Holy Crap! Up to 56 million American jobs could be outsourced.

[Elwood P Dowd]

And the rich corporate bastards that own our government will keep shipping 'em out of the country until we have a depression. From The Washington Post via Trade Alert.

http://www.tradealert.us/news_item.asp?NID=1976557

Will Your Job Survive?

By Harold Meyerson
Wednesday, March 22, 2006; A21

In case you've been worrying about how the war in Iraq will end, or the coming of avian flu, or the extinction of the universe as we drift into the cosmic void, well, relax. Here's something you should really fret about: the future of the U.S. economy in the age of globalization.

For a discussion of same, let me call your attention to an article in the March-April issue of Foreign Affairs by Princeton University economist Alan Blinder. The vice chairman of the Federal Reserve's board of governors from 1994 to 1996, Blinder is the most mainstream of economists, which makes his squawk of alarm all the more jarring. But the man has crunched the numbers, and what he's found is sure to induce queasiness.

In the new global order, Blinder writes, not just manufacturing jobs but a large number of service jobs will be performed in cheaper climes. Indeed, only hands-on or face-to-face services look safe. "Janitors and crane operators are probably immune to foreign competition," Blinder writes, "accountants and computer programmers are not."

There follow some back-of-the-envelope calculations as Blinder totes up the number of jobs in tradable and non-tradable sectors. Then comes his (necessarily imprecise) bottom line: "The total number of current U.S. service-sector jobs that will be susceptible to offshoring in the electronic future is two to three times the total number of current manufacturing jobs (which is about 14 million)." As Blinder believes that all those manufacturing jobs are offshorable, too, the grand total of American jobs that could be bound for Bangalore or Bangladesh is somewhere between 42 million and 56 million. That doesn't mean all those jobs are going to be exported. It does mean that the Americans performing them will be in competition with people who will do the same work for a whole lot less.

<more>

[Eurobabe]

1. Hands on jobs are NOT safe either

they'll keep the borders open so any Tom, Dick or Harry can come in and do manual labor job for alot less than you are willing to do it. This big biz govt. is going to squeeze the life out of the USA.

[Elwood P Dowd]

3. I wonder what that number would be?

10 million......20 million?

x(

[MADem]

5. You'll be amazed at what people will work for when there is no work

Predatory bastards during the Great Depression would often fire workers, and then hire new ones for less. Or, if someone was going around, looking for work, and the boss liked the cut of their jib, they'd say "Well, there's no work today, but come back tomorrow...there may be an opening." Then, they'd fire the guy they had on payroll, and hire the new guy for half wages.

About the only job security came with city or state or federal jobs--and those were usually doled out as political graft, in exchange for work getting out the vote, or things of that nature.

[Elwood P Dowd]

9. My father once worked for a dollar a day during the depression

He told me stories of some people who would work all day just for a couple of meals.

[MADem]

17. Perhaps this is BushCo's "secret plan" to secure the borders!!!

Who wants to leave Mexico, Guatemala, etc. and make a dangerous crossing, to seek scarce jobs at low wages that offer only survival, and no opportunity to save, or support a family back home?

Time for us to brush up on our lawn care and housekeeping skills, to cater to the "upper classes." The rebirth of American serfs....!

[skids]

51. It's not a secret.

He said it himself in public:

"By bringing economic growth to Central America, CAFTA will contribute to the rise of a vibrant middle class. And that makes us reach -- a step closer to our goal, a goal of the Americas where the opportunities in San Jose, Costa Rica are as real as they are in San Jose, California."

“If you're concerned about immigration to this country, then you must understand that CAFTA and the benefits of CAFTA will help create new opportunity in Central American countries, which will mean someone will be able to find good work at home, somebody will be able to provide for their family at home, as opposed to having to make the long trip to the United States. CAFTA is good immigration policy, as well as good trade policy.”

Oh, BTW, this thread got me thinking. Maybe a good gag for a science fiction book/film would be to
have a subplot involving all those annoying robot drone "avatars" piloted by foreign labor.
Sort of tying in the old assembly line job problems with the outsourcing meme.

[MADem]

64. Oh, great joy in the morning!! "Onion plucker" jobs for EVERYONE! nt

[rman]

57. That's the whole point: "flexibilization" of the labor market.

So that their economy can flourish while ours goes down the drain.

[Warpy]

7. Face to face jobs are all that are safe

but as the customer base dries up, those jobs will start to disappear, too.

We're about to learn a very harsh lesson about what happens to rich countries that beggar their population: depression.

Stupid people always think the collapse of the stock market caused our last one. What really caused it was the sudden loss of the paper profit that was allowing underemployed people to maintain their lifestyles. When that vanished, it took the consumer market with it. This time, it's likely to be the housing market that does the job. The stock market has been supported by tax cuts to the rich.

Remember, no rich man ever gave anybody a job he didn't have a customer waiting for.

[SmokingJacket]

32. Automation is getting rid of a lot of those jobs, too...

Who needs bank tellers when you have ATMs? Who needs grocery store cashiers now they have self-checkout?

Who needs video store clerks, now that we have Netflix? Or bookstore clerks with online shopping?

[sandnsea]

47. Immigrants - H1B Visas

NO, they are not safe. No job is safe.

[Daphne08]

2. They don't need the American Middle Class any longer.

These corporations are going after the growing Middle Classes in India and China.

They just don't give a damn about us. Period.

[Jim__]

6. I have my doubts that India and China, once they've established a middle

class, are going to allow international corporations access to their market.

[Daphne08]

22. Once they've established a Middle Class?

Both those countries already have (what we would call) a Middle class.

http://www.csmonitor.com/2004/0513/p01s04-wosc.html

http://www.theglobalist.com/DBWeb/StoryId.aspx?StoryId=2195

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/3732914.stm

Are you saying that the people in India and China will not buy American products? They already do and at present, they work for less money and need no benefits.

Perhaps I don't understand your statement.

[Jim__]

27. Yes. They each have a middle class now, but its very small.

From the articles you cited:

India:

A truer measure of India's failure is not its present level of poverty, but its inability to create a middle class. India's middle class constituted less than 10% of the population in 1984 and 1985, according to the National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER).

Since then, it has more than tripled, but is still less than 20%. If our country's economy grows 7% over the foreseeable future and if the population increases anually by 1.5%, if the literacy rate keeps rising and if we assume the historical middle-class growth rate of the past 15 years, then half of India will turn middle class between 2020 and 2040.

...

China:

The official aim is to achieve a "well-to-do society" by 2020, with a per capita income of five times the present one of about US$1,000.

Of course they buy American products now; its to their advantage. In the near future, it probabaly won't be (a Nobel laureate economist, a former free trader, wrote a paper detailing this - I think it was Samuelson - I don't have a reference right now). I've spoken to and listened to American businessmen who have built factories in China, its a Hobbesian choice. They need to build there to compete in today's world, but the Chinese take their technology and use it to build their own competing factories, and the factories these businesses have exist at the discretion of the Chinese government. The article you cited does no go into this directly, but has some text that you can use to infer the problem:

The multinationals who are falling over each other to produce goods of all kinds in China - not just for export but also for the burgeoning domestic market - are allowed in on condition their hosts can learn as well as make money from them.

"The Chinese want to absorb our technology and make everything by themselves, " said Masanori Fuji, whose Japanese firm produces telecoms equipment in eastern Zhejiang province.

If we continue to pursue the current reforms we will have a massive middle class, with more accountability and a more open and tolerant civil society

Steven Xu, economic consultant

"They are already overtaking Japan in semiconductors," he said.

China's East Asian neighbours are coming under growing pressure from the United States Government not to let their companies give away too many hi-tech secrets, he said

Our government policy is essentially forcing businesses to locate manufacturing overseas. Move or lose right now. But the long term prospects for these overseas businesses are not that attractive.

[Daphne08]

53. Then why does it SEEM that they are intent on destroying

the Middle Class here in America?

I'm not doubting what you say since you obviously have more expertise than I do in this area, but I just don't understand.

Are they attempting to financially satisfy their stockholders? Will our diminished wages and benefits simply be a byproduct of this? If so, how do they expect us to be in a financial position to purchase their products?

I'm thoroughly at a loss here, and worried sick about the future for my children and grandchildren because I feel we (the Americans, the very consumers who for decades have supported their businesses and helped them reap their profits ) are now being... betrayed!

I know that business is business and I'm not an anti-capitalist, but I think this is the most unAmerican thing I've seen in my lifetime.

(Please, forgive my rant, but I'm angry. Like so many other Americans, my husband, my father, my grandfathers, etc., all played by the rules, worked very hard, fought in wars for this country... all to help build a future for their families. Now it seems that my children will be the losers, and for what? For corporate profit?)

[Jim__]

59. I can give you my opinion

I'm not an economist or an expert on the subject.

In the current environment, corporations have to offshore manufacturing in order to stay competitive - there may be some exceptions to this, but in general, that's the case. American corporations are legally obligated to work for the benefit of their stockholders - European corporations have to consider the interests of their employees when they act.

Suppose you manufacture clothing. You can make, say a shirt, in the US for $25. You can make the same shirt in China for $10 (all the numbers are made up). Your competition makes all it shirts in China. Can you continue to make shirts in the US? Maybe for a year or so, then you go bankrupt. Your only real choice is to move your manufacturing offshore.

This is bad for the US - as evidenced by the trade deficit. But, there is nothing any individual business can do about it. If they keep their manufacturing here, they go bankrupt.

The only entity that can act on this current situation is the US government. People will call any action by the government protectionism. I'd say bullshit. China is using virtual slave labor, little or no environmental protection. I say the government can impose tariffs based on fair treatment of workers, environmental protection, etc. We have signed treaties that say such things can't be considered as a factor in trade. Those treaties were largely forged by the US government and its corporate partners. So, business is complicit in this situation - but, the reality turns out to be a nightmare for them too.

Its a bad situation. The US government can make a difference in this. Right now, our government is being run by free market ideologues who can not, or will not, accept the fact that the "free market" can lead to bad ends. The Chinese government is not being run by people under any such illusion.

I share your frustration and anger. I think we need to direct our anger where it can have a beneficial effect. I believe that is at the US government.

[Daphne08]

63. Protectionism sounds good at this point, although I know there

are downsides for that as well.

My view of all this is probably quite simplistic, but I do have enough sense to realize that free trade is hurting the Middle Class in this country.

As I stated, I'm certainly not against capitalism. It creates jobs and wealth for our country, but this "unfettered" capitalism is quite dangerous, in my opinion, for many reasons.

Anyway, thanks for the reply. :)

[oscarmitre]

44. I was in Hong Kong a couple of months ago

and a friend of mine who is resident there told me that the Hong Kong Disneyland was built with the aim of enticing the Chinese middle class to it, so even though it is expensive by international standards they still expect to make money from the millions and millions (and growing) middle class Chinese people visiting from mainland China.

[sandnsea]

48. With SO MANY people

In India and China, these big corporations can target the top 20% and still make a bundle. Becoming part of the investor class is the only way to guarantee an income.

[MadHound]

4. Globalization, as it is currently being operated,

Is a slow motion disaster. I've had many, many friends lose their jobs overseas. Know one fellow who paid good money for a BA in graphic arts, only to find the entire industry outsourced to India by the time he graduated.

And if it isn't outsourcing, then it is increased numbers of H1B visas, the the increasing number of illegal immigrants, all of which bring wages down in this country. The ultimate goal is to make the entire country into a corporate serfdom, where corporations own everything, and we are grudgingly paid subsistence wages. Maybe then the American public will wake up and take back their government.

[acmejack]

14. H1B visas have done a real job on us

People don't realize what they have done to the engineering community. Between that and of shoring you will be hard pressed to find a senior engineer anymore. Engineers are like commodity items now, experience counts for very little.

[FatDave]

25. Petition to Abolish the H1-B Visa

This has been floating around on DU for awhile. So here it is again, for anyone interested.

http://www.zazona.com/H1BPetition/p/petition.html

[ItsTheMediaStupid]

45. Engineering and IT have been killed by HB1 visas and outsourcing

Making 65% of what I made two years ago.

[AndyA]

8. Yer doin' a heck of a job, Bush!

You've bankrupted the country.

Removed our civil rights and liberties.

Lied to us.

Outsourced our jobs.

Started a war without cause.

Ruined our reputation around the world.

Discriminated against gays, women, and other minorities.

Allowed religious zealots to force their religious beliefs on the country.

Pushed through legislation that was written by the lobbyists.

Increased government corruption and size to new levels.

Made deals to benefit your big business friends, which has cost the American people billions, yet we get nothing in return.

I think we need to outsource Bush and his administration to China. They'd likely do the United States some GOOD in another country. They sure aren't helping us here! :thumbsdown:

[FatDave]

10. And all in 5 years (nt)

[Frustratedlady]

12. It was my understanding, that...

getting rid of the middle class jobs (or minimizing the payscales) would be wrong, as corporations need the middle class to buy their products. Am I wrong?

I can't believe the damage this administration has done in such a short span of time. If a depression is going to hit, I hope it hits during their term. Whether it does or doesn't, any Dem who takes over is going to have his hands full, trying to clean up this mess.

[FatDave]

20. Bush made a speech not long ago...

...where he talked about the new booming middle class in India, and how they were developing a taste for Domino's and Pizza Hut. His point was that it was good for America because we'd be able to sell more pizzas.

Of course, it doesn't take an economist to realize that selling pizzas in India doesn't do shit for American workers. It'll do pretty good for the corporations though.

And that's the point Daphne08 made above. American corporations don't need an American middle class to sell to. Their products are sold all over the world. As long as India and China can afford pizzas and tennis shoes, the corporations will do just fine. They view consumers as a natural resource. Once this country's consumers are drained of their money, they'll just move on to the next country.

[arikara]

43. If they have their globalism they have the world as their playground

Corporations don't care about a marketplace of 500 million when they are going after the world.

[SoCalDem]

11. Janitor's jobs are not safe either..

Soon, the assistant manager's job will include "cleaning up"...gotta justify that $10 an hour salary:sarcasm:

[FatDave]

13. This article makes it sound like...

...there's a danger of this happening in the future. Well, find yourself a programmer and they'll tell you that it's been going on for at least 3 years. Longer than that, but offshoring got really popular about 2002 or 2003.

Manufacturing jobs weren't even an option for my generation. The factories had all been moved to foreign countries by the time we were old enough to work in them. So we either worked in call centers or studied computers. Now those jobs get sent off too. The corportations make a killing and the money doesn't trickle down, just like it never did. The rich get richer and the poor and middle class get fucked. Something's gotta give.

[ItsTheMediaStupid]

46. Bingo.

Y2K was expensive for corporate America, so I think they decided right then and there to make sure they never had to pay a programmer 100K a year again by sending the work overseas and importing replacement workers.

[newportdadde]

15. The wages of face to face jobs will depress as well.

For every accountant or programmer or other white collar worker out there who looses their job there is just one more person looking for those face to face jobs to depress the wages of those jobs.

Anytime your labor supply increases your prevailing wage will fall.

[Norquist Nemesis]

16. The only "safe" jobs are Fortune 500 Execs and Politicians. n/t

[glitch]

37. Only as safe as their bodyguards can keep them. Wouldn't want to be them

when their shit finally hits our fan.

[Ian David]

18. They can even outsource the drive-thru window now

You pull your car up to the speaker, and the voice taking your order is in India.

They send pap-smear tests and mammograms and X-rays to India for interpretation.

Tax preparation companies send your forms over-seas.

[FatDave]

23. Lest you think he's joking...

http://www.usatoday.com/money/industries/food/2005-03-10-mcd_x.htm

[sarcasmo]

19. Remember our Dictator in chief says outsourcing is good for Amerika.

[FatDave]

21. With an implied "corporate" before America. (nt)

[area51]

24. Alan Blinder

Alan Blinder said:

"Indeed, only hands-on or face-to-face services look safe."

Actually, no job is safe in America. They can either offshore your job, or inshore it, which is bringing in immigrants, legal or illegal (as other DU'ers have mentioned).

[readmoreoften]

55. Teaching certainly is no better.

As a teacher at a U., let me tell you, there are 1000+ applicants for every real job, and most of the industry makes money as an "adjunct", making $1500-$3000 per course, per semester with no benefits. And even those jobs are tough to get. My guess is that all of these "face-to-face" jobs are going to be flooded. And that means no job is safe.

[Lethe]

26. illegal immigrants have got the market cornered on the other jobs

white collar jobs vanishing, blue collar jobs all taken by illegal immigrants

where does that leave the average american?

[Dr. Jones]

28. Ah, nutz.

Not good news for the hopelessly unemployed...

[davekriss]

29. It does not matter to the global corporate elite...

...whether or not the consumer of their product is American, Indian, Chinese, Russian, etc. All else being equal, the sale creates shareholder value, which is the only reason the corporation exists as it is designed today.

It just so happens that the shareholder is primarily the top 1% of the U.S. and global population (wealth is hyper-concentrated in the hands of a few today), and in our country this elite 1% sets the agenda for politics and determine which candidates are offered to the illusory democratic vote. This the system meets their needs very well. The rest of us, we rascal multitude, don't matter (we're either "useless eaters" or "cannon fodder" to BushCo).

What does matter to the overlords in the transnational firm is that they seek "best cost" opportunity -- because, if they don't, a competitor will, reducing market share and thus the tribute paid to the owning elite. Without changes to policy and law, set by democratic institutions, the transational firm can act in no other way.

Without law and regulation, nothing will change. The American elite will continue to do well (and their MSM propoganda machine will tout Orwellian good news). The American middle and lower classes have been cast adrift, to sink or swim in waters drenched in industrial pollution, populated by rats and sharks. Bush simple does not care. Your Senators likely do not care. Your Representative likely does not care. Until we again have a say in who's elected, and those we elect actively change policies that promote the general good while the owning class screams they diminish "economic efficiency", the quality of life of the average American will continue to decline (and decline in an accelerating fashion).

The problem is, it will not be easy to wrest back some say in who gets to run and get elected, so my guess is we're in for very rough times ahead.

[Harald Ragnarsson]

30. 14 million manufacturing jobs in the US?

That's pathetic. Our fathers and forefathers have to be rolling in their graves. Still some people would have unhampered illegal immigration and take the last few jobs Americans "won't do". Construction, packing houses, factories, these are all jobs Americans used to do or we would all have grown up cold and hungry.

THESE types of issues are what energizes the people to get out and vote for someone.

Edit: If we are ever seriously attacked by a foreign power in the US, you all realize how fucked we are by not being able to make anything here, don't ya?

MISSION ACCOMPLISHED, New World Order or Bust!

[rucky]

31. It's nice to help developing countries and all...

but can we do it without becoming Third World ourselves?

:shrug:

[Yavin4]

33. We Don't Need Jobs

We'll just buy and sell houses to each other.

[Elwood P Dowd]

34. More bad news. Check out this article

Outsourced workers who do find another job earn 20% less. When you ship 2 jobs out of the country, that will eventually create the loss of at least 1 more job. Yet, liars like John Fund and James Glassman continue to say outsourcing creates jobs - even in the face of multiple sources saying otherwise.

http://www.tradealert.us/news_item.asp?NID=1976557

[EVDebs]

38. The CEOs et al outsource their capital overseas to boot...and no jobs here

get created. Overseas, the foreign workers see the money going into govt hands who then reinvest in more factory sites etc., keeping the game going.

Who's going to buy all that stuff once the US consumer can't afford to ? Not those workers on peanuts pay overseas or the illegals here working for chumpchange.

[supernova]

35. Unsustainable economy

I don't know how big corporations expect us keep the world's largest ecnomy going (Buy! Buy! Buy!), if none of us have jobs that pay us money so we can, you know, buy stuff. :shrug:

I wonder if at some point the civil service class and politicians will realize they have been had because they will have no tax base. No one will be able to afford to pay their taxes from their nonexistent incomes. Revenues to governments of all sizes will see revenues shrink.

It's just incomprehensible to me.

[EVDebs]

40. They just bond everything to Wall Street's wishes. Both parties like this

practice. The wealthiest especially play both sides off on their benefits. Soon Wall Street will have decimated Main Street. It's coming fastern' they think.

[raccoon]

60. That's what I've been thinking for years, Supernova.

If anybody has any ideas about this, I'd like to hear it.

[EVDebs]

36. With a dollar soon to be without value, the incentives to outsource

will soon be to return those jobs 'back to sender'. And the Iranian oil petro-euro bourse was set to go into effect Mar. 20th. I haven't seen any word on that lately, can anyone comment ?

The dollar, the deficits (trade and govt) and globalization are combining to send the US economy into an Argentine-style contraction.


The Real Reasons Why Iran is the Next Target:
The Emerging Euro-denominated International Oil Marker
by William Clark

www.globalresearch.ca/articles/CLA410A.html 27 October 2004

[progressivebydesign]

39. Teaching the kids to find a skill that cannot be outsourced...

Outside of doing everything in our power to elect people that "get it", that's all you can do.

[Deja Q]

41. Good. The quality of the work & the people is lower. The Price of loyalty.

(In response to this article.)

Who here has not had to deal with offshored support or billing departments? They go by the script and especially for customer 'care', the snotty attitude is really despicable.

And if anyone else has noticed the quality of goods, made in China, et al, being piss-poor... bingo.

Where's the QC department?

Where are the workers? Well, duh, they don't like the United States. Maybe that's why they only do as minimnal as possible and leave the rest of us to complain.

This offshoring WILL catch up to the US, either sooner or later. The economy may be laughingly called "globalized", but we're all still bound by those pretty lines drawn on a map. And the conservative elements of those countries have hisotorcally been apathetic or hateful toward the USA. Offshoring is therefore a highly illogical thing to do. For too many reasons to list, here and now.

And until 56 mil go bye-bye, I refuse to worry. It hasn't happened yet and I could be ran over by a drunk steamroller operator (who may be native born, legal immigrant, or hold a H1B for all I care) tomorrow.

Trouble is, get a good range of people and ask them questions. We need to know how loyal the American people will remain if these actions continue. Especially if our military is needed at some point. If you think coathangers for abortions is an outrage-worthy argument, wait for a draft to happen and take notes over what happens...

[Deja Q]

42. Benjamin Franklin would tell us that those who want freedom and security

deserve neither.

Of course, the economy was different ~225 years ago too...

[Nikki Stone 1]

49. KICK AND RECOMMEND

:kick:

[Skidmore]

50. I stopped by Wallyworld today for the first time in ages.

It is the closest food store and my back is killing me today so I didn't want to sit in the car too long. Well, I went through the women's clothing department. I was shocked at what is being sold for clothing now. Whole lines of skirts and cheesy strap tops all made out of swimsuit material. Nothing really of any good materials and most had crooked seams or the hems were uneven.

We need to restore American garment workers in the worst way.

[Zimmy44]

52. My job is exportable

I'm sure my job could be done overseas, even tho' it's a white-collar, professional job. It really bugs me that my very own Senator Clinton has been saying that outsourcing is inevitable and can't be stopped; she's even thrown in the towel to the extent of brining a large Indian IT outsourcing company into Buffalo, NY - where they compete with companies staffed with NYers!

[readmoreoften]

56. As a fellow NYer, I say "thanks hil" /nt

[lonestarnot]

54. It ain't pretty! and I care not whether ain't is in the dictionary or not

[Sugar Smack]

58. Jesus Christ.

[Vinnie From Indy]

61. Corporations have no allegiance to any country

The next chapter of human history will see corporations hop-scotching all over the globe seeking the absolute lowest wages to produce their products. Giving corporations the same rights as individuals in the US was one of the first steps. There is no doubt in my mind that the quality of life for Americans is about to reach the apex of the roller coaster. The drop will be stunning.

[Breeze54]

62. What do you mean, "COULD BE??" n/t