EUROPE 2020 ALARM / Global Systemic Rupture

[Twist_U_Up]

http://www.europe2020.org/en/section_global/150206.htm

The Laboratoire européen d’Anticipation Politique Europe 2020 (LEAP/E2020) now estimates to over 80% the probability that the week of March 20-26, 2006 will be the beginning of the most significant political crisis the world has known since the Fall of the Iron Curtain in 1989, together with an economic and financial crisis of a scope comparable with that of 1929. This last week of March 2006 will be the turning-point of a number of critical developments, resulting in an acceleration of all the factors leading to a major crisis, disregard any American or Israeli military intervention against Iran. In case such an intervention is conducted, the probability of a major crisis to start rises up to 100%, according to LEAP/E2020.

snip

Decoding of the aggravating factor “The military intervention against Iran”
Iran holds some significant geo-strategic assets in the current crisis, such as its ability to intervene easily and with a major impact on the oil provisioning of Asia and Europe (by blocking the Strait of Ormuz), on the conflicts in progress in Iraq and Afghanistan, not to mention the possible recourse to international terrorism. But besides these aspects, the growing distrust towards Washington creates a particularly problematic situation. Far from calming both Asian and European fears concerning the accession of Iran to the statute of nuclear power, a military intervention against Iran would result in an quasi-immediate dissociation of the European public opinions <6> which, in a context where Washington has lost its credibility in handling properly this type of case since the invasion of Iraq, will prevent the European governments from making any thing else than follow their public opinions. In parallel, the rising cost of oil which would follow such an intervention will lead Asian countries, China first and foremost, to oppose this option, thus forcing the United States (or Israel) to intervene on their own, without UN guarantee, therefore adding a severe military and diplomatic crisis to the economic and financial crisis.

snip

In this perspective, it is useful to contemplate the following information 7: the share of the debt of the US government owned by US banks fell down to 1,7% in 2004, as opposed to 18% in 1982. In parallel, the share of this same debt owned by foreign operators went from 17% in 1982 up to 49% in 2004.
--> Question: How comes that US banks got rid of almost all their share of the US national debt over the last years?




Moreover, in order to try to avoid the explosion of the "real-estate bubble" on which rests the US household consumption, and at a time when the US saving rate has become negative for the first time since 1932 and 1933 (in the middle of the "Great Depression"), the Bush administration, in partnership with the new owner of the US Federal Reserve and a follower of this monetary approach, will flood the US market of liquidities.

more
http://www.europe2020.org/en/section_global/150206.htm

[stop the bleeding]

1. Crazy

[muriel_volestrangler]

2. But, since that was written: Launch of Iranian oil trading hits wall

Despite repeated reports over the past 18 months or so that the planned bourse would finally open for business on March 20, 2006 -- and go head to head with the New York Mercantile Exchange and the ICE Futures Exchange in London -- the start date has been postponed by at least several months and maybe more than a year.

"In the middle of 2006, we are able to start the bourse," Mohammad Asemipur, special adviser on the project to Iran's Oil Minister, said when reached in Tehran. The plan is to trade petrochemical products first, with a crude oil contract coming last, a rollout that likely will take three years, he said.

"Oh, crikey, it's at a much earlier stage than people would think," said British consultant Chris Cook, who claims credit for coming up with the idea for the exchange in the first place and is a member of the consortium headed by the Tehran Stock Exchange that is charged with bringing the project to life.

"You can rest assured, there will not be a crude oil contract, Gulf-based, in my opinion, within a year -- and that would be really pushing it," Mr. Cook, a former director of ICE's predecessor, the International Petroleum Exchange, said when reached in Scotland.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/LAC.20060314.RIRAN14/TPStory/Business

[tocqueville]

3. this has been classified as "rumor" in the French Hoaxbuster

http://www.hoaxbuster.com/hoaxliste/hoax.php?idArticle=46374 (in French)

the reasons are :

- the attack on Iran may happen or not, when ? nobody knows

- the Irani "oilbourse" in Euros has only been mentioned ONCE in ONE Iranian newspaper (Mehrnews), never again.

- a free tradeexchange in Iran already exists (Kish Island) and you can trade in euros if you want. The trade is already handling petrochemical products.

- to have an effect the trade should include ALL traders of the OPEC.

- since the US is the first buyer in the world, it could still buy in petrodollars and punish the others by boycott. Few countries want to take that risk.

- The French stockexchange's France Bourse magazine has officially accused the author of the report (Frank Biancheri) of making a publicity stunt for his thinktank (which is unique for that kind of newspaper)

http://www.francebourse.com/fiche_news_266.fb


so let's take all this very cautiously