 Right Direction 28% 32% Wrong Track 66 61 Congress fares better than it did last month. While only 1 in 3 Americans approve of the way Congress is handling its job, the number of people who disapprove is down 7 points from last month. Still, a majority of Americans - 54% - disapprove of the way Congress is handling its job. JOB APPROVAL OF CONGRESS Now 2/2006 Approve 32% 28% Disapprove 54 61
OPERATING U.S. PORTS In the last two weeks, the Administration faced broad condemnation (from the public and from members of Congress of both parties) for an arrangement giving a United Arab Emirates company operational (but not security) control of six U.S. shipping ports. That deal was withdrawn just before interviewing for this poll began. The argument presented by the Bush Administration that the United Arab Emirates is an ally of the United States does not seem to have convinced most Americans. Only 17% of Americans say that, in general, allowing companies from other nations to operate U.S. ports is okay if the country in question is an ally of the United States. 36% of Americans believe it depends on the country, while 42% believe it is never acceptable for a foreign company to operate a U.S. shipping port. FOREIGN COMPANIES OPERATING U.S. SHIPPING PORTS Okay if ally 17% Depends on Country 36 Never okay 42
_______________________________________________________________
This poll was conducted among a nationwide random sample of 1136 adults, interviewed by telephone March 9-12, 2006. The error due to sampling for results based on the entire sample could be plus or minus three percentage points. The poll includes an oversample of people who have served in the military in Iraq or have an immediate family member who has served there. There were a total of 247 interviews with this group (see separate release). They were weighted to their proper proportion within the total sample.
<tables omitted>
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