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BILL O'REILLY, HOST: "The O'Reilly Factor" is on. Tonight.
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GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: Americans have never retreated in the face of thugs and assassins. And we will not begin now.
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O'REILLY: The president feels Iraq is getting better, but is that true? We'll hear both sides.
The Ohio media is basically supporting a judge who would not send a child rapist to prison. And on the subject of prison, are American women convicts enduring cruel and unusual punishment?
Caution, you are about to enter a no-spin zone. "The Factor" begins right now.
Hi, I'm Bill O'Reilly. Thanks for watching us tonight. The fog of war, that is the subject of this evening's "Talking Points Memo".
As the Iraq War enters its fourth year, all Americans who care about their country must take a hard look at the situation. The key question is, are we making progress in Iraq? Is all the blood and treasure the USA has spent getting us closer to a country which would fight terrorism and grant freedom to its citizens?
The answer to that question is I don't know. After three years of blood, sweat, and tears, I cannot report to you anything definite about Iraq's future.
The Bush administration is adamant in saying things are improving there, and the USA will achieve victory. War opponents, including some high-ranking military officers disagree, saying the chaos is getting worse.
Much of the debate centers on mistakes in the past, but those mistakes are not important now. What is vitally important is that the coalition succeed in giving the Iraqis a chance to build a decent country. That being said, there's a time line. War is a performance business. And right now, a Gallup poll says only 40 percent of Americans believe we will win in Iraq.
That pessimistic view can change fast if success has become apparent. But it's hard to believe the Bush administration can carry on a stalemate for another year. There is an urgency about the Iraq situation.
Now "Talking Points" believes the effort of America and its coalition partners in Iraq is a noble effort. We are the good guys. But are we the smart guys? Will the Iraqis respond to the challenge and defend themselves in the foreseeable future? Again, I don't know.
What I do know is that if the effort fails in Iraq, Iran will dominate that country. And it will turn into an anti-American state that will enable worldwide terrorism, just as Iran is doing within its borders right now.
Another terrorist-friendly country puts America and the world in even more danger. We will have traded the despicable Saddam for the despicable mullahs.
So the Bush administration is correct when it says Iraq is a national security issue, but the patience of the American people is not unlimited. So progress must be visible to sustain the Iraq effort much longer.
That is the truth about Iraq as we enter the fourth year of the war. Victory still possible, but not yet assured. And that's the Memo.
Now for the top story tonight, opposing point of view. With us, Medea Benjamin, the co-founder of Codepink, an anti-war group.
All right, where am I going wrong here, Ms. Benjamin?
MEDEA BENJAMIN, CO-FOUNDER OF CODEPINK: The U.S. is part of the problem right now. I think the sooner we get out, the sooner the Iraqis will come together, form a real unity government. And the American people, I think, agree with me at this point.
O'REILLY: All right.
BENJAMIN: They're tired of this war.
O'REILLY: .so you believe that as soon as we leave, we being the United States and Britain, that the Iraqi people are going to come together, the Shia and the Sunnis, hated enemies for hundreds of years, and form a coalition government that's going to be operative, and they'll become a civilized country?
BENJAMIN: Well, first of all, Sunnis and Shias have lived together for thousands of years. U.S. is exacerbating the ethnic tensions. Look now at Samarra, where the U.S. is bombing villages, creating more orphans, more widows, more grief, more anger against us, more insurgents, and more ethnic tensions.
O'REILLY: OK, so you do believe, though, that in your mind, Shia and Sunni will come together as soon as we leave and form an effective government? That's what you believe?
BENJAMIN: This is the oldest civilization on earth, Bill. They have to come together. In the end, it's going to be the Iraqis. The U.S. is creating more insurgency, more problems. I think if there were a time line for U.S. withdrawal -- and I think it should be by the end of the year -- and the American people believe that's true, the troops you know now by the last poll say 72 percent think they should be out by the year.
O'REILLY: Well, but the polls are the polls, but all right - so I can't argue a hypothetical. You believe that the Sunnis and Shia would come together and form an effective government that's an anti-terror state. You think they would fight terrorism, these people?
BENJAMIN: Well, it was interesting in your remarks. You talk about not wanting an Iranian style government, but the U.S. allies right now are closer to the Iranians. So I think they have to. The U.S.
O'REILLY: The U.S. allies. What does that mean?
BENJAMIN: The government that the U.S. is putting in place.
O'REILLY: The Shia.
BENJAMIN: The Shia.
O'REILLY: Yes, they have an affinity for Iran because they're both Shiites. You know that.
BENJAMIN: And they have spent a lot of their time in Iran.
O'REILLY: All right, so if we get out of Iraq, the pullout, what's to prevent Iran, a much stronger country, from coming in then and dominating that country as a puppet state? What is to prevent that?
BENJAMIN: Iran is basically having more influence in Iraq right now.
O'REILLY: OK, well, answer my question.
BENJAMIN: .than it ever had before with the U.S. there.
O'REILLY: What is to prevent Iran from coming into Iraq and dominating that country? What is to prevent that?
BENJAMIN: What prevents that is the Sunnis and the Kurds, who are.
O'REILLY: The Kurds, they're going to.
BENJAMIN: .a significant percentage of the population.
O'REILLY: Yes, they're going to fight their own battles.
BENJAMIN: Bill, you know what? We don't hear.
O'REILLY: So wait, wait, wait, wait. The Sunnis, you believe, the Sunnis, the minority in the country can stand up to a nation like Iran and stop them from dominating that government. That's what you believe?
BENJAMIN: I believe that the Iraqi people are tired of the violence, are tired of the war. And I believe that there are many, many intelligent Iraqis, both religious and secular, because I know they come together all the time when there's a bombing of a mosque, and they say let's not go the route of civil war. Let's come together.
O'REILLY: All right. And you understand that under three decades of Saddam, that the Sunnis brutalized the Shia. And there's a lot of revenge and blood in the air.
All right, that's fine. Again, you're entitled to your opinion. Iran itself, now is Codepink going to say don't take action against Iran if they develop a nuclear weapon? Will Codepink come down on that side as well?
BENJAMIN: Well, we don't believe that there should be sanctions because we know that hurts the people themselves.
O'REILLY: All right. So are you -- is Codepink then say Iran is entitled to develop a nuclear weapon?
BENJAMIN: No, we don't want nuclear weapons in Iran.
O'REILLY: Then how would you prevent.
BENJAMIN: We don't want them anywhere in the world.
O'REILLY: How would you prevent a nuclear weapon in Iran?
BENJAMIN: We believe that it should be through the international community of pressure. And we feel that.
O'REILLY: But no sanctions?
BENJAMIN: I think sanctions hurt the common people. Saddam Hussein was never hurt by sanctions.
O'REILLY: What kind of international pressure do you believe would persuade the mullahs not to develop the nuclear weapon?
BENJAMIN: I think it should be in the context of working towards a nuclear-free Middle East. I think we should.
O'REILLY: Well, what does that mean? I mean.
BENJAMIN: I think we should be pressuring.
O'REILLY: You've got mullahs who.
BENJAMIN: .the other countries not to have nuclear weapons as well.
O'REILLY: OK, that means Israel.
BENJAMIN: You have Pakistan, you have Israel, you have India.
O'REILLY: So how the United States.
BENJAMIN: .you have the U.S. making deals with India.
O'REILLY: Fine.
BENJAMIN: It's not fair.
O'REILLY: It's not fair?
BENJAMIN: I think we should call for nuclear-free zone. In fact, we should call for a nuclear-free world.
O'REILLY: OK. Israel, and Pakistan, and India are never going to give up their nuclear weapons. You know that.
O'REILLY: Why? Why don't we put pressure on them? Why don't we go to the.
O'REILLY: There's not even pressure in the world to put on those countries. They're not going to give up their nuclear weapons.
BENJAMIN: Well.
O'REILLY: .no matter what we say.
BENJAMIN: Then if you were an Iranian, wouldn't you say that's not fair? Shouldn't we go after the countries that already have nuclear weapons as well?
O'REILLY: OK, fair doesn't enter into it. I want to protect lives in America. Iran has sworn that they're going to destroy Israel and they're helping people kill us right now.
So it sounds to me, with all due respect, Ms. Benjamin, that you don't want to take any action against Iran. Push turns to shove, you'll let them have the nuke because it's fair?
BENJAMIN: No, I don't think so. I believe in working through the international community.
O'REILLY: The international community.
BENJAMIN: .just like the U.S. should have worked through the international community.
O'REILLY: Just like we worked through the international community with North Korea.
BENJAMIN: Well, we are working through the international community.
O'REILLY: OK, but do they not have the bomb that they lied to us about?
BENJAMIN: No, they don't have the bomb, just like Iraq - Iran doesn't have the bomb.
O'REILLY: OK, so North Korea.
BENJAMIN: We're talking about threats that don't exist.
O'REILLY: .Ms. Benjamin, North Korea, in your opinion, does not have a nuclear weapon, is that what you just said?
BENJAMIN: North Korea does not have a nuclear weapon.
O'REILLY: OK.
BENJAMIN: We know that North Korea doesn't have a nuclear weapon.
O'REILLY: Is that right?
BENJAMIN: Whether they are trying to get a nuclear weapon is another issue.
O'REILLY: OK. I believe when you go back and you talk to your people, they will correct you on that. They do have a nuclear weapon in North Korea. And the reason they do is they lied to us in the Clinton administration and developed it. In fact, they have two or three nuclear weapons, but you guys.
BENJAMIN: OK, but Bill, then look at the world we're creating. We're saying that the countries that are quick to get their nuclear weapons should be able to keep them, and the ones that are trying to catch up with the others shouldn't be able to.
O'REILLY: OK, but they're.
BENJAMIN: We have to be consistent.
O'REILLY: .terrorist states that are trying to get the nuclear weapon now. Now Israel is not a terrorist state.
BENJAMIN: But if we.
O'REILLY: Neither is India or Pakistan.
BENJAMIN: .feel surrounded and feel threatened, what we have to be is consistent.
O'REILLY: OK.
BENJAMIN: We have to say there should not be nuclear weapons. We are part of a treaty and are not abiding by our part of the treaty because we're putting money into more usable nuclear weapons. We should stop the research on nuclear weapons in the U.S. And we should call for global disarmament.
O'REILLY: All right. We appreciate you coming in, Ms. Benjamin. Thank you very much.
BENJAMIN: Thank you.
O'REILLY: Right.
Next on the rundown, a man who feels the Iraq War will be won, the other side.
And later, the state of women's prisons in America. How bad are they?
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