What would it take to have year-round hurricanes?

[BushOut06]

We all know that that hurricanes are greatly affected by global warming, and that it requires a specific water temperature in order for tropical development to occur. Reading on the Environmental Board that there is a tropical disturbance off the coast of Brazil, south of the equator, got me thinking about this again. How much more would the temperatures have to rise in order for us to have hurricanes year-round?

And if that does happen, would anyone still want to live anywhere near the coast?

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=115x46008

[Mythsaje]

1. I actually expect that California

will start seeing typhoons (I think that's what they're called in the Pacific) sometime within the next several years.

[BushOut06]

2. I think they're still called hurricanes, and you almost got one last year

If they're in the eastern Pacific, they're still called hurricanes. There's usually a bunch of them off the coast of Mexico, but they usually spin out to sea. I forget which one it was, but there was a tropical storm that actually dumped quite a bit of rain on parts of Arizona after crossing Baja.

[Mythsaje]

4. That's right...

I do think we're going to see more of the same.

[Richard D]

10. We did have a near miss a few years ago.

I remember warnings of up to 20 inches of rain an hour. I too think that we'll be seeing one in Southern California before too long. I hate to think of the devastation that will be caused by this as there is no infrastructure here to deal with this. Glad I live in the mountains.

[BushOut06]

11. Woudln't the mountains be more dangerous?

I would think you'd have to worry about mudslides up in the mountains.

Dammit, is there anywhere in this country that's safe from natural disasters?

[Mythsaje]

12. Dunno

North Dakota? Montana? Idaho?

I think those states are safe enough, barring a freak twister perhaps.

[BushOut06]

13. Blizzards, Yosemite supervolano

If the "supervolcano" under Yellowstone ever goes off, you can kiss the entire Northwest good-bye. Maybe even most of the Western US, and possibly the entire friggin world ;)

[Mythsaje]

14. See...then I guess the answer would be "no."

Believe me, the supervolcano is the least of my worries. Ain't much more I can do about that than the big stinking volcano that stares down at me every day.

[Lisa]

6. the eastern Pacific hurricane page for last year ...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2005epac.shtml


They haven't got all the tracks plotted yet, but here's the one from 2004. My impression is that there haven't been as many powerful/damaging ones as in the Atlantic/Caribbean ... but then again, I don't live on the west coast of Mexico/Central America, so I haven't had to worry about one bearing down on me!

[Lisa]

3. that's a really good question ...

I will ask one of the climatologists I know ... all I can say is, for this to happen the ocean conditions would have to be different from any time in recorded history. I don't know if anyone has been going around the Caribbean etc., asking the aboriginal inhabitants if they have any stories about winter hurricanes in their oral histories. My guess is that the sea surface temperatures would have to be much warmer than they were, even during the Medieval Warm Period.

I have no idea what possible disruptions to the Atlantic circulation pattern (a possible outcome of warmer temperatures and more icemelt in the north) might do to southerly sea temperatures -- that's something else to consider.

[soothsayer]

5. Ask Jupiter! They've had that big storm up there for a long, long

time

[Imagevision]

7. They've predicted more hurricanes in 06 then 2006 - interesting!

Fema better start hiring people fast

[Aviation Pro]

9. Not yet....

...I spoke to a staff member at tne National Hurricane Center this week and they haven't published their forecasts yet. What they have issued is a final report on Hurricane Emily, which they upgraded to a Category 5 storm making it the earliest 5 on record.

[Aviation Pro]

8. Hurricanes are born...

...from atmospheric conditions such as light upper level winds at the 250 mb level. An increase in Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) increases the potential intensity of hurricanes (the result of convection), but without the upper-level anticyclones they get sheared before rotation starts. Summertime in the Northern Hemisphere between June and November in the Atlantic basin is hurrican season because of the amalgam of both these phenomenom.

That being said, there are mid-latitude cyclones that do act similarily to hurricanes but rarely reach the intensity level of a hurricane. These are a result of a deep low pressure system which forms from temperature and density exchange. A good example of these types of storms is a Nor'easter.

[niyad]

15. don't remember the exact year--but there was a march storm that hit

the florida gulf coast, simply called "the no-name storm" (believe it was around 94 or 95)

and there were several tropical depressions/storms in january in the atlantic (think the names went all the way to zeta)

[converted_democrat]

16. I've lived in FL for a long time now, and it is just getting to the point

I'm bothered by them.. Besides the politics, I love where I live.. I'm not relishing the idea of having to give up and go back to a colder climate, but by the same token I don't want to be blown away either.. We didn't have any damage last year, but the year before last was just unreal.. We went without power for a total of 5 weeks, if you combine the time from every storm together.. We bought a generator, but that will do you little good if your home is blown away.. The other thing that bothers me is that our State Legislature and the insurance companies really made it tough to collect insurance if your home is damaged.. We pay ungodly insurance rates in the first place, and they've basically made it impossible to collect if you do have a problem.. I have always known that we were taking chances living in this area, but we bought lots of insurance just for that very reason.. The house is already for sale, but for different reasons.. We want a bigger piece of property, we just don't know where we want buy yet.. I'm kind of torn though because our business does quite well when there is hurricane damage.. Like I said before, it's just getting to the point where it's really starting to bother me.. Right now, houses in this area are worth alot, but how long will it be before the masses realize that the hurricane situation will probably only get worse? At some point people are going to realize that perhaps this isn't the place to retire to. I really fear in the next few coming years it will be impossible to unload a house in FL. If hurricane season went year round I would leave without a doubt, it's just too much to take..