We NEED Democratic Shift in Tennessee & MO to take Senate!

[Laura PourMeADrink]

According to this analysis, if the election was held today, Repigs would hold the senate 51-48 (See link for analysis:
http://www.myelectionanalysis.com/web-content/2006/Senate/Senindex.html

The two most likely prospects that are leaning R, that we must have are:

Tennessee Senate Race:

Rep.Front Runner:
Bob Corker
Mayor of Chattanooga
$3,824,628 Cash-on-Hand

Dem. Front-Runner:
Harold Ford, Jr.
Five-Term Rep.
$1,863,306 Cash-on-Hand



Missouri Senate Race:

MO Senate -- Slight Lean Republican
Rep. Incumbent:
Jim Talent
One-Term Senator
$4,659,554 Cash-on-Hand Dem. Front-Runner:

Claire McCaskill
State Auditor
$1,273,600 Cash-on-Hand

[nickinSTL]

1. so, you based your analysis on the money?

the polls have McCaskill up slightly in MO.

Not that we should accept that as a given, especially as St. Louis City has decided to go with Diebold...not sure when their first Diebold election is, but...if St. Louis is Diebolded for Talent, McCaskill can't win the state.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

2. worst case poll - rasmussen

No, I wasn't basing anything on money. It is not my analysis, just one I found on the internet.

Here's the 'worst case' poll from rasmussen - looks like McCaskell's got a fighting chance ! That is great !


Election 2006

Tennessee Senate

Ed Bryant (R) 45%
Harold Ford (D) 36%


Election 2006

Missouri Senate

Jim Talent (R) 46%
Claire McCaskill (D) 41%
Other 4%
Not Sure 7%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2006/State%20Polls/February%202006/Missouri%20Senate%20February.htm

[nickinSTL]

4. I hadn't seen this Rasmussen poll...

The polls I'd seen had McCaskill up by a point or 2.

Not that it surprises me from Rasmussen.

[Robbins]

6. ramussen poll

the latest poll has McCaskill leading Talent 43 to 40. Bottom line Is people should not write off
McCaskill winning.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

3. like the verb "Diebolded"

[nickinSTL]

5. heh. I think I've seen it on DU before

I kind of doubt I invented the term (I'm not that creative :P )

But, it seems like a good way to express the point.