The odds of being drafted vs. population growth and a shrinking military

[wuushew]

With all the talk of an unpopular draft as a mechanism for stopping war with Iran, I would like to raise the following points.

During Vietnam the size of the active military was around 3.5 million personnel. The population in 1970 was considerably smaller than today at 120 million. So all things equal an identical war in Southeast Asia would be more tolerated as a function of a domestic draft. Out of 120 million maybe only 8 million men were of the age bracket to be drafted. Certainly many of these would have failed the physical requirements for military service. Those who were eligible to serve vs. those who are were not would have been outnumbered by at least 18:1. Today things even less favorable as the number of koolaid arm-chair bush bots would outnumber military slaves by an even greater factor. The Total population of the U.S. is now 295+ million though the 20-24 male segment has only grown to 10.5 million.


The call for a more egalitarian draft that includes women and homosexuals may actually be politically counter productive as it creates a larger pool of candidates and lessens the individual probability of being killed in the Middle East per concerned voter.


The age group that is currently subject to a draft is one that is not extremely politically motivated. It is true that if one casts a larger net to include those family and spouses negatively affected by war the numbers would be considerably larger. However even prior to the 2004 election the number of total Amerikan casualties was in the tens of thousands. Bush clearly created the catastrophe in Iraq yet not enough votes were obtained to override bigotry, voting fraud and GOP shenanigans. Would a full scale draft help Democratic election chances?

Since Vietnam the U.S. military has continuously improved the number of people it can kill per person with conventional military forces. Vast civilian damage was done by relatively few pilots in the beginning of the shock and awe campaign. Quagmires of the future may not resemble those of the past.


Finally the draft has always been about filling vacancies not taken by volunteers. So the manpower requirements would be (Iran requirement - current fodder = draftees need per year). Even if you are unlucky enough to be born in a year chosen for a draft lottery your odds are still 1/365th of that figure until the vaccanies are filled.


I would like to discuss the psychology of odds, political apathy and the slow to get going inertia of political moments.

[AndyTiedye]

1. The Only Reason ** Hasn't Invaded Iran Yet is a Shortage of Cannon Fodder

The PNAC people need a draft so they can invade more countries.
But they need to make the Democrats take the blame for it.

What to do?
Abuse the Reserve and the National Guard to the breaking point,
and hope that the Democrats will propose the draft out of "fairness".
Then they get their draft, and our party gets utterly destroyed.
There won't be anything fair about it, and we'll be left feeling
like someone who has spent their life savings to buy a bogus title
to the Brooklyn Bridge.

With a true one-party system in place, they can then conscript as
many of us as they want, and invade anywhere they want. With no
opposition left, who could stop them?

Labor unrest becomes a thing of the past as they put the entire
workforce under military command Most actual manufacturing has
already been offshored anyway in preparation for this general
mobilization.

Exemptions will, of course, be available for corporate and government
bigwigs, as long as they continue to support the regime.