London 'under water by 2100'

[cynatnite]

DOZENS of the world’s cities, including London and New York, could be flooded by the end of the century, according to research which suggests that global warming will increase sea levels more rapidly than was previously thought.
The first study to combine computer models of rising temperatures with records of the ancient climate has indicated that sea levels could rise by up to 20ft (6m) by 2100, placing millions of people at risk.

The threat comes from melting ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica, which scientists behind the research now believe are on track to release vast volumes of water significantly more quickly than older models have predicted. Their analysis of events between 129,000 and 116,000 years ago, when the Arctic last warmed to temperatures forecast for 2100, shows that there could be large rises in sea level.

While the Greenland ice sheet is expected to start melting as summer temperatures in the Arctic rise by 3C degrees to 5C (5.4F-9F), most models suggest that the ice sheets of Antarctica will remain more stable.

The historical data, however, show that the last time that Greenland became this warm, the sea level rise generated by meltwater destabilised the Antarctic ice, leading to a much higher increase than can be explained by Arctic ice alone.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,2-2100776,00.html

[Radio_Guy]

1. Not just London

Miami, New York, Boston. Even New Orleans will need 50 foot levees or higher. It will happen sooner than later the rate we are going.

[formerrepuke]

2. Cripes! even in human terms, that's reeeaally soon. And if New York

is flooded, then almost the entire state of Florida would be gone as well. Some countries could conceivably cease to exist- like the Bahamas.

[seemunkee]

4. Tuvalu is already in major trouble

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/asia-pacific/2219001.stm

[Yollam]

7. Tuvalu has fallen victim to erosion, not sea level rise.

Sea level has supposedly only risen by one millimeter in the last century.


Much of the Mississippi delta has also sunk into the ocean as well, but that is due to the levee systems and lack of silt replenishment, not sea level rise.

But what the hey, let's blame that on global warming too!

[Richard D]

3. I don't know why . . .

. . . but somehow I think that the 2100 estimate is conservative.

[quinnox]

5. maybe a big flood

I'd hate to be the geographer around that time, lotsa new country lines.

[Yollam]

6. I know I'm going to get flamed for this, but...

In the last century, sea levels have SUPPOSEDLY risen by ONE MILLIMETER (an amount that is nigh impossible to prove due to erosion and the ever-shifting nature of water. This is despite significant melting of glaciers and ice caps.

Please forgive me for taking these predictions with a grain of salt. This is not to say that I don't support the Kyoto protocols, etc. I do, but drastic predictions like this when sea levels have shown only imperceptible increases thus far strike me as imprudent and potentially embarrassing if they fail to come true.

[cynatnite]

8. Maybe the prediction is extreme...

Hard to say and I imagine it'll be a few more years before people are concerned enough...by then it could very well be too late and we're past the point of no return.

Here's another one, but it's not predicting any submerged cities.

• At the current warming rate, Earth's temperature by 2100 will probably be at least 4 degrees warmer than now, with the Arctic at least as warm as it was 130,000 years ago, reports a research group led by Jonathan T. Overpeck of the University of Arizona.

• Computer models indicate that warming could raise the average temperature in parts of Greenland above freezing for multiple months and could have a substantial impact on melting of the polar ice sheets, says a second paper by researchers led by Bette Otto-Bliesner of the National Center for Atmospheric Research. Melting could raise sea level one to three feet over the next 100 to 150 years, she said.

• And a team led by Goeran Ekstroem of Harvard University reported an increase in "glacial earthquakes," which occur when giant rivers of ice — some as big as Manhattan — move suddenly as meltwater eases their path. That sudden movement causes the ground to tremble.


http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060324/ap_on_sc/polar_ice_melt

[Yollam]

9. I agree there is serious cause for concern.

I just think that these wild predictions are counterproductive.

There is also the risk of bitter cold winters in much of the world if the Gulf Stream shuts down. It's anyone's guess how our pollution will affect the climate. Action definitely needs to be taken, especially with millions of more people in Asia getting cars now...

[LiberalEsto]

10. I'll be selling beachfront property in Rockville, Maryland

And moving to even higher ground.