(Note: The following post is NOT racist, and does not intend to be. If it comes across as racist, it is not my intention. This is a very touchy and emotional subject, so angre over it is unstandable not matter what your opinion. I base my conclusion on a history of ethnic conflicts, such as the Quebecois vis a vis the Anglo-Canadians, the Kurds in Iraq, Hungarians in Romania, Albanians and Bosnians vis a vis Serbians, and the indigenous Mayan-speaking folk of the Chiapas and Yucatan in southern Mexico, as well as the North African rioters in France. I also believe that forced assimilation will only help this scenario happen, and that assimilation can only be encouraged, not forced. Ironically, forced assimilation was one of the causes of Anglo immigrants wanting Texas independence in 1836.)
One of the lesser talked about features of the illegal immigration debate is this one. Unfortunately, when the Freepers talk about it in a racist way. But southwestern secession on the part of Chicanos is not something that is 100% unlikely, if you look at history of other countries, especially Quebec or the Chiapas and Yucatan within Mexico itself, where acts of genocide were committed against the Mayan-speaking peoples and the Quebecois.
Some allege that the current wave of Hispanic immigration is a voluntary effort of "demographic wafare" in order to launch a "reconquista" of California, Texas, Arizona, New Mexico, Nevada, and Colorado. Several Chicano nationalist groups, such as La Raza (which literally means "the race" in Spanish, and refers to the Indigenous/Mestizo race) and Aztlan (which argues that the ancestors of the Aztecs migrated from the present-day southwest, and that the land rightly belongs to them as a result) are essentially "Chicano supremacist" groups. They also show sympathy to Muslim rioters in France and push for the scenario that it could happen here amongst Hispanic Americans:
http://www.aztlan.net/french_muslim_rebellion.htmResentment towards Anglos for the Treaty of Guadaloupe Hidalgo is in fact a mainstream position in Mexico. According to a June 2002 Zogby poll, 58% of Mexicans believe that the southwest belongs to them. Likewise, and possibly as a result, 57% of Mexicans feel that they have the right to enter the U.S. without our permission.
Historical examples of "demographic warfare" include the settlement of Scottish and English Protestants in Northern Ireland (with Royal encouragment and Parliament's encouragement) in order to weaken the influence of the Catholic Church on the island. Land grants given to Slavic Muslims by the Ottomon Empire in present-day Bosnia is another example. However, while Fox is encouraging illegal immigration into the United States, I believe he is doing it for short-term economic gains. Fox feels that by exporting the poor of his country (who he doesn't give a shit about), that he can get rid of them permanately, or at least take in revenue from them that they send back. The Aztlan and La Raza types are the only ones who deliberately support demographic warfare for the sake of secession, not the Mexican government.
What is different about the current wave of immigration to this country, is that is involves mostly one group of people, settling in a geographically-cohesive area of the U.S and unassimilated in many instances. The Chicanos also have an historical animosity towards Anglos or Gringos similar to that of the Quebecois in Quebec against Anglo Canadians. The Mayan-speaking inhabitants of the Chiapas province also have a similar dislike, ironically, towards the rest of Mexico (the Chiapas almost seceeded and considered unification with Guatemala. During the 1840's, the Yucatan province briefly seceeded and became its own country.) Similar incidents arise in Romania, in majority Hungarian-speaking provinces that demand more autonomy, and in Northern Ireland, although this is sectarian rather than ethnic. However, this trend of immigration by itself, contrary to what the Freepers believe, will NOT automatically cause secession of Chicanos. Many Hispanics are somwhat assimilated, and want to make an honest living in this country, but racial and economic problems similar to that of France could trigger secession eventually.
The Muslim riots in France happened because there was an alienated, unassimilated and isolated underclass of Algerians and Moraccans that immigrated to France for economic benefits. Many of these Muslim immigrants are now second or third-generation, and live in suburban ghettos (in European cities, the inner-ring suburbs are often more violent than the inner-cities, the reverse of American urban patterns.) and deal with crime, drugs, and staggering unemployment. In the U.S., we have many Mexican-Americans who live in isolated and dangerous
barrios in places like Los Angeles. If socioeconomic resentment were to boil over from these barrios, it could happen due to increased persecution or during an economic downturn where there is more competition for jobs with non Mexican-Americans. If we force the Mexicans to assimilate in a way similar to Russification in 19th Cenutry Russia, then we encourage this. But if we encourage them to assimilate, learn English in a way that is beneficial, and get out of the barrios by giving them higher wages, then they will join the American middle class in larger numbers, and merge, culturally-speaking, with other ethnic groups in this country, in the same way that the formerly-persecuted Irish, Italians, Jews, and Poles all did. The tricky part about closing the borders is that it comes off as racist (some of its supporters are of the racist Freeper variety) but by closing the borders, punishing greedy corporations, and having fewer workers, wages will go up, and then second and third-genration Hispanic-Americans and other immigrants who are here legally or here can be ensured better pay.
In sum: a "southwest secession movement" can only happen two this scenario:
A large, geographically concentrated, and persecuted group with a history of bad relations with the majority ethnic group, feels compelled to do so. The only way that we can stop this, is to pay better wages, close the borders and replace the system with a limited guest worker program, and for Vicente Fox to treat the poor of his country with more respect and work to fix things on his side of the border.
...BTW, for more on this issue, I suggest picking up "The Untied States of America" by Juan Enriquez. He is a former Mexican official who analyzes America's political and socioeconomic future, and also briefly talks about Quebec and the Chiapas conflicts in Canada and Mexico. He also takes a lot of jabs at Bush. My position is partly derived from reading his book, and from my experience as a history buff.
http://www.randomhouse.com/crown/catalog/display.pperl?isbn=9780307237521
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