Sabato is one smart cookie.

[Perky]

from Larry Sabato this morning.

Democrats may also be playing into Republican hands. No, it's not the Beltway- and blog-based whining about the "lack of a coherent Democratic agenda"--the oft-wished-for Democratic version of the GOP's 1994 Contract with America. The Republican landslide of '94 had little to do with the Contract, popular myth to the contrary. Instead, the out-of-power GOP victory was a direct result of deep dissatisfaction with both President Clinton and the Democratic-controlled Congress. Should the Democrats score a big win this November, the mirror-image of '94 will explain it--unhappiness with Bush and the GOP Congress.

The Democrats' 2006 mistake, if it continues, will be the chorus calling for Bush's censure or impeachment, which has now reached the front pages of prominent newspapers and magazines. This left-wing fantasy has been stoked by many of the usual liberal suspects and bloggers, and also by Senator Russell Feingold of Wisconsin, who failed to consult with his colleagues and has been mainly shunned by them in the aftermath of his censure call. As intended by Feingold, the lefty blogosphere has rallied around the Senator's nascent presidential campaign, and the party's left wing may adopt Feingold as its new Howard Dean.

What is good for Feingold in '08 is poison for Democrats in '06, however. Republican leaders have welcomed the move, already using it to raise money. Mainly, though, censure and impeachment threats are being used to activate the Republican base. Somewhat disgruntled after President Bush's and Congress' missteps in the past year, the GOP base has been in danger of voting at a low rate, giving Democrats the turnout edge for the first time since 2000. But now, Republican leaders can reasonably say that if Democrats gain control of Congress, a serious effort at censure or impeachment will follow. The Democratic hierarchy has been smart enough to realize that the left is on the verge of creating a similar situation to 1998, when GOP efforts to impeach President Clinton produced an electoral backlash. Surprising Democratic triumphs replaced expected Republican congressional gains in Clinton's sixth-year election. How ironic it would be if Democrats in 2006 imitated the Republican goof of 1998, if the "sixth-year itch" turned out to be one that infected Democrats instead of Republicans!

[maddezmom]

1. do you have a link?

:hi:

[Perky]

4. Link

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/article.php?id=LJS2006033001

I actually get this through his newsletter.

[Vinnie From Indy]

2. I guess we see now what the cover story will be when the elections

are stolen again. It is those damn Democrats insisting that president's follow the law that did it. How could we have been so stupid? What mania infects our minds that would make us stand up and merely ask that the rule of law and the Constitution continue to govern this land?

[SammyWinstonJack]

12. !

:thumbsup:

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

16. I can see it now: "Censure Moms Storm To Polls."

[SammyWinstonJack]

28. You are omniscient. bush has made us all that way.

:evilgrin:

[Neil Lisst]

3. Sabato is Shill Number One for the Bushies among academia

In fact, they created him by having him on Fox News. This guy is nothing but a cheap rightwing mouthpiece, every time he opens his mouth.

What are the odds Larry Sabato wants Dems to win in November? ZERO!

He's wrong about this issue, and he's shilling for the Bush administration.

[Perky]

5. Have you read his newsletter

He is completely even-handed. but he is also an academic who has been doing this well before Fox brought him on.

[Neil Lisst]

6. He's a shill. I've watched him shill at least 5 years nonstop.

He's a whore for the Bush administration, irrespective of what his newsletter says. TV is reality, not a newsletter. When he's on TV, he's selling rightwing talking points. Always.

We'll have to agree to disagree, but I want those who read the thread to have another view of Sabato and his intentions.

[Perky]

8. Why in the world are you watching that much Faux news?

If you go back and read his newsletter, be siad that Bush was an idiot for visiting Jerry Kilgore here in VA just before the Novemeber election. Said that it completely doomed Kilgore's campaign and heightened DEM turnout.


Does not sound like a shill to me

[Neil Lisst]

10. Why would I watch Fox News, the Bush Ministry of Propaganda?

Because they're the Bush Ministry of Propaganda, that's why.

I watch ALL the news on cable - CNN, CNBC, MSNBC, and Fox News. Throw in PBS and CSPAN, and you've got it all covered.

[peaches2003]

7. He is well-respected and has been proved correct

The vast middle and independents do not want to vote for what they perceive as extremists. We may be 100% right about Bush and what should be done- impeachment or censure- and have all the facts on our side. But, do we want to get elected or not? You can't get our candidates elected by scaring the daylights out of the uncommitted voters or those who will switch from Bushco. They don't want 'conflict'. Sabato is right.

[Neil Lisst]

9. More Chicken Little talk. The sky is not falling.

Some here believe wrongly that talking of impeachment or censure will hurt elections in November. Because Larry Sabato agrees with those people, suddenly they're waving his banner.

He's wrong, and so are you. The voters are going to vote for the individual candidates in their district, and all this talk of censure or impeachment won't have a blessed thing to do with it.

[KoKo]

14. I'm a Democrat and stand up for my Dem ideals...not worried about the

vast middle and independents. If we Dems stick to what we believe the rest of the country will come along. The Repugs are bankrupt and their corruption is bringing them down. If the "vast middle" and "independents" don't see that then there's something wrong with them and not Democratic Activists who want the Constitution honored and not shredded the way these criminals and thugs occupying the White House now have done, enabled by their hacks in the Congress.

[Neil Lisst]

15. Amen. I was taught by an old time pol in the party.

He said "get them down, and just keep putting it to them!"

There are many issues out there and this is just one. I believe strongly that efforts to limit the discussion of impeachment or censure are primarily those of the rightwing. Bush and Rove would want that talk killed ASAP.

Censure is a good issue for us. Impeachment, not so much. That could wait, and probably should.

[Virginia Dare]

18. I admire your idealism and I hope..

you're correct in all you say.

:hi:

[Perky]

20. Its not about Dems its about money and the GOP Base

Look the villification of Bush is fine by me but Sabato's point is that Rebublican are using this to enflame their base. A base which is back on it heels and might sit down for the elcetion... It is not about what mods will do.. It is about not giving the Repukes reasons to get off of their duffs either to go to the polls or for their checkbooks.

Our Base is fully enflamed. but their base is far more likely to get to the polls if they sense they could lose hold on power.

[KharmaTrain]

21. Sabato Admitted He Is A Repugnican

He used to show up regularly on TV shows during the Clinton inquisition and try to parse a hummer (or the lie about a hummer) into an impeachable offense. No serious academic would play those games...Douglas Brinkley sure didn't...but Sabato did and showed his true partisan stripes.

Then he astroturfed a lot of the "booosh is popular", "boooosh is a regular guy" crap during the 2000 and 2004 elections...coming out with his build up the Democrats early to knock them down later strategy.

One smart facet of the Repugnican spin operation has been its ability to astroturf an issue or manufacture one...build up boogie men that didn't exist or create inferiority where none exists. Sabato is working on sizing up and riling up the Repugnican base and one good way of doing this is scaring them that the Democrats are coming.

Watch this meme to build in the months to come...

[KoKo]

23. Exactly.....well said KharmaTrain. Sabato has no interest in Democrats

speaking up...He has a long history with the other side.

[Strawman]

17. I don't think that's fair

In fact, I Heard Sabato on a during a particularly good segment of the Young Turks a couple weeks ago. He's a political scientist, not a "shill." I don't know if I agree with his conclusions, but he seems to attempt to reach them through objective methods.

[Gabi Hayes]

25. think he's not a pug? two things

read this

http://www.newshounds.us/2006/03/22/fox_news_asks_is_unscripted_questioning_a_good_strategy_for_pres_bush.php

and know this:

my old GF, who went to UVA with Sabato, and had some classes with him, will ASSURE you he's a conservative CREEP

nobody liked him; he was avoided like the smarmy wad he was then, and remains today. they used to make fun of his "hair" back then, too

[Virginia Dare]

11. It is generally accepted is it not...

that the impeachment of Clinton hurt the Republicans overall?
:shrug:

[KoKo]

13. There's a difference. Clinton was wrongfully impeached over a personal

issue pumped up by Right Wingers on a Witch Hunt against him. That's why Republicans were hurt. They saw it as unfair. Clinton's numbers during impeachment were in the low 60's.

Bush deserves Impeachment because he lied to Congress and the Country and took us into an illigal war, his administration is filled with folks who have broken other laws, he is a dangerous incompetent.

Here's what that Repug Operative Sabato said notice how filled with hate and fear his comment is:

This left-wing fantasy has been stoked by many of the usual liberal suspects and bloggers, and also by Senator Russell Feingold of Wisconsin, who failed to consult with his colleagues and has been mainly shunned by them in the aftermath of his censure call. As intended by Feingold, the lefty blogosphere has rallied around the Senator's nascent presidential campaign, and the party's left wing may adopt Feingold as its new Howard Dean.

[Gabi Hayes]

26. hoo boy! could you be more WRONG?

how do you think they planted the seed of democrat perfidy, lasciviousness, etc?

what was the overarching PR message of Bush's first campaign: restore honor and dignity to the whitehouse

how do you think they were able to mine that vein?

jesus

if it hadn't been for that EIGHT YEAR witch hunt, after the most prosperous five year span in US history, the fascists wouldn't have gotten within, uh, spitting distance of Gore. no way they'd have come close enough to steal the election

[Virginia Dare]

29. How do you explain...

Clinton's popularity jump after the impeachment hearings?

:shrug:

[Toots]

19. Well you know what they say about opinions, they are like assholes

everybody has one...:shrug: He is just about as correct as the Republicans have been on every single thing.

[Binka]

22. IMHO Sabato Is Full of Shit

What a thinly veiled attempt to give the Repukes an alibi for the fucking theft they are wont to try again. Sabot stinks. This article is bullshit but I am not surprised that YOU posted it.

[Perky]

24. Gee its nice to be thought so highly of :) N/T

[Gabi Hayes]

27. with all due respect, you are way off about Sabato's bonafides

if you don't believe me, I can get you in touch with somebody who knows him