"End of Suburbia" Oil Depletion + Collapse of the American Dream

[mod mom]

Must see film! Connects peak oil, inevitable decline in fossil fuels, PNAC and the consequences for the future. I went to a public showing in an inner ring suburb. Since our elected leaders are not taking serious actions on this subject (unless you count *'s endless war) it's up to us to get the word out and start acting responsibly and planning for the future.

I purchased the film and am planning a showing with friends in my home. I hope others will do the same to help get the words out.

www.endofsuburbia.com

[4dsc]

1. Most DU'er are in denial about Peak oil

I would also suggest you read POWERDOWN..

[DainBramaged]

2. Not at all

Until we have control of two branches of government, we are powerless to make the necessary changes to prevent the return of mankind to the bushes.

[mod mom]

3. At the showing I attended we had experts from Battelle and OH State

who spoke to the audience afterward. There seems to be slight differences in whether we at are past peak or whether it will arrive in the next few years, but no disagreed that it is in our future. The Battelle expert was an advocate for Nuclear Power and said even if you are a Dem (this was a progressive group) we should look to Nuclear Power to help sustain our lifestyle. This was met with skepticism.

[Nordmadr]

5. This lifestyle is most of what has gotten us in this pickle.

I think people need to be convinced and prepared to modify what they have come to expect as a lifestyle. Sustainability and Ecology being the two terms that come directly to mind. If we just want to adjust to maintain a lifestyle, we are not seeing the bigger picture. We will simply delay a crash until a time when we reach another cultural limiting factor.

Olafr

[itzamirakul]

14. The problem with convincing people to modify what they have come to

expect as a "lifestyle" is that there will always be the ultra greedy, like Abramoff and his ilk. These are people who want more and more and more while the rest of us try to live fairly and modestly.

[JohnyCanuck]

7. Are nukes the solution?

Peak oil solutions: Is simpler better?

by Kurt Cobb

Is complexity bad for us? Is simpler better?

Joseph Tainter first posited in his book, "The Collapse of Complex Societies," that complex societies most frequently attempt to solve their problems by increasing their complexity. This usually requires the input of additional energy from people or fuel sources or both. This strategy may be a good one when returns from complexity are high. But, such a strategy may also subject a society to collapse. Returns tend to diminish as complexity increases. Ultimately, returns go negative. In short, more complexity isn't necessarily better.

For Tainter there are many reasons to believe that contemporary civilization has reached the point of diminishing returns from complexity. If he is correct, this calls into question proposals for technical fixes for our energy problems since by definition those fixes will increase complexity in an energy-starved world. Will solar platforms in space or a vastly increased number of nuclear power plants lead to a more stable, sustainable society? There are many ecological reasons to doubt this in the long run. But there are historical reasons to believe that these things might not even work in the short run, say, the next several decades. Increased complexity may result in less resiliency in our current world system making it vulnerable to novel or persistent shocks. Terrorist attacks on infrastructure and proposals to militarize space are just two that relate to the examples given above.

http://www.energybulletin.net/6432.html

I tend to be skeptical of the nuke option myself. Right now just about every aspect of our economies is subsidized by cheap oil, including the construction, maintenance and decommissioning of nuclear power plants. When the cheap oil drys up we could be leaving a real time bomb to future generations to take care of in the form of nuclear plants that can't be operated safely nor properly decomissioned, and that does not even take into account the matter of safely storing the nuclear waste products for aeons into the future.

On another topic, Greg Greene from "End of Suburbia" also has a follow up documentary in the works, "Escape from Suburbia." Not sure when it will be out, but I believe it should be sometime this year. They've already got a website registered, www.escapefromsuburbia.com , but so far it only says "under construction."

Greg Greene made The End of Suburbia with editor Barry Sliverthorn, about the way the so-called American dream will be affected by an end to cheap energy.

SNIP

"In Escape I wanted to look at the people who really were trying to make some kind of impact over the energy question. Right now. Who were the people who had a future without cheap oil? Who were the ones who didn't want to waste any time waiting around for it to hit them?

"After all, every time you even see a Hollywood science fiction movie, say AI or I-Robot, the futures predicted are always energy rich. It takes some foresight for people to actually start planning now, for a future in which we all may be energy poor."

SNIP

Greene says his new film will not just be about technical energy questions, it will be about the people who are trying to address them.

"These are people who are anticipating massive social changes based on energy becoming much more expensive. That is what we are going to look at. Their futures, our futures, could be vastly different depending on the success or failure of their projects. Very different indeed."

http://www.countercurrents.org/peakoil-porter120105.htm

In addtion to "Escape From Suburbia," there is a new documentary on Peak Oil called "Oil Crash" that is about to be released. The web site is www.oilcrashmovie.com . Unfortunately I find the web site hard to read with its light brown text on a dark brown background. However the've got some trailers you can download for anyone who is interested.

[mod mom]

9. Thanks for the info! nt

[JohnyCanuck]

15. Have you heard Bartlett's talk on exponential growth yet?

Another good video to watch if you haven't seen it yet is retired Physics Prof. Albert Bartlett's lecture on exponential growth patterns and the effect exponential growth has on resource consumption.

Basically, whenever any quantity grows continuously without interruption the original quantity will double in size at some point. That doubling time can be easily calculated by dividing the percentage increase into the number 70. So for example, world oil consumption is currently estimated to be increasing at 2% per year which would mean that in 35 years (70/2 = 35) world oil consumption will be double what it is today (assuming a steady annual 2% growth and adequate supplies of oil).

The other ramification of this doubling in consumption is that in the 35 years from 2006 to 2041 we would use more oil altogether than has been used in all time up to the start of our calculation in 2006. Oil was first pumped on a commercial basis around 1860, so it would mean that in 35 years from 2006 to 2041 the world would use more oil than had been pumped out of the ground in the previous 146 years from 1860 to 2006.

Professor Bartlett's lecture is not very math intensive for anyone who might be a mathopobe, basically if you can figure out percentages and multiply and divide you've got all the math background it takes - very enlightening, and it has relevance not just to energy consumption and the projected oil shortages of Peak Oil but all sorts of areas related to planning for the future eg. waste disposal, urban planning etc.

Here is a link to an MP4 version of the lecture suitable for dial up. MP4s are playable with Apple Quick Time. You can also right click and select "save as" to save the file to your hard drive first rather than just stream the video by left clicking.

http://news.globalfreepress.com/movs/Al_Bartlett-PeakOil.mp4

Other video (Real Player format) and MP3 audio streaming links to the lecture are available on this page: http://www.globalpublicmedia.com/lectures/461

[Bushwick Bill]

19. Absolutely frightening.

Another link here.
http://edison.ncssm.edu/programs/colloquia/bartlett.ram

[JohnyCanuck]

20. I like his comparison of democracy to "freedom of the bathroom."

As Bartlett explains it when you are only one of two people with access to the bathroom it would be relatively easy for you to say that you believe in the principle of "freedom of the bathroom," i.e. everyone should have access to the bathroom as often and for as long as he likes. However, as the number of people needing to use the same single bathroom grows, you eventually need to set up schedules for bathroom visits, shorten the length of time users can spend in the bathroom, have more people waiting cross-legged and hopping up and down outside while someone else finishes up before they can get in to use the bathroom etc.

At some point the potential develops for arguments and disputes to arise as inevitably some users would start to feel they were being cheated out of their bathroom time by other users who took too long, didn't follow the schedule, barged in to have a tinkle while someone else was taking a shower etc. When that point is reached the principles of "freedom of the bathroom" get pitched out the window.

Similarly, with too many people chasing too few resources the same potential exists for all sorts of disputes and fights to arise over sharing those resources, and should those disputes and fights get serious enough the likelihood of our democratic principles being abandoned in an effort to maintain order increases.

[Name removed]

8. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[loudestchick]

11. Again? Blah Blah! You are definitely a one trick pony.

By the way, I grow my own garden.

[mod mom]

23. Who is the author? Husband went to order it, but couldn't find it on B+N.

[JohnyCanuck]

24. Richard Heinberg is the author of Powerdown

Amazon has it:
http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0865715106/sr=8-1/qid=1143830353/ref=pd_bbs_1/104-3553822-7847926?%5Fencoding=UTF8

[mod mom]

30. thanks for the info! nt

[Nordmadr]

4. I second the vote for "Powerdown". It is an excellent, but disturbing,

read.

A number of government agencies have released information on this and mentioned it in studies. As far as I know, they all say we should have long since begun intense preparation. We have not on a societal level. I don't know how bad it will get, or how quickly it will happen, but I am not looking forward to finding out.

Experts generally give us between now and 15 years before peak. Personally, I think were barely holding our plateau right now.

Olafr

[mod mom]

6. Matthew Simmons, Energy Banker who I believe was part of Cheney's Energy

Task Force gave a candid discussion. All the experts (Colin Campbell-Petroleum Geologist; James Howard Kunstler, writer and "New Urbanist"; Kenneth Deyyeyes, Professor Emeritus at Princeton U: and Michael Klare, Professor of Peace and World Security Studies were included among others.

[Bigmack]

10. Netflix has it... very long wait. nt

nt

[Theres-a]

21. That's where we got it nt

[alcibiades_mystery]

12. Fuck the American Dream

As Malcolm said, "It don't mean you..."

[Odin2005]

13. Too many DU's think Big Oil is intentionally gouging us...

...when really they are just taking advantage of the soaring oil prices caused by demand increasing rapidly at the same time production is peaking and laughing the way to the bank.

[dogday]

16. Demand that is always at the same time?

Would it not make sense to increase all production by a percentage, so the extra can be stored and gas prices would not be so high... It's not like this does not happen every year... You can set your watch by it....

With the Oil companies making over 8 billion in profits in just one quarter, I would say they have a big hand in what is happening...

[Odin2005]

27. Demand is increasing rapidly because of China.

And we CAN'T increae production by a precentage, production is peaking for geological reasons, you can't beat the laws of physics.

[Bushwick Bill]

17. Best intros to the subject here.

http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net
http://www.rollingstone.com/news/story/7203633/the_long_emergency/?rnd=1143735101955&has-player=true&version=6.0.12.1040
http://www.peakoil.com/sample/index.html
http://www.globalresearch.ca/articles/PFE307A.html

The dieoff site is always worth some laughs.
http://www.dieoff.com/
http://www.dieoff.com/synopsis.htm

Very good speeches from Matt Simmons here.
http://www.simmonsco-intl.com/research.aspx?Type=researchspeeches

Everyone should consider this anecdote. As of a year or two ago, the biggest oil field in the world, Ghawar, had produced 55 billion barrels to date (everyone agrees on numbers produced). The Saudis say that this field has 125 billion barrels remaining. Simmons had a talk with a neighbor who was an old Chairman at Texaco, who insists that field never had more than around 61 billion barrels total. So, the biggest oil field in the world might have 6 billion barrels of oil remaining, while we're told it has 125 billion barrels left. Uh, that may be a little bit of a problem.

So we were chuckling about that, and I said, “Hey Butch, tell me now, seriously, back in the ‘70s, how dumb were you guys?” Butch is about 6 ft 8 in., and he looks at me and says, “Well you're not calling me dumb are you?” And I said, “No, I'm just joking.” But I told him these numbers and said, “Your best people at Aramco thought that Ghawar had 61-billion barrels and it has now produced 55-billion barrels, but the Saudis claim that Ghawar has another 125-billion barrels that it can recover; 126 plus 60 is 180, could you have missed Ghawar by 3-fold?” And it's the first time I’ve ever seen this gentleman not in a jovial mood. He said, “Those are real numbers, you know. We couldn’t have missed by over 20 percent - that's impossible.” And he said, “We had better people working on these calculations back in the ‘70s.” Because we’ve really deteriorated as a society in the ability to do these complicated reserve calculations; ah, we've created a generation of what a couple of my scientist friends call ‘Nintendo Geologists’ who just sit at a workstation and do modeling and say, “Oh, look at that field.” And if it turns out that the old ‘75 numbers are right, then we really are almost to the end of the miracle, and we should be preparing for the beginning of steep declines in the 5 great fields, and so my bottom line on all this is not to say I know that this is going to happen, because I don’t, but I think this is an enormous worry for the well-being of the world, and I happen to believe that, in fact, as much as you might dislike energy, it's the best thing that we ever had, and it’s modern energy that's created basically every aspect of our society today, and unfortunately, there are still 5-billion people on earth who are just starting to use modern energy, and this is a bad time to say, “Oh, no, that era ended.”
http://www.energybulletin.net/1264.html

[KansDem]

18. This is showing in the Kansas City area in April and May...

For those of you in NE Kansas or NW Missouri:

Sunday, April 2nd, 1:30 pm
Central Resource Branch of the Johnson County Public Library
9875 W. 87th St
Overland Park, KS
[phone]

Sunday, April 9th, 1:30 pm
Waldo Branch of the Kansas City Public Library
201 E. 75th St
Kansas City, MO
[phone]

Sunday, April 23rd, 1:30 pm
Plaza Branch of the Kansas City Public Library
4801 Main St
Kansas City, MO
[phone]

Sunday, May 7th, 1:30 pm
Lackman Branch of the Johnson County Public Library
15345 W. 87th St Pkwy
Lenexa, KS
[phone]

(call to confirm)

Thanks, mod mom, for posting this! :hi:

[loudestchick]

22. Cool , thanks for the heads up. Now, how do I choose?

I'm half way between Plaza and Waldo...decisions...decisions, wait! I can go to both!:bounce:

[JohnyCanuck]

25. More streaming video links on Peak oil related topics

Click here for live links to the video streams listed below:
http://www.oriononline.org/pages/oo/curwis/index_Curwis.html

The Long Emergency
Surviving the Converging Catastrophes of the Twenty-First Century

A five-week video exploration
with author. lecturer, and de facto cultural historian
James Howard Kunstler


PART ONE: How the Hell Did We Get Here? (6:18)
Before trying to figure out how we're going to get out of the oil mess we're in, it might help to know a bit about how it all happened. Kunstler offers a casual history of the industrial experience (fossil fuel use), from the 17th century up to the modern period.
PLAY NOW: WindowsMedia V.8 or QuickTime V.6

PART TWO: Hubbert's Curve, and Other Inconvenient Facts (8:11)
On the rise of OPEC and the turbulent 1970s -- how it all happened, and what it means for us today.
PLAY NOW: Windows Media V.8 or QuickTime V.6

PART THREE: Reagan's Short-Lived "Morning in America" (7:11)
On the 1980s, the 1990s, the "Jiminy Cricket" economy, and an awful lot of wishful thinking about alternative energy.
PLAY NOW: Windows Media V.8 or QuickTime V.6

PART FOUR: The Twilight of Wal-Mart (and Everything Else That's Huge)
On the symptoms of systemic failure. Without cheap oil for transport, will Wal-Mart be able to maintain its long-distance romance with China? Will FEMA even be able to answer the phone in twenty years?
PLAY NOW: Windows Media V.8 or QuickTime V.6

Coming April 3rd, 2006
PART FIVE: Keeping the Lights On
On facing the New Reality. We can begin to envision and to build a post-oil "American Way of Life?" But are Americans ready? Are they even listening?

Kunstler's blog is http://jameshowardkunstler.typepad.com . Usually updated with a new post every Monday.

[Lisa]

26. quite good -- I'm showing it in class next week ...

Since it's not all doom-and-gloom, and does suggest some practical changes (last year's class was particularly taken with the commercial strip redesign shown in the film ... people started saying "ooh, so that's why you started us out with that urban planning lab") -- it won't bum the audience out too much and leave them feeling like they've been run over by a herd of SUVs.

[Lexingtonian]

28. Yikes

Is today Apocalypticism Day on DU, or what?

[Karmadillo]

29. Thanks for posting. Interesting site.

nt