Democrat Busby WAY ahead of Kaloogian in the SurveyUSA Poll

[im10ashus]

Analysis: In a Special Primary for the U.S. House of Representatives in California's 50th Congressional District today, 3/28/06, Democrat Francine Busby tops a crowded field of Republicans, but falls just short of the majority needed to avoid a runoff June 6th. With 2 weeks to the 4/11 Primary, Busby is at 45%, trailed by Republican Eric Roach at 14%, Republican Howard Kaloogian at 12%, and Republican Brian Bilbray at 10%. Busby is supported by 85% of Democrats, half of Independents, and 10% of Republicans. Kaloogian and Roach are each supported by 23% of Republicans. The district is heavily Republican and whichever Republican survives the Primary would be favored in a runoff, but the Democrats have a chance to capture the seat if Busby can top 50% in the Primary. Busby gets 53% among female voters. The larger the turnout among women, the better Busby's chances to avoid a runoff. The 50th Congressional seat is vacant; Republican Randy "Duke" Cunningham resigned on 11/28/2005.

Filtering: 800 registered voters from California's 50th Congressional District, identified using Registration Based Sample from Aristotle International, were interviewed 3/25/06 - 3/27/06. Of them, 404 were judged to be "likely voters". Crosstabs reflect Likely Special Primary voters.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReportEmail.aspx?g=40f955c2-605d-4fad-be76-5b450e3f08c7

[AX10]

1. KICK and recomended!

[Rose Siding]

2. She has to break 50% or the repub numbers could combine in a run off

kick

[im10ashus]

4. That would be a beautiful thing.

Given that district is a republican bastion.

[The_Casual_Observer]

3. Nobody is going to vote for Kangaroo.

[WI_DEM]

5. Let's hope she breaks 50% to avoid a run-off against the highest

scoring Republican.

[im10ashus]

6. Here's her latest press release:

Encinitas, CA – Francine Busby, candidate for California’s 50th Congressional District, continues to lead the field 20 days prior to the April 11th special election. Busby earned the support of 39% of the electorate in a matchup with 17 other candidates and led her nearest competitor by 25%.

Busby also released a new ad that began airing over the weekend here in San Diego emphasizing her willingness to work with both parties and stand up to the President Bush when he is wrong.

“It’s not about Republicans versus Democrats,” says Busby in her new ad. “I’m willing to work with anyone to get our country moving in the right direction.”

The poll, conducted by Lake Research Partners, also showed that President Bush’s approval rating in the district is at 38% and that by a 47-38 margin, voters prefer a candidate who will provide a check on the President’s agenda over a candidate who will blindly support the President’s policies.

cont'd...

http://www.francinebusby2006.org/downloads/pressroom/20060327_pr_busby-leading.pdf