Crude Oil up over a buck, the July contract is up $1.63

[puerco-bellies]

www.alaron.com = Look on the right hand side enter the crude symbol CL and mark quotes.

It is the consensus in my office (I am a commodity's broker) that we will see 72-75 per barrel by July/August if we DON'T attack Iran.

The Iranian Crude Oil Bourse (Exchange)is scheduled to launch March 20th which will likely trigger an attack by the U.S. aimed at toppling Iran's government, or at the least stopping Tehran from using the Euro to trade crude.

Iran is the fourth largest seller of crude oil. If they switch to the Euro as the currency for crude, that will release huge reserves of U.S. Dollars on the open market as Iranian Oil customers dump Dollars for Euros' to buy oil. Since the Iranians sell approximately $380,000,000 worth of oil per year, you can infer that you will see a like amount of dollars dumped. The cost of a barrel of oil in U.S. dollars would sharply increase because in a very real sense the value of the dollar is/was underpinned to the intrinsic value of crude oil.. This, added to the sudden increase of U.S. dollars on the For-Ex means the dollar will free fall against other currencies, making our meager exports cheaper, but imports (including crude) very expensive to us..

The short story, it's very bad for our economy.

Can anybody say "Shock and Awe"?

[Skink]

1. Doesn't the Petro admin that run our country profit either way?

The Bush team is all about the money now.

[brokensymmetry]

2. Yes indeed.

BTW, take a look at the open interest in Wheat. I hear it's at record levels, with hedgers long and specs short. With the drought, that has interesting implications.

And then there's the Icelandic banking system...

Yes, I think a bumpy ride is forthcoming...

[bananas]

3. What's the consensus if we do attack Iran?

[Deja Q]

4. But libertarians think the economy wouldn't be hurt.

:eyes:

Of course, they don't think. They parrot and shoehorn events to fit their views.

Even how quality of products declining, due partly to offshoring but due entirely to many means of qualitycost-cutting measures, is considered a reflection of "socialism". :wtf:

[LSK]

5. K&R because this is what Iran is REALLY up to

Why cant the President just give us the truth?? Why make up all this BULLSHIT about nukes? :grr:

[Hutzpa]

6. So when can we expect another war............please

I just cannot take another war I'm as Poor as it is, I'm soo poor, I just lost the OR from POOR, I'm now PO. Please no more War, no more.

:banghead:

[Neil Lisst]

7. It's going to a hundred within a year

The low 70's is good for early summer, but I'm convinced it's going to 100 within a year.

[muriel_volestrangler]

8. As a commodity broker, what's your office's take on this?

14th March, 2006: Launch of Iranian oil trading hits wall
Oil exchange unlikely to begin till at least midyear

...
Despite repeated reports over the past 18 months or so that the planned bourse would finally open for business on March 20, 2006 -- and go head to head with the New York Mercantile Exchange and the ICE Futures Exchange in London -- the start date has been postponed by at least several months and maybe more than a year.

"In the middle of 2006, we are able to start the bourse," Mohammad Asemipur, special adviser on the project to Iran's Oil Minister, said when reached in Tehran. The plan is to trade petrochemical products first, with a crude oil contract coming last, a rollout that likely will take three years, he said.

"Oh, crikey, it's at a much earlier stage than people would think," said British consultant Chris Cook, who claims credit for coming up with the idea for the exchange in the first place and is a member of the consortium headed by the Tehran Stock Exchange that is charged with bringing the project to life.

"You can rest assured, there will not be a crude oil contract, Gulf-based, in my opinion, within a year -- and that would be really pushing it," Mr. Cook, a former director of ICE's predecessor, the International Petroleum Exchange, said when reached in Scotland.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/LAC.20060314.RIRAN14/TPStory/Business